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I don't believe its over hiring I believe its offshoring. Blaming Covid after so many years doesn't make sense.

by daheza 7mo ago

loeg 7mo ago
People have been booggeyman'ing offshoring since before I entered the industry and it's never been all that significant of a factor. Time zones are a big piece but there are a lot of other factors that make offshoring less appealing than a naive analysis of Fully Loaded Cost per head.
- DangitBobby 7mo ago
  How would you it hasn't been a significant factor? We've had offshoring this whole time.
  - loeg 7mo ago
    The US tech labor market is much more of a seller's market than when I started. Domestic demand has grown faster than supply, despite any offshoring that has also happened.
- mech422 7mo ago
  If offshoring started before your time, that might be coloring your perception. I had already been working in tech for decades when the offshoring craze started. It was remarkably similar to the current 'ai craze'. Loads of jobs lost, predictions it was the end of (on-shore) programming, long job searches (and even longer ones for recent grads, etc. All in the name of 'cost reduction'. Thing is, in a couple of years when the savings didn't materialize/live up to expectations, companies started hiring on-shore again (and even paid better!). Now, offshoring is just one more tool. It still exists, it's still used - but it didn't destroy domestic programming market. Personally, I think AI will follow the same trajectory. Its gonna be rough, but then it won't be the 'magic bullet' management wants, and they'll start hiring again. AI (just like offshoring) will still be there, still be used - it will just be a tool rather then a complete replacement.
  - loeg 7mo ago
    The offshoring doomsayers made it seem like offshoring would contract the domestic market, but in fact the US software labor market has grown by >100% since that time. Median software engineer compensation is up something like 90% over inflation over the same period. Clearly it hasn't been all that big of a problem for SWEs in the US.
    - mech422 7mo ago
      Yep, it was a 'momentary' glitch in the matrix ... Things came back even stronger then before, and 'off-shore' just became another tool. Its still around, but it hasn't destroyed the domestic programming industry. However, it was painful for a lot programmers at the time and _seemed_ like the end of the world to them... Which is why I say, it reminds me very strongly of the current AI trend. AI won't 'go away' - but I don't think it will 'be the end' of programmers (at least not in the next 5-10 years). It will just become another tool
ehnto 7mo ago
The hiring boom was post 2019, in the article's chart it is easy to see. It was a multi year hiring boom, that only slowed up in 2023/2024.
cmiles8 7mo ago
The roles that were, or could be, offshored are being replaced by AI. Those jobs aren’t coming back and the ones that went to India et al are going away. It was low-value stuff that got offshored. Folks in the west upskilled and tech jobs actually grew, a lot, as did comp. The story that all the US tech jobs disappeared and got replaced by offshore simply isn’t what happened.
ozim 7mo ago
Covid was just starting point, no one is blaming Covid. There are interest rates going crazy, AI hype, wars going on, visa rules changes, tariffs and trade wars. Offshoring seems like a silly explanation in current global situation, there probably is some still but I don't believe anyone is risking having employees in Elbonia.

I don't believe its over hiring I believe its offshoring. Blaming Covid after so many years doesn't make sense.

by daheza 7mo ago

I don't believe its over hiring I believe its offshoring. Blaming Covid after so many years doesn't make sense.

loeg 7mo ago

People have been booggeyman'ing offshoring since before I entered the industry and it's never been all that significant of a factor. Time zones are a big piece but there are a lot of other factors that make offshoring less appealing than a naive analysis of Fully Loaded Cost per head.

DangitBobby 7mo ago
How would you it hasn't been a significant factor? We've had offshoring this whole time.
- loeg 7mo ago
  The US tech labor market is much more of a seller's market than when I started. Domestic demand has grown faster than supply, despite any offshoring that has also happened.
mech422 7mo ago
If offshoring started before your time, that might be coloring your perception. I had already been working in tech for decades when the offshoring craze started. It was remarkably similar to the current 'ai craze'. Loads of jobs lost, predictions it was the end of (on-shore) programming, long job searches (and even longer ones for recent grads, etc. All in the name of 'cost reduction'. Thing is, in a couple of years when the savings didn't materialize/live up to expectations, companies started hiring on-shore again (and even paid better!). Now, offshoring is just one more tool. It still exists, it's still used - but it didn't destroy domestic programming market. Personally, I think AI will follow the same trajectory. Its gonna be rough, but then it won't be the 'magic bullet' management wants, and they'll start hiring again. AI (just like offshoring) will still be there, still be used - it will just be a tool rather then a complete replacement.
- loeg 7mo ago
  The offshoring doomsayers made it seem like offshoring would contract the domestic market, but in fact the US software labor market has grown by >100% since that time. Median software engineer compensation is up something like 90% over inflation over the same period. Clearly it hasn't been all that big of a problem for SWEs in the US.
  - mech422 7mo ago
    Yep, it was a 'momentary' glitch in the matrix ... Things came back even stronger then before, and 'off-shore' just became another tool. Its still around, but it hasn't destroyed the domestic programming industry. However, it was painful for a lot programmers at the time and _seemed_ like the end of the world to them... Which is why I say, it reminds me very strongly of the current AI trend. AI won't 'go away' - but I don't think it will 'be the end' of programmers (at least not in the next 5-10 years). It will just become another tool

ehnto 7mo ago

The hiring boom was post 2019, in the article's chart it is easy to see. It was a multi year hiring boom, that only slowed up in 2023/2024.

cmiles8 7mo ago

The roles that were, or could be, offshored are being replaced by AI. Those jobs aren’t coming back and the ones that went to India et al are going away. It was low-value stuff that got offshored. Folks in the west upskilled and tech jobs actually grew, a lot, as did comp. The story that all the US tech jobs disappeared and got replaced by offshore simply isn’t what happened.

ozim 7mo ago

Covid was just starting point, no one is blaming Covid. There are interest rates going crazy, AI hype, wars going on, visa rules changes, tariffs and trade wars. Offshoring seems like a silly explanation in current global situation, there probably is some still but I don't believe anyone is risking having employees in Elbonia.