Nuclear weapons traded a high probability of a major war for a low probability of an apocalyptic war. My question is, how low is that probability, exactly? Bec

Nuclear weapons traded a high probability of a major war for a low probability of an apocalyptic war. My question is, how low is that probability, exactly? Because the tradeoff looks very different if it’s one in a million per year, versus one in a hundred per year. My assessment, looking at the history and the close calls, is that it’s more like one in a hundred.