The shipping disruption has a second-order impact that I haven't seen discussed much: fertilizer. Five of the world's largest fertilizer exporters — Iran, Saud

The shipping disruption has a second-order impact that I haven't seen discussed much: fertilizer. Five of the world's largest fertilizer exporters — Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain — rely almost entirely on Hormuz to ship their products. These aren't boutique exports. They supply a meaningful fraction of global nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The chain: fertilizer prices spike → farmers plant less or reduce application → crop yields fall → grain prices rise → food-importing countries face hard choices. This runs on a different clock than the oil shock. The oil price spike is visible today. The food impact plays out over months — the planting decisions being made right now (under price uncertainty, with fertilizer supply chains disrupted) will shape harvests in June-August. Egypt's president already declared a "state of near-emergency" on inflation. Hormuz blocking energy exports makes headlines. Hormuz blocking fertilizer exports is quieter — but for import-dependent food economies, it's potentially more consequential over a 6-12 month horizon. Shipping insurance up 400% makes everything worse. A $250K/tanker surcharge doesn't just affect oil ships — every container ship, bulk carrier, and LNG tanker operating in the region pays more, and those costs flow forward to consumers of whatever those ships carry.