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> I’m not saying tourism is not a factor or denying anecdotes about people not visiting the US, but I don’t think it’s the explanation for the February 2026 job

> I’m not saying tourism is not a factor or denying anecdotes about people not visiting the US, but I don’t think it’s the explanation for the February 2026 job losses. This is accurate. This thread is people emoting. I get it, might as well let it out. Tourism being major part of the US GDP feels like countries whose GDP depends on tourism, projecting. I get that too, if that is the paradigm you live in every day, that is the lens you view things through. Tourism is probably affecting local economies at the margins, and there is a real loss there for those communities. The US GDP as a whole? Not even a rounding error.

kspacewalk2 8mo ago
Most US tourism is domestic, the effect of a 12% drop in international tourism arrivals is a rounding error even for the US tourism industry as a whole, much less the US economy overall (tourism is 3% of total, compared to ~10% in other major tourist destinations like France). Emoting and wishful thinking is exactly right, and I say that as a Canadian who is participating in this boycott. I'm not doing it to hurt the US economy, because I know it won't matter one bit even if we all stay away. It'll hurt some border destinations, but will hardly register in most places. Facts are facts.
- _DeadFred_ 8mo ago
  Tourism is a rounding error. Euros buying US arms are a rounding error. The benefits of a relationship with XYZ country is a rounding error. Any change we want to make to improve healthcare affordability is a rounding error. Everything around discussing improving housing affordability is a rounding error. The US economy is driven in part by coal which employs 40,000 people. Rounding errors have impacts and are part of policy discussion all the time. It only gets shut down with 'rounding error' when it's referring to average people issues without clout. Calling things rounding errors is the US equivalent speech as russian style apathy propaganda.
  - kspacewalk2 8mo ago
    It's not just tourism. Economically, the US does not depend on the rest of the world nearly as much as any other developed country. Trade (exports and imports) as percentage of GDP is the lowest of all major economies, by far. This is not up for discussion it's a fact you must ground everything else in. Having established that, you know the firm upper bound on economic (not cultural or political or podcast-topic-generating) impact that international tourism boycott will have on the US. Same for putting tariffs on US goods. If you ignore this, you'll be surprised by how little this matters in the end, economically. Conversely, if you keep yourself firmly grounded in reality you can still in fact be against these policies on different grounds - on the fact that over time their cumulative economic and non-economic effect will hurt, on the fact that a lot of the reasons for these policies are fanciful nationalist bullshit (no, manufacturing jobs aren't and won't be coming back). But don't expect us staying away from your country, or putting a tariff on your shitty cars or cucumbers or whatever, to make a difference. Why is that controversial?
    - _DeadFred_ 8mo ago
      The foreign tourism segment is 20% of the size of the US ag industry. Saying this is a rounding error is ridiculous. 10% of US tourism employment would be 1.5 million people employed as a result of foreign tourism (total tourism employment is 15 million). To say this a tiny unimportant segment that isn't worth talking about is ridiculous. Again especially considering the consideration the Republicans give tiny industries like coal which employs 40,000. It's worth talking about a segment that employs 1.5 million in a discussion about 92k job loses.
      - irishcoffee 8mo ago
        It’s not a big deal that you think this, but it isn’t nearly as important or poignant for the US economy as you’re wanting it to be.
        _DeadFred_ 8mo ago
        My bad talking about employment on a thread about job cuts and giving background that a rounding error that doesn't matter is still 1.5 million US jobs. The US isn't 'too big to fail'. Death by a thousand cuts is still death. Ignoring each cut because they aren't important enough (only 1.5 million out of the 15 million travel workers) or poignant is dumb.
justin66 8mo ago
GDP being affected negatively by reductions in tourism, with the loss being offset by increased business for Raytheon as well as the human centipede-like economics of big tech companies buying stuff from other big tech companies, sounds about right.
exceptione 8mo ago
I would indeed be cautious about attributing economic downturn to holiday spending, but I don't think Las Vegas can breathe freely now. It could be a canary in the coal mine. Some might say, the death of a canary is a rounding error. Others might say: what else is at risk?
- irishcoffee 8mo ago
  St Patrick’s day folds into March madness folds into nba/nhl playoffs folds into Memorial Day folds into Independence Day, Vegas is about to get slammed.
FireBeyond 8mo ago
Perhaps so. But also, the other thing is that this administration has been stalling on releasing monthly numbers on employment for several months now, either releasing them very late or even not at all. If you believe the administration, it's been because BLS "has the wrong numbers" or that they need "interpretation" or "adjustment"... ... or it's because they've been garbage for a while now and trending in this direction because, shocking, I realize, maybe Trump isn't the economic mastermind he likes to cosplay as inside his head.

