5 ms·

I get the feeling AI will be blamed for this, but I would not rule out the hypothesis that this was done intentionally in order to incite Iran to do something t

I get the feeling AI will be blamed for this, but I would not rule out the hypothesis that this was done intentionally in order to incite Iran to do something that bolsters support for the US regime’s actions. They desperately need domestic political support for this war and right now even the hardcore MAGA people are against it.

Kapura 7mo ago
It's a really warped mind that could think the best way to build domestic war support would be to blow up a girls' school, but frankly i haven't seen anything from the u.s. government that makes it sound implausible.
surgical_fire 7mo ago
Sounds too convoluted, and implies that those in power in the countries attacking Iran have a grand plan that goes beyond killing people in Iran. The explanation is simpler. They want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminately Hitting a school was not a mistake, it was the point.
- killjoywashere 7mo ago
  Yeah, Hanlon's Razor applies.
- _alternator_ 7mo ago
  I think a tragic mistake like this was foreseeable (in a vague sense), but I highly doubt that anyone intentionally bombed an elementary school full of children. The NYT had some good reporting on this, and you can see how the mistake was made. The elementary school used to be part of the IRGC base until 2016. Then it was fenced off and made an elementary school. The “shooter” (in this case, the USA) had a duty to check that the target was currently a valid military target. This verification, if it was done at all, was clearly the problem. I’m sure you have someone directly responsible for this mistake who is going to have a hard time living with themselves. But like I said, starting a war leads to inevitable tragedy, and I doubt the people who are indirectly responsible will ever recognize their culpability in this.
  - ryandrake 7mo ago
    It really doesn't matter whether it was a mistake or how the mistake was made. If it were your kid's elementary school that got blown up, would you say "Oh, well, it wasn't intentional. The bad guys just had outdated intelligence. These things happen."
    - kgwgk 7mo ago
      > It really doesn't matter whether it was a mistake It does matter if people go around saying that “they want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminately.”
      - surgical_fire 7mo ago
        > “they want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminately.” It's still the most probable explanation
        SauntSolaire 7mo ago
        Disagree, negligence seems more likely
        surgical_fire 7mo ago
        https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/hegseth-insists-the-iran-conflict-is-not-iraq-and-is-not-endless https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/hegseth-insists-the-iran-... "No stupid rules of engagement, no nation building quagmire, no democracy building exercise, no politically correct wars. We fight to win, and we don't waste time or lives," Hegseth said. Words of your Secretary of War, not mine. This is not a woke war. This is a war where you bomb schools and kill children.
        ryandrake 7mo ago
        The ridiculous renaming to "Department of War" supports this attitude, as well. They're declaring to everyone our intent to be belligerents. That the US military is meant to be aggressors and instigators, rather than defenders. All signs point to an administration bent on aggression and destruction. I mean, to be fair, the US always has been the instigators, but it's now official, something this administration is proud of.
- Sabinus 7mo ago
  This is real life not cartoon villany. The US administration is not a kind one, but their goals are not just 'death for people in Iran'.
  - donkeybeer 7mo ago
    Why else would they start an unprovoked war while pretending to negotiate peace with Iran? They want death of Iranians.
    - SauntSolaire 7mo ago
      For the same reason they deposed Maduro, control, obviously. Your mistake is thinking they care about Iranians enough to want them dead. The reality is that they want Iran to bend the knee, at which point they'll go back to not thinking about them at all.
fbelzile 7mo ago
Reporting from the CBC mentioned that the school was located within an area surrounded by other military buildings. The building housing the school was used for military purposes in the past. I think it's more likely that the US was going off of outdated intelligence.
- jihadjihad 7mo ago
  Yeah, Occam's Razor and all that. The current admin has proven itself to be poor players of games like checkers, let alone 5D chess.
  - mylifeandtimes 7mo ago
    Sounds more like Bloody Stupid Jonssons Razor than Occams razor. The dumbest possible explanation is probably right.
- jiggawatts 7mo ago
  Many similar incidents occurred in Ukraine, where Russia targeted apartment blocks that were built on the former site of some sort of military building that was demolished decades ago. The ultimate hubris is launching a multi million dollar missile to kill civilians because you couldn’t be bothered to check Google street view (or whatever).
  - lawn 7mo ago
    Russia actively targets hospitals, fire departments and schools for years and you attribute it to "outdated info". Shame on you.
    - jiggawatts 7mo ago
      It was quite obviously outdated info. What people don’t seem to understand is the word “targeted”. They see some obviously civilian target in ruins with screaming parents outside and they have an instant visceral emotional reaction: “What kind of monster would do something like this on purpose!?” Practically nobody targets civilian building with expensive precision munitions! They’re expensive! There’s limited supply! Targets are chosen to maximise the military effect. The problem is that the victims and journalists have “boots on the ground”. They’re right there and can clearly see the civilian nature of the target with their own eyes. The person doing the targeting from som bunker thousands of miles away can see only blurry rectangles on an outdated map, has sparse intelligence reports, and targets coordinates. They’re not walking up to the missile like it’s some sort of intelligent war animal and whispering “kill civilians!” in its ear. Similarly, they’re not on the ground standing outside the civilian target waving the missile in with light sticks like some airport tarmac staff. I repeat: they’re thousands of miles away and have to target hundreds of buildings that all look the same-ish from space and aren’t magically labelled by God as “no longer valid under the Geneva conventions” or whatever. I’m not saying that this makes war good or in any way ethical, but you can see how a mistake is made that doesn’t require cartoonish evil people to explain.
rustyhancock 7mo ago
I can't say I'm as conspiratorial as you. I don't really know how these systems work, perhaps I shouldn't speak without research. But it seems like a pretty basic error. The base has looks like 5 buildings in an L shape. 4 buildings where hit in an L shape. I can imagine the sites were picked from a satellite image and the wrong building was marked. Or in flight from the camera the wrong buildings were marked. It is our arrogance that we can blow up hundreds of buildings that makes us try and see meaning behind these mistakes. Instead we should just be far more cautious about blowing buildings up because these mistakes are inevitable. The perfect just war simply does not exist.
- JKCalhoun 7mo ago
  > The perfect just war simply does not exist. Agree. In the moment before war is initiated, before a strike is launched against a country, the leaders considering war must immediately assume they are likely to destroy a school full of children some point.
dzdt 7mo ago
I do think there is a strong possibility the people in charge in the US government believe an Iran state sponsored terrorism attack would be a political benefit to them. Such things boost support for the sitting President, and could also give political cover for additional authoritarian acts to help them retain power. Would they do the school attack on purpose? Maybe? But for sure they keep the war going until they generate the response they are looking for...
urikaduri 7mo ago
You really think the IRGC cared about schoolchildren? Give me a break, they used to have child soldiers.

