5 ms·

The gulf states are US allies that can much more easily be hit + cause damage. They are Iran's regional enemies, that the US is effectively defending them from

The gulf states are US allies that can much more easily be hit + cause damage. They are Iran's regional enemies, that the US is effectively defending them from. Spooking the their leaders + population puts a huge amount of pressure on Trump. Iran has been successful in hitting Patriot and THAAD radars, those are massively expensive, years to replace. If those go down, then Iran can 'terrorize' the region at will including keeping Hormuz closed. Most of the Oil goes to China + India, and China is a supporter of Iran, so funny enough, they may be the one's to lean on Iran to open up. At the same time China does not want to see Iran fall Venezuela style - it would put the US foot on the neck of China as they import most of their fuel. Nobody is talking about the 'China' angle, but they have been preparing for war in Taiwan, and securing energy access with Iran - even hosting peace talks between Gulf states and Iran (huge move, USA not present) is key to that. This is absolutely part of the 'Great Game' strategy, to take Iran Oil + relationship off the table for China. Not likely to happen. The AI bubble is probably not a primary objective.

chneu 8mo ago
I'm expecting China to go after Taiwan any day now. Im assuming they're waiting for the US to move more resources to the ME so they can get a jump.
- bluGill 8mo ago
  I doupt it. China is preparing, but their war machine is still building up and they know it. Eventually I expect it, but not for a few more years. of course things can change and I've been wrong. That is my best guess though.
- bluegatty 8mo ago
  Probably not, they are preparing but that does not mean they will ever do it. Xi just faced a mutiny and had to put top generals away. Key people in China military oppose the plans. Even as they near readiness with some things, others remain far behind, and untested. It's an extremely risky move and they don't take those kinds of risks. Island landing 100 km away = Chinese D-Day means absolutely enormous casualties, and no guarantees of success. If they lose that fight, CPP will be overthrown, that sounds dramatic, but those are the stakes at that level esp. with casualties. The #1 objective is to infiltrate and take it without a fight, and/or cause pain and get citiznes to take the 'easy pill' and Taiwan slowly comes into China fold without ever any incident at all. Barring that a blockade would be the thing, and then only usa could even hope to run it, it would be a sight to see, and very hard for us to do as China has long range weapons now and many things specifically designed to keep USN away from 1st island chain, means they can strangle Taiwan into submission with no invasion. But if that happens, USN closes gulf and Malaca straigths, probably goes into S. China Sea. Very bad. China needs food and fuel to import. It's very complex and China is not a monolith, many actors, it's authoritarian yet citizens are not dummies, they protest all the time we just don't hear about it. Probably the chances are most acute 2029-early 2030s. This is from former Australian PM Kevin Rudd how is Western World's #1 non-Chinese China expert. Xi is playing against bad headwinds though and the direct opportunity may not resent itself. If they 'thought like us' and were a bit more decisive and risky, yes, 'now' would be a grand time to do it, wouldn't it? But no.
  - FpUser 8mo ago
    >"If they lose that fight, CPP will be overthrown," Xi will be probably burned at the stake. CPP will most likely proceed with new leader.
    - bluegatty 8mo ago
      Yes, that's probably right.
cassepipe 8mo ago
Can't China negotiate with Iran safe passage for its own oil only?
- tartoran 8mo ago
  Not very likely. If only China bound oil passes through the strait all others would oppose, even destroy the tankers.
  - bluegatty 8mo ago
    Goodness, no. The only entity interested in attacking tankers is China. Everyone else - even the US, wants the tankers to pass, even if it's to China. China has huge leverage with Iran. The issue is one of risk - the mere existence of hostilities means nobody can get insurance. All Iran had to do was say 'it's shut down' - and insurance prices go through the roof. No more oil. The business math goes nuts.
    - cassepipe 8mo ago
      > The only entity interested in attacking tankers is China I don't understand how that makes sense > China has huge leverage with Iran. Which is why it could negotiate safe passage for itself Overall I don't get your point
      - bluegatty 8mo ago
        Sorry - I meant Iran. The only entity interested in attacking the tankers is Iran. Yeah, as it was written, it makes no sense. I'm responding to someone indicating that 'China' would be involved in attacking tankers.
  - cassepipe 8mo ago
    That would be a bit crazy that a neutral third-party would get attacked by the US coalition just for being... neutral ?

chneu 8mo ago

I'm expecting China to go after Taiwan any day now. Im assuming they're waiting for the US to move more resources to the ME so they can get a jump.

bluGill 8mo ago
I doupt it. China is preparing, but their war machine is still building up and they know it. Eventually I expect it, but not for a few more years. of course things can change and I've been wrong. That is my best guess though.
bluegatty 8mo ago
Probably not, they are preparing but that does not mean they will ever do it. Xi just faced a mutiny and had to put top generals away. Key people in China military oppose the plans. Even as they near readiness with some things, others remain far behind, and untested. It's an extremely risky move and they don't take those kinds of risks. Island landing 100 km away = Chinese D-Day means absolutely enormous casualties, and no guarantees of success. If they lose that fight, CPP will be overthrown, that sounds dramatic, but those are the stakes at that level esp. with casualties. The #1 objective is to infiltrate and take it without a fight, and/or cause pain and get citiznes to take the 'easy pill' and Taiwan slowly comes into China fold without ever any incident at all. Barring that a blockade would be the thing, and then only usa could even hope to run it, it would be a sight to see, and very hard for us to do as China has long range weapons now and many things specifically designed to keep USN away from 1st island chain, means they can strangle Taiwan into submission with no invasion. But if that happens, USN closes gulf and Malaca straigths, probably goes into S. China Sea. Very bad. China needs food and fuel to import. It's very complex and China is not a monolith, many actors, it's authoritarian yet citizens are not dummies, they protest all the time we just don't hear about it. Probably the chances are most acute 2029-early 2030s. This is from former Australian PM Kevin Rudd how is Western World's #1 non-Chinese China expert. Xi is playing against bad headwinds though and the direct opportunity may not resent itself. If they 'thought like us' and were a bit more decisive and risky, yes, 'now' would be a grand time to do it, wouldn't it? But no.
- FpUser 8mo ago
  >"If they lose that fight, CPP will be overthrown," Xi will be probably burned at the stake. CPP will most likely proceed with new leader.
  - bluegatty 8mo ago
    Yes, that's probably right.

cassepipe 8mo ago

Can't China negotiate with Iran safe passage for its own oil only?

tartoran 8mo ago
Not very likely. If only China bound oil passes through the strait all others would oppose, even destroy the tankers.
- bluegatty 8mo ago
  Goodness, no. The only entity interested in attacking tankers is China. Everyone else - even the US, wants the tankers to pass, even if it's to China. China has huge leverage with Iran. The issue is one of risk - the mere existence of hostilities means nobody can get insurance. All Iran had to do was say 'it's shut down' - and insurance prices go through the roof. No more oil. The business math goes nuts.
  - cassepipe 8mo ago
    > The only entity interested in attacking tankers is China I don't understand how that makes sense > China has huge leverage with Iran. Which is why it could negotiate safe passage for itself Overall I don't get your point
    - bluegatty 8mo ago
      Sorry - I meant Iran. The only entity interested in attacking the tankers is Iran. Yeah, as it was written, it makes no sense. I'm responding to someone indicating that 'China' would be involved in attacking tankers.
- cassepipe 8mo ago
  That would be a bit crazy that a neutral third-party would get attacked by the US coalition just for being... neutral ?