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Unless we invent new battery technology, that prediction won't come true. There is simply not enough easily obtainable lithium in the world for the batteries. L
by jules 14y ago
Unless we invent new battery technology, that prediction won't come true. There is simply not enough easily obtainable lithium in the world for the batteries. Lithium production in 2011 was 34 kilotonnes. For 50 million cars you already need ~2500 kilotonnes. So unless we can somehow increase production 70x while keeping prices low, we're going to need something else. Not to mention that at that with the total lithium reserves, we can build just 250 million cars.
- bryanlarsen 14y agoquoting from Wikipedia: According to a 2011 study conducted at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California Berkeley, the currently estimated reserve base of lithium should not be a limiting factor for large-scale battery production for electric vehicles, as the study estimated that on the order of 1 billion 40 kWh Li-based batteries could be built with current reserves.[71] Another 2011 study by researchers from the University of Michigan and Ford Motor Company found that there are sufficient lithium resources to support global demand until 2100, including the lithium required for the potential widespread use of hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric and battery electric vehicles. The study estimated global lithium reserves at 39 million tons, and total demand for lithium during the 90-year period analyzed at 12–20 million tons, depending on the scenarios regarding economic growth and recycling rates.[72] [71]: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/06/albertus-20110617.html http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/06/albertus-20110617.ht... [72]: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/08/lithium-20110803.html http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/08/lithium-20110803.htm...
- jules 14y agoInteresting. Unfortunately the paper is behind a paywall. According to Wikipedia lithium reserves are 13 million tonnes [1], but of course their 39 million could be due to a different interpretation of "reserve". I based my calculation on a Chevy Volt, which uses 1.4kg lithium per kwh for a total of 60kg per 40kwh, perhaps other cars are more efficient in their lithium use. If we use those figures, 39 million tonnes / 1 billion cars comes down to 39kg per car; not too far off. According to this [2], there were around 60 million cars produced in 2011. Conservatively assuming that that grows to 100 million in 2025, that's 50 million electric cars per year according to Musks prediction. At 39kg per car that is around 2 million tonnes of lithium per year. Not too far off my 2.5 million tonnes. So my point still stands that we have to increase lithium production around 70x just for cars (and consider trucks, cargo ships, motorcycles, farming vehicles etc). Perhaps we will be able to do that without increasing prices significantly, perhaps not. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium [2] http://www.worldometers.info/cars/ http://www.worldometers.info/cars/