Kapura 7mo ago

It's a really warped mind that could think the best way to build domestic war support would be to blow up a girls' school, but frankly i haven't seen anything from the u.s. government that makes it sound implausible.

surgical_fire 7mo ago

Sounds too convoluted, and implies that those in power in the countries attacking Iran have a grand plan that goes beyond killing people in Iran. The explanation is simpler. They want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminately Hitting a school was not a mistake, it was the point.

killjoywashere 7mo ago
Yeah, Hanlon's Razor applies.
_alternator_ 7mo ago
I think a tragic mistake like this was foreseeable (in a vague sense), but I highly doubt that anyone intentionally bombed an elementary school full of children. The NYT had some good reporting on this, and you can see how the mistake was made. The elementary school used to be part of the IRGC base until 2016. Then it was fenced off and made an elementary school. The “shooter” (in this case, the USA) had a duty to check that the target was currently a valid military target. This verification, if it was done at all, was clearly the problem. I’m sure you have someone directly responsible for this mistake who is going to have a hard time living with themselves. But like I said, starting a war leads to inevitable tragedy, and I doubt the people who are indirectly responsible will ever recognize their culpability in this.
- ryandrake 7mo ago
  It really doesn't matter whether it was a mistake or how the mistake was made. If it were your kid's elementary school that got blown up, would you say "Oh, well, it wasn't intentional. The bad guys just had outdated intelligence. These things happen."
  - kgwgk 7mo ago
    > It really doesn't matter whether it was a mistake It does matter if people go around saying that “they want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminately.”
    - surgical_fire 7mo ago
      > “they want death, so they are bombing shit indiscriminately.” It's still the most probable explanation
      - SauntSolaire 7mo ago
        Disagree, negligence seems more likely
        surgical_fire 7mo ago
        https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/hegseth-insists-the-iran-conflict-is-not-iraq-and-is-not-endless https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/hegseth-insists-the-iran-... "No stupid rules of engagement, no nation building quagmire, no democracy building exercise, no politically correct wars. We fight to win, and we don't waste time or lives," Hegseth said. Words of your Secretary of War, not mine. This is not a woke war. This is a war where you bomb schools and kill children.
        ryandrake 7mo ago
        The ridiculous renaming to "Department of War" supports this attitude, as well. They're declaring to everyone our intent to be belligerents. That the US military is meant to be aggressors and instigators, rather than defenders. All signs point to an administration bent on aggression and destruction. I mean, to be fair, the US always has been the instigators, but it's now official, something this administration is proud of.
Sabinus 7mo ago
This is real life not cartoon villany. The US administration is not a kind one, but their goals are not just 'death for people in Iran'.
- donkeybeer 7mo ago
  Why else would they start an unprovoked war while pretending to negotiate peace with Iran? They want death of Iranians.
  - SauntSolaire 7mo ago
    For the same reason they deposed Maduro, control, obviously. Your mistake is thinking they care about Iranians enough to want them dead. The reality is that they want Iran to bend the knee, at which point they'll go back to not thinking about them at all.

