5 ms·

I just can't get over how short and intense the period between 2021 and 2023 was. There was SO much hype, such stupendous hiring, in such a compressed timeframe

by mlsu 7mo ago

I just can't get over how short and intense the period between 2021 and 2023 was. There was SO much hype, such stupendous hiring, in such a compressed timeframe. Within the span of like 9 weeks it went from full steam ahead to completely seized. At the same time, the economy at large didn't seem to change very much. Why did this happen?

game_the0ry 7mo ago
Near zero interest rates + COVID remote work + PPP loans = Booming economy What is happening now is the unwinding of the above. Now its: Higher rates + AI + too many SWEs (bootcamps and over-hiring) = Busting economy I think what we are in right now is more the norm and the post covid boom was an exception.
- kccqzy 7mo ago
  And also the section 174 change too, which suddenly increased the tax bill for any companies doing software development.
  - candiddevmike 7mo ago
    That has been undone now, though.
    - t-writescode 7mo ago
      Has it? I haven’t seen anything about that.
      - stock_toaster 7mo ago
        I thought it was mostly rolled back for domestic R&D as part of the terribly named OBBBA. [1]: found a ref https://www.bnncpa.com/resources/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-section-174-research-costs-overhauled/ https://www.bnncpa.com/resources/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-...
    - y-curious 7mo ago
      Section 174 as it stands means R&D costs companies less, not more. It would be bullish for the SWE profession. It’s still around
- menaerus 7mo ago
  Over-hiring is a myth IMO. Company wanting to hire essentially has two options: (1) hire from the pool of fresh candidates coming out of the Universities, (2) hire people who are already employed. This means that to inflate the numbers of software engineers on the market you also have only two options: (1) have the Universities start to somehow exponentially produce the number of software engineers which the market could not amortize, (2) let go a substantial number of software engineers who now (in between 2020-2025) all of the sudden cannot find a new job anymore (1) is a non-sense and for (2) to take place market needs to stagnate, which is what is happening. Reasons are manyfold.
- bigthymer 7mo ago
  > Near zero interest rates + COVID remote work + PPP loans = Booming economy One more factor to add to the equation...when everyone went remote during COVID, all brick-and-mortar businesses had to quickly move to conducting their businesses online driving demand for SWEs.
ehnto 7mo ago
What was actually booming in though, like why did we suddenly need so many more tech workers? It didn't make much sense to me at the time so I am not particularly surprised by a correction. The big AI companies don't really have high head counts, and the boom started somewhere before AI got taken seriously. Was it just that there was access to cheap money thanks to covid era cash rates during that time?
- kortilla 7mo ago
  The world was changing to remote employment. At the time the thinking is that it was here to stay so lots of tech companies invested in making tools for that world.

by mlsu 7mo ago

game_the0ry 7mo ago

Near zero interest rates + COVID remote work + PPP loans = Booming economy What is happening now is the unwinding of the above. Now its: Higher rates + AI + too many SWEs (bootcamps and over-hiring) = Busting economy I think what we are in right now is more the norm and the post covid boom was an exception.

kccqzy 7mo ago
And also the section 174 change too, which suddenly increased the tax bill for any companies doing software development.
- candiddevmike 7mo ago
  That has been undone now, though.
  - t-writescode 7mo ago
    Has it? I haven’t seen anything about that.
    - stock_toaster 7mo ago
      I thought it was mostly rolled back for domestic R&D as part of the terribly named OBBBA. [1]: found a ref https://www.bnncpa.com/resources/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-section-174-research-costs-overhauled/ https://www.bnncpa.com/resources/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-...
  - y-curious 7mo ago
    Section 174 as it stands means R&D costs companies less, not more. It would be bullish for the SWE profession. It’s still around
menaerus 7mo ago
Over-hiring is a myth IMO. Company wanting to hire essentially has two options: (1) hire from the pool of fresh candidates coming out of the Universities, (2) hire people who are already employed. This means that to inflate the numbers of software engineers on the market you also have only two options: (1) have the Universities start to somehow exponentially produce the number of software engineers which the market could not amortize, (2) let go a substantial number of software engineers who now (in between 2020-2025) all of the sudden cannot find a new job anymore (1) is a non-sense and for (2) to take place market needs to stagnate, which is what is happening. Reasons are manyfold.
bigthymer 7mo ago
> Near zero interest rates + COVID remote work + PPP loans = Booming economy One more factor to add to the equation...when everyone went remote during COVID, all brick-and-mortar businesses had to quickly move to conducting their businesses online driving demand for SWEs.

ehnto 7mo ago

What was actually booming in though, like why did we suddenly need so many more tech workers? It didn't make much sense to me at the time so I am not particularly surprised by a correction. The big AI companies don't really have high head counts, and the boom started somewhere before AI got taken seriously. Was it just that there was access to cheap money thanks to covid era cash rates during that time?

kortilla 7mo ago
The world was changing to remote employment. At the time the thinking is that it was here to stay so lots of tech companies invested in making tools for that world.