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Can’t read much beyond the beginning, so forgive me if it mentions this and I missed it, but I have no inside information and was looking into placing the exact
by mattmaroon 7mo ago
Can’t read much beyond the beginning, so forgive me if it mentions this and I missed it, but I have no inside information and was looking into placing the exact same bet. I was a little too slow to do it unfortunately for me.
I always thought we were going to strike. We very publicly moved a lot of military assets into the region. Trump had issued a red line about Iran killing protesters, and then they killed protesters, and we all remember how he and everyone else harped on Obama for not following up on his own red line in Syria when they used chemical weapons on their own people.
And most importantly, a few days before it happened, he said he wasn’t happy with the progress of talks. That was when I started figuring out how to get money into polymarket.
All of this was the exact same as the buildup to Venezuela. The only thing shocking is how low the odds were on the market.
While I agree with the thesis, they chose the weakest possible example.