fbelzile 7mo ago

Reporting from the CBC mentioned that the school was located within an area surrounded by other military buildings. The building housing the school was used for military purposes in the past. I think it's more likely that the US was going off of outdated intelligence.

jihadjihad 7mo ago
Yeah, Occam's Razor and all that. The current admin has proven itself to be poor players of games like checkers, let alone 5D chess.
- mylifeandtimes 7mo ago
  Sounds more like Bloody Stupid Jonssons Razor than Occams razor. The dumbest possible explanation is probably right.
jiggawatts 7mo ago
Many similar incidents occurred in Ukraine, where Russia targeted apartment blocks that were built on the former site of some sort of military building that was demolished decades ago. The ultimate hubris is launching a multi million dollar missile to kill civilians because you couldn’t be bothered to check Google street view (or whatever).
- lawn 7mo ago
  Russia actively targets hospitals, fire departments and schools for years and you attribute it to "outdated info". Shame on you.
  - jiggawatts 7mo ago
    It was quite obviously outdated info. What people don’t seem to understand is the word “targeted”. They see some obviously civilian target in ruins with screaming parents outside and they have an instant visceral emotional reaction: “What kind of monster would do something like this on purpose!?” Practically nobody targets civilian building with expensive precision munitions! They’re expensive! There’s limited supply! Targets are chosen to maximise the military effect. The problem is that the victims and journalists have “boots on the ground”. They’re right there and can clearly see the civilian nature of the target with their own eyes. The person doing the targeting from som bunker thousands of miles away can see only blurry rectangles on an outdated map, has sparse intelligence reports, and targets coordinates. They’re not walking up to the missile like it’s some sort of intelligent war animal and whispering “kill civilians!” in its ear. Similarly, they’re not on the ground standing outside the civilian target waving the missile in with light sticks like some airport tarmac staff. I repeat: they’re thousands of miles away and have to target hundreds of buildings that all look the same-ish from space and aren’t magically labelled by God as “no longer valid under the Geneva conventions” or whatever. I’m not saying that this makes war good or in any way ethical, but you can see how a mistake is made that doesn’t require cartoonish evil people to explain.

rustyhancock 7mo ago

I can't say I'm as conspiratorial as you. I don't really know how these systems work, perhaps I shouldn't speak without research. But it seems like a pretty basic error. The base has looks like 5 buildings in an L shape. 4 buildings where hit in an L shape. I can imagine the sites were picked from a satellite image and the wrong building was marked. Or in flight from the camera the wrong buildings were marked. It is our arrogance that we can blow up hundreds of buildings that makes us try and see meaning behind these mistakes. Instead we should just be far more cautious about blowing buildings up because these mistakes are inevitable. The perfect just war simply does not exist.

JKCalhoun 7mo ago
> The perfect just war simply does not exist. Agree. In the moment before war is initiated, before a strike is launched against a country, the leaders considering war must immediately assume they are likely to destroy a school full of children some point.

dzdt 7mo ago

I do think there is a strong possibility the people in charge in the US government believe an Iran state sponsored terrorism attack would be a political benefit to them. Such things boost support for the sitting President, and could also give political cover for additional authoritarian acts to help them retain power. Would they do the school attack on purpose? Maybe? But for sure they keep the war going until they generate the response they are looking for...

urikaduri 7mo ago

You really think the IRGC cared about schoolchildren? Give me a break, they used to have child soldiers.