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Near zero interest rates + COVID remote work + PPP loans = Booming economy What is happening now is the unwinding of the above. Now its: Higher rates + AI + t

Near zero interest rates + COVID remote work + PPP loans = Booming economy What is happening now is the unwinding of the above. Now its: Higher rates + AI + too many SWEs (bootcamps and over-hiring) = Busting economy I think what we are in right now is more the norm and the post covid boom was an exception.

kccqzy 7mo ago
And also the section 174 change too, which suddenly increased the tax bill for any companies doing software development.
- candiddevmike 7mo ago
  That has been undone now, though.
  - t-writescode 7mo ago
    Has it? I haven’t seen anything about that.
    - stock_toaster 7mo ago
      I thought it was mostly rolled back for domestic R&D as part of the terribly named OBBBA. [1]: found a ref https://www.bnncpa.com/resources/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-section-174-research-costs-overhauled/ https://www.bnncpa.com/resources/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-...
  - y-curious 7mo ago
    Section 174 as it stands means R&D costs companies less, not more. It would be bullish for the SWE profession. It’s still around
menaerus 7mo ago
Over-hiring is a myth IMO. Company wanting to hire essentially has two options: (1) hire from the pool of fresh candidates coming out of the Universities, (2) hire people who are already employed. This means that to inflate the numbers of software engineers on the market you also have only two options: (1) have the Universities start to somehow exponentially produce the number of software engineers which the market could not amortize, (2) let go a substantial number of software engineers who now (in between 2020-2025) all of the sudden cannot find a new job anymore (1) is a non-sense and for (2) to take place market needs to stagnate, which is what is happening. Reasons are manyfold.
bigthymer 7mo ago
> Near zero interest rates + COVID remote work + PPP loans = Booming economy One more factor to add to the equation...when everyone went remote during COVID, all brick-and-mortar businesses had to quickly move to conducting their businesses online driving demand for SWEs.

kccqzy 7mo ago

And also the section 174 change too, which suddenly increased the tax bill for any companies doing software development.

candiddevmike 7mo ago
That has been undone now, though.
- t-writescode 7mo ago
  Has it? I haven’t seen anything about that.
  - stock_toaster 7mo ago
    I thought it was mostly rolled back for domestic R&D as part of the terribly named OBBBA. [1]: found a ref https://www.bnncpa.com/resources/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-section-174-research-costs-overhauled/ https://www.bnncpa.com/resources/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-...
- y-curious 7mo ago
  Section 174 as it stands means R&D costs companies less, not more. It would be bullish for the SWE profession. It’s still around

menaerus 7mo ago

Over-hiring is a myth IMO. Company wanting to hire essentially has two options: (1) hire from the pool of fresh candidates coming out of the Universities, (2) hire people who are already employed. This means that to inflate the numbers of software engineers on the market you also have only two options: (1) have the Universities start to somehow exponentially produce the number of software engineers which the market could not amortize, (2) let go a substantial number of software engineers who now (in between 2020-2025) all of the sudden cannot find a new job anymore (1) is a non-sense and for (2) to take place market needs to stagnate, which is what is happening. Reasons are manyfold.

bigthymer 7mo ago

> Near zero interest rates + COVID remote work + PPP loans = Booming economy One more factor to add to the equation...when everyone went remote during COVID, all brick-and-mortar businesses had to quickly move to conducting their businesses online driving demand for SWEs.