One under-discussed coupling here is war-risk insurance. Even if you assume you can physically route around the Red Sea or queue for escorted transits, the cos

One under-discussed coupling here is war-risk insurance. Even if you assume you can physically route around the Red Sea or queue for escorted transits, the cost/availability of coverage can dominate the actual freight rate. A $/bbl/day premium that looks small at baseline becomes enormous once you multiply it by (a) crisis multipliers and (b) the holding time you incur from delays/port congestion. That creates a nonlinear feedback: higher perceived risk -> higher premium -> fewer sailings -> more delay -> higher premium. I built a small terminal simulator to explore those dynamics (physical cargo + futures + insurance + random events + ceasefire crash): https://rentry.co/5ske8k8z https://rentry.co/5ske8k8z