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I find the "K-shaped" recovery a very compelling narrative. Some companies are going stratospheric, some are decaying, the average is +1% growth or so. So depen

I find the "K-shaped" recovery a very compelling narrative. Some companies are going stratospheric, some are decaying, the average is +1% growth or so. So depending on where you are, you will see the economy as either booming or floundering. There's plenty of little nuggets like this to point to. US 2025 GDP ex AI investment was in a recession. US equity market ex tech does not outperform e.g. Europe. And so on.

tonyedgecombe 8mo ago
I'm not sure that means much. Absent AI investors would have put their money somewhere else.
- rich_sasha 8mo ago
  Depends where the money came from. If it's debt / optimistic raises based on great faith in AI, not necessarily. But agreed overall. The tech one is more compelling. The US equity market dominance has been driven by it's very successful tech business. Everything else is perhaps in a similar malaise to eg Europe.
- scoofy 8mo ago
  Imagine a consumer packaged goods fund that focuses on premium consumer packaged goods, like the kind of more cutesy stuff you may have seen on the shelves at places like Whole Foods. You would think that the fund is doing poorly because people have less money to spend in general. However, in a K-shaped recovery, the premium goods should actually over-perform the standard options, because the people who are on tight budgets and moving to the value options, well, they weren't really buying the premium items in the first place. Markets have an obscene number of variables to consider in any analysis. An industry can be doing both good and bad depending on what the product is, and who the customer is. At the end of the day, I continue to believe the Housing Theory of Everything thesis when it comes to the sense that people are on an economic treadmill where nothing ever gets better. And it helps describe the engine behind the K-shaped recovery. If we can fix the rent-seeking, we should be able to get back to a world where a rising tide lifts all boats. https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-everything/ https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-every...
d2ou 7mo ago
Is there any report on the distribution of growth per firm ? (Interested for example by the median of firm growth). Could be a good evidence to support this inequal repartition of growth argument).
deleted 7mo ago
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tonyedgecombe 8mo ago

I'm not sure that means much. Absent AI investors would have put their money somewhere else.

rich_sasha 8mo ago
Depends where the money came from. If it's debt / optimistic raises based on great faith in AI, not necessarily. But agreed overall. The tech one is more compelling. The US equity market dominance has been driven by it's very successful tech business. Everything else is perhaps in a similar malaise to eg Europe.
scoofy 8mo ago
Imagine a consumer packaged goods fund that focuses on premium consumer packaged goods, like the kind of more cutesy stuff you may have seen on the shelves at places like Whole Foods. You would think that the fund is doing poorly because people have less money to spend in general. However, in a K-shaped recovery, the premium goods should actually over-perform the standard options, because the people who are on tight budgets and moving to the value options, well, they weren't really buying the premium items in the first place. Markets have an obscene number of variables to consider in any analysis. An industry can be doing both good and bad depending on what the product is, and who the customer is. At the end of the day, I continue to believe the Housing Theory of Everything thesis when it comes to the sense that people are on an economic treadmill where nothing ever gets better. And it helps describe the engine behind the K-shaped recovery. If we can fix the rent-seeking, we should be able to get back to a world where a rising tide lifts all boats. https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-everything/ https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-every...

d2ou 7mo ago

Is there any report on the distribution of growth per firm ? (Interested for example by the median of firm growth). Could be a good evidence to support this inequal repartition of growth argument).

deleted 7mo ago

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