kspacewalk2 8mo ago

Most US tourism is domestic, the effect of a 12% drop in international tourism arrivals is a rounding error even for the US tourism industry as a whole, much less the US economy overall (tourism is 3% of total, compared to ~10% in other major tourist destinations like France). Emoting and wishful thinking is exactly right, and I say that as a Canadian who is participating in this boycott. I'm not doing it to hurt the US economy, because I know it won't matter one bit even if we all stay away. It'll hurt some border destinations, but will hardly register in most places. Facts are facts.

_DeadFred_ 8mo ago
Tourism is a rounding error. Euros buying US arms are a rounding error. The benefits of a relationship with XYZ country is a rounding error. Any change we want to make to improve healthcare affordability is a rounding error. Everything around discussing improving housing affordability is a rounding error. The US economy is driven in part by coal which employs 40,000 people. Rounding errors have impacts and are part of policy discussion all the time. It only gets shut down with 'rounding error' when it's referring to average people issues without clout. Calling things rounding errors is the US equivalent speech as russian style apathy propaganda.
- kspacewalk2 8mo ago
  It's not just tourism. Economically, the US does not depend on the rest of the world nearly as much as any other developed country. Trade (exports and imports) as percentage of GDP is the lowest of all major economies, by far. This is not up for discussion it's a fact you must ground everything else in. Having established that, you know the firm upper bound on economic (not cultural or political or podcast-topic-generating) impact that international tourism boycott will have on the US. Same for putting tariffs on US goods. If you ignore this, you'll be surprised by how little this matters in the end, economically. Conversely, if you keep yourself firmly grounded in reality you can still in fact be against these policies on different grounds - on the fact that over time their cumulative economic and non-economic effect will hurt, on the fact that a lot of the reasons for these policies are fanciful nationalist bullshit (no, manufacturing jobs aren't and won't be coming back). But don't expect us staying away from your country, or putting a tariff on your shitty cars or cucumbers or whatever, to make a difference. Why is that controversial?
  - _DeadFred_ 8mo ago
    The foreign tourism segment is 20% of the size of the US ag industry. Saying this is a rounding error is ridiculous. 10% of US tourism employment would be 1.5 million people employed as a result of foreign tourism (total tourism employment is 15 million). To say this a tiny unimportant segment that isn't worth talking about is ridiculous. Again especially considering the consideration the Republicans give tiny industries like coal which employs 40,000. It's worth talking about a segment that employs 1.5 million in a discussion about 92k job loses.
    - irishcoffee 8mo ago
      It’s not a big deal that you think this, but it isn’t nearly as important or poignant for the US economy as you’re wanting it to be.
      - _DeadFred_ 8mo ago
        My bad talking about employment on a thread about job cuts and giving background that a rounding error that doesn't matter is still 1.5 million US jobs. The US isn't 'too big to fail'. Death by a thousand cuts is still death. Ignoring each cut because they aren't important enough (only 1.5 million out of the 15 million travel workers) or poignant is dumb.

justin66 8mo ago

GDP being affected negatively by reductions in tourism, with the loss being offset by increased business for Raytheon as well as the human centipede-like economics of big tech companies buying stuff from other big tech companies, sounds about right.

exceptione 8mo ago

I would indeed be cautious about attributing economic downturn to holiday spending, but I don't think Las Vegas can breathe freely now. It could be a canary in the coal mine. Some might say, the death of a canary is a rounding error. