3 ms·

Linkbait headline. Without context, these figures mean nothing. You can see the debt-to-GDP ratios here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https:

by cs702 7mo ago

Linkbait headline. Without context, these figures mean nothing. You can see the debt-to-GDP ratios here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDGDPA188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDGDPA188S

skyberrys 7mo ago
Am I supposed to take away from these plots that we are all good since it's been steadily above the prior record in 1940 since 2020? Or is everything okay since it was really going up and it did course correct to a bit more of a straight line recently? The article seems to be communicating that this rate of spending is not sustainable.
- jmalicki 7mo ago
  Japan debt/GDP is more than twice the US's. https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/11792/what-level-of-government-debt-to-gdp-ratio-is-sustainable https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/11792/what-lev... Not to say that it's okay, and Japan's economy certainly has issues with stagnation due to the debt load, but it's also not a "we have imminent hyperinflation" kind of thing either. The concern with the past five months isn't so much the level of debt, it's the rate of change - we're increasing it faster than in the past... and this isn't a COVID-level crisis or a 2008-style deep recession either where Keynesian logic might make more sense.
  - arthurcolle 7mo ago
    Is Japan still the largest creditor in the world???
  - andriy_koval 7mo ago
    > Japan debt/GDP is more than twice the US's. Japan borrows on 0.75% interest rate compared to current US's 3.5%.
    - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
      This is old information. Japan's borrowing costs have spiked and are ~2.18% as of this comment. Yields are surging due to their debt load (currently ~240% of GDP). Citations: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/business/jgb-trade-excitement.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/business/jgb-trade-excite... https://www.axios.com/2026/01/26/japan-bond-market-dollar-yen https://www.axios.com/2026/01/26/japan-bond-market-dollar-ye... https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026012067/japans-long-bond-yields-surge-to-record-highs-why-it-may-be-a-problem-beyond-tokyo https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026012067/japa... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-japan-can-escape-its-debt-overhang https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-japan-can-escape-its... https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dz11pykwno https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dz11pykwno
DivingForGold 7mo ago
mirror: https://archive.ph/N4tZ9 https://archive.ph/N4tZ9
SilverElfin 7mo ago
The article has more details than just the headline. For example: > Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), said that interest payments on the debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion this year, and will surpass $2 trillion by 2036. That’s very concerning. There’s no plan to run balanced budgets and stop deficits. And no plan to reduce debt. And no plan on economic competitiveness against China. American politics is mostly dominated by irrelevant things that won’t fix the fundamental problems that will come to affect us in the future.
- whattheheckheck 7mo ago
  The plan is a smash and grab for whoever is smart enough to scam there way through it amd then probably default like every other empire
- skeledrew 7mo ago
  They can always at some point pull a modern day Nixon Shock and cancel everything. Make all that debt go poof.
treebeard901 7mo ago
The real question is what percentage of GDP is directly created (or continues to exist) because of the increased debt. When this metric was created the GDP was more authentic and not debt driven.
happymellon 7mo ago
That looks pretty bad, and getting worse.
jsiepkes 7mo ago
The article literary addresses this: > Economists aren’t necessarily worried by the total level of debt (in fact, government debt is a necessary foundation of global markets). Rather it’s the debt-to-GDP ratio, which measures a nation’s borrowing against its growth

by cs702 7mo ago

skyberrys 7mo ago

Am I supposed to take away from these plots that we are all good since it's been steadily above the prior record in 1940 since 2020? Or is everything okay since it was really going up and it did course correct to a bit more of a straight line recently? The article seems to be communicating that this rate of spending is not sustainable.

jmalicki 7mo ago
Japan debt/GDP is more than twice the US's. https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/11792/what-level-of-government-debt-to-gdp-ratio-is-sustainable https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/11792/what-lev... Not to say that it's okay, and Japan's economy certainly has issues with stagnation due to the debt load, but it's also not a "we have imminent hyperinflation" kind of thing either. The concern with the past five months isn't so much the level of debt, it's the rate of change - we're increasing it faster than in the past... and this isn't a COVID-level crisis or a 2008-style deep recession either where Keynesian logic might make more sense.
- arthurcolle 7mo ago
  Is Japan still the largest creditor in the world???
- andriy_koval 7mo ago
  > Japan debt/GDP is more than twice the US's. Japan borrows on 0.75% interest rate compared to current US's 3.5%.
  - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
    This is old information. Japan's borrowing costs have spiked and are ~2.18% as of this comment. Yields are surging due to their debt load (currently ~240% of GDP). Citations: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/business/jgb-trade-excitement.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/business/jgb-trade-excite... https://www.axios.com/2026/01/26/japan-bond-market-dollar-yen https://www.axios.com/2026/01/26/japan-bond-market-dollar-ye... https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026012067/japans-long-bond-yields-surge-to-record-highs-why-it-may-be-a-problem-beyond-tokyo https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026012067/japa... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-japan-can-escape-its-debt-overhang https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-japan-can-escape-its... https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dz11pykwno https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dz11pykwno

DivingForGold 7mo ago

mirror: https://archive.ph/N4tZ9 https://archive.ph/N4tZ9

SilverElfin 7mo ago

The article has more details than just the headline. For example: > Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), said that interest payments on the debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion this year, and will surpass $2 trillion by 2036. That’s very concerning. There’s no plan to run balanced budgets and stop deficits. And no plan to reduce debt. And no plan on economic competitiveness against China. American politics is mostly dominated by irrelevant things that won’t fix the fundamental problems that will come to affect us in the future.

whattheheckheck 7mo ago
The plan is a smash and grab for whoever is smart enough to scam there way through it amd then probably default like every other empire
skeledrew 7mo ago
They can always at some point pull a modern day Nixon Shock and cancel everything. Make all that debt go poof.

treebeard901 7mo ago

The real question is what percentage of GDP is directly created (or continues to exist) because of the increased debt. When this metric was created the GDP was more authentic and not debt driven.

happymellon 7mo ago

That looks pretty bad, and getting worse.

jsiepkes 7mo ago

The article literary addresses this: > Economists aren’t necessarily worried by the total level of debt (in fact, government debt is a necessary foundation of global markets). Rather it’s the debt-to-GDP ratio, which measures a nation’s borrowing against its growth