4 ms·

I'm expecting China to go after Taiwan any day now. Im assuming they're waiting for the US to move more resources to the ME so they can get a jump.

by chneu 7mo ago

bluGill 7mo ago
I doupt it. China is preparing, but their war machine is still building up and they know it. Eventually I expect it, but not for a few more years. of course things can change and I've been wrong. That is my best guess though.
bluegatty 7mo ago
Probably not, they are preparing but that does not mean they will ever do it. Xi just faced a mutiny and had to put top generals away. Key people in China military oppose the plans. Even as they near readiness with some things, others remain far behind, and untested. It's an extremely risky move and they don't take those kinds of risks. Island landing 100 km away = Chinese D-Day means absolutely enormous casualties, and no guarantees of success. If they lose that fight, CPP will be overthrown, that sounds dramatic, but those are the stakes at that level esp. with casualties. The #1 objective is to infiltrate and take it without a fight, and/or cause pain and get citiznes to take the 'easy pill' and Taiwan slowly comes into China fold without ever any incident at all. Barring that a blockade would be the thing, and then only usa could even hope to run it, it would be a sight to see, and very hard for us to do as China has long range weapons now and many things specifically designed to keep USN away from 1st island chain, means they can strangle Taiwan into submission with no invasion. But if that happens, USN closes gulf and Malaca straigths, probably goes into S. China Sea. Very bad. China needs food and fuel to import. It's very complex and China is not a monolith, many actors, it's authoritarian yet citizens are not dummies, they protest all the time we just don't hear about it. Probably the chances are most acute 2029-early 2030s. This is from former Australian PM Kevin Rudd how is Western World's #1 non-Chinese China expert. Xi is playing against bad headwinds though and the direct opportunity may not resent itself. If they 'thought like us' and were a bit more decisive and risky, yes, 'now' would be a grand time to do it, wouldn't it? But no.
- FpUser 7mo ago
  >"If they lose that fight, CPP will be overthrown," Xi will be probably burned at the stake. CPP will most likely proceed with new leader.
  - bluegatty 7mo ago
    Yes, that's probably right.

I'm expecting China to go after Taiwan any day now. Im assuming they're waiting for the US to move more resources to the ME so they can get a jump.

by chneu 7mo ago

I'm expecting China to go after Taiwan any day now. Im assuming they're waiting for the US to move more resources to the ME so they can get a jump.

bluGill 7mo ago

I doupt it. China is preparing, but their war machine is still building up and they know it. Eventually I expect it, but not for a few more years. of course things can change and I've been wrong. That is my best guess though.

bluegatty 7mo ago

Probably not, they are preparing but that does not mean they will ever do it. Xi just faced a mutiny and had to put top generals away. Key people in China military oppose the plans. Even as they near readiness with some things, others remain far behind, and untested. It's an extremely risky move and they don't take those kinds of risks. Island landing 100 km away = Chinese D-Day means absolutely enormous casualties, and no guarantees of success. If they lose that fight, CPP will be overthrown, that sounds dramatic, but those are the stakes at that level esp. with casualties. The #1 objective is to infiltrate and take it without a fight, and/or cause pain and get citiznes to take the 'easy pill' and Taiwan slowly comes into China fold without ever any incident at all. Barring that a blockade would be the thing, and then only usa could even hope to run it, it would be a sight to see, and very hard for us to do as China has long range weapons now and many things specifically designed to keep USN away from 1st island chain, means they can strangle Taiwan into submission with no invasion. But if that happens, USN closes gulf and Malaca straigths, probably goes into S. China Sea. Very bad. China needs food and fuel to import. It's very complex and China is not a monolith, many actors, it's authoritarian yet citizens are not dummies, they protest all the time we just don't hear about it. Probably the chances are most acute 2029-early 2030s. This is from former Australian PM Kevin Rudd how is Western World's #1 non-Chinese China expert. Xi is playing against bad headwinds though and the direct opportunity may not resent itself. If they 'thought like us' and were a bit more decisive and risky, yes, 'now' would be a grand time to do it, wouldn't it? But no.

FpUser 7mo ago
>"If they lose that fight, CPP will be overthrown," Xi will be probably burned at the stake. CPP will most likely proceed with new leader.
- bluegatty 7mo ago
  Yes, that's probably right.