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I'm always somewhat puzzled by debates around "are we in a recession?" b/c we have so many REAL TIME metrics around what people are actually doing. e.g. credit
by alexpotato 8mo ago
I'm always somewhat puzzled by debates around "are we in a recession?" b/c we have so many REAL TIME metrics around what people are actually doing.
e.g. credit card companies have excellent data on the amount that people are spending on. Is that not enough to determine if people are spending more or less than in the past?
I understand there are seasonal trend etc etc but even "how is spending on travel this year compared to last year around this time?" would probably have some large amount of statistical significance.
- willturman 8mo agoWhy would credit card companies release data showing that consumption indicates a recession? Surely they’re in the business of sustaining exuberance.
- verteu 8mo agoBecause businesses and hedge funds pay for it, eg: https://usa.visa.com/partner-with-us/visa-consulting-analytics/spending-momentum-index.html https://usa.visa.com/partner-with-us/visa-consulting-analyti...
- tencentshill 8mo agoThe people who are spending the most in the economy don’t need credit.
- enoint 8mo agoYet more often they use credit cards than the rest of the population.
- Intermernet 8mo agoThe rich use credit cards because of the added rewards, not because they need credit.
- gruez 8mo agohttps://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow
- dboreham 8mo agoReal data is delayed to give the investor class time to "reallocate assets". Also anyone publishing a story saying there's a rececession knows they will receive the Emperor Palpatine lightning treatment from the Orange Jesus.
- iJohnDoe 8mo agoAnything released regarding unemployment and the economy are lies. If anyone in the US government tries to tell the truth they are fired. It’s damn near impossible these days to know what’s actually going on. All the layoffs and difficulty to find a new job should be causing a lot of suffering out there, especially in the US. Yet, everything seems to be great!