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Uh huh. How much did you spend on your Roadster, and how much is it going to cost to replace the battery pack when it wears out after only ten years or so?

by tsotha 14y ago

mmoche 14y ago
How long do people realistically own cars? Only 60% of people keep their cars more than four years...I'd suspect 10 is closer to 5%. source: http://www.autoweek.com/article/20090714/carnews/907149994 http://www.autoweek.com/article/20090714/carnews/907149994
- tsotha 14y ago
  The average car on the road is eleven years old, so even if you only keep your car for four years when you sell it some cheap bastard (like me) is going to buy it used and drive it for awhile longer. My guess is EVs are going to have quite a bit steeper depreciation curves than standard vehicles. A ten year old Leaf on its original battery pack will be essentially worthless, and you can probably work the curve backward from there.
jblow 14y ago
The Roadster is definitely expensive, but now the Model S, just a few years later, is 1/2 to 2/3 the price, and is a superior car. Thus, the price is declining rapidly, and this is obvious to anyone who cares to look at actual facts.
incision 14y ago
>How much did you spend on your Roadster, and how much is it going to cost to replace the battery pack when it wears out after only ten years or so? Is this a fact, expensive battery replacements after 10 years and all? I really have no idea, but I took a few minutes to try and look it up. At a glance, it looks likes replacing a Prius battery today runs about half a much today as it did 10 years ago. Folks on the Tesla forums claim that you can pre-pay for a an eventual replacement to the tune of about $12K or 11% of the price of a new Roadster. That's a bit less half of of the current Tesla battery replacement cost I've seen thrown around and in line observed reduction in price of Prius batteries. Spending 11% of a car's new price on a such a major repair, 10 years down the road is not bad at all. In fact, in my experience that's right in line with a basic import and cheap for anything could be considering sporting or luxury. Unless I'm way off, this doesn't seem like a big issue at all.
- tsotha 14y ago
  Folks on the Tesla forums claim that you can pre-pay for a an eventual replacement to the tune of about $12K or 11% of the price of a new Roadster. Right. The Roadster costs so much it makes sense to replace the battery. But if you paid $30k for a car and the battery costs $12k, it's a different story. Normal people are not going to spend $100k on a car.
  - incision 14y ago
    Sure. When I consider the $12K number is from 2010 and folks are estimating a new Model S battery could run as little as $14K...A $30K Tesla sporting a battery that will cost $3K to replace 10 years down the road doesn't seem that far off.
    - tsotha 14y ago
      If those numbers are real then it works. But I don't see how the battery could possibly be $3k. Battery costs are primarily driven by materials - unless there's some breakthrough that allows the use of something cheaper than lithium, batteries for a car with a reasonable range are going to retail at a minimum of $10k.

Uh huh. How much did you spend on your Roadster, and how much is it going to cost to replace the battery pack when it wears out after only ten years or so?

by tsotha 14y ago

Uh huh. How much did you spend on your Roadster, and how much is it going to cost to replace the battery pack when it wears out after only ten years or so?

mmoche 14y ago

How long do people realistically own cars? Only 60% of people keep their cars more than four years...I'd suspect 10 is closer to 5%. source: http://www.autoweek.com/article/20090714/carnews/907149994 http://www.autoweek.com/article/20090714/carnews/907149994

tsotha 14y ago
The average car on the road is eleven years old, so even if you only keep your car for four years when you sell it some cheap bastard (like me) is going to buy it used and drive it for awhile longer. My guess is EVs are going to have quite a bit steeper depreciation curves than standard vehicles. A ten year old Leaf on its original battery pack will be essentially worthless, and you can probably work the curve backward from there.

jblow 14y ago

The Roadster is definitely expensive, but now the Model S, just a few years later, is 1/2 to 2/3 the price, and is a superior car. Thus, the price is declining rapidly, and this is obvious to anyone who cares to look at actual facts.

incision 14y ago

>How much did you spend on your Roadster, and how much is it going to cost to replace the battery pack when it wears out after only ten years or so? Is this a fact, expensive battery replacements after 10 years and all? I really have no idea, but I took a few minutes to try and look it up. At a glance, it looks likes replacing a Prius battery today runs about half a much today as it did 10 years ago. Folks on the Tesla forums claim that you can pre-pay for a an eventual replacement to the tune of about $12K or 11% of the price of a new Roadster. That's a bit less half of of the current Tesla battery replacement cost I've seen thrown around and in line observed reduction in price of Prius batteries. Spending 11% of a car's new price on a such a major repair, 10 years down the road is not bad at all. In fact, in my experience that's right in line with a basic import and cheap for anything could be considering sporting or luxury. Unless I'm way off, this doesn't seem like a big issue at all.

tsotha 14y ago
Folks on the Tesla forums claim that you can pre-pay for a an eventual replacement to the tune of about $12K or 11% of the price of a new Roadster. Right. The Roadster costs so much it makes sense to replace the battery. But if you paid $30k for a car and the battery costs $12k, it's a different story. Normal people are not going to spend $100k on a car.
- incision 14y ago
  Sure. When I consider the $12K number is from 2010 and folks are estimating a new Model S battery could run as little as $14K...A $30K Tesla sporting a battery that will cost $3K to replace 10 years down the road doesn't seem that far off.
  - tsotha 14y ago
    If those numbers are real then it works. But I don't see how the battery could possibly be $3k. Battery costs are primarily driven by materials - unless there's some breakthrough that allows the use of something cheaper than lithium, batteries for a car with a reasonable range are going to retail at a minimum of $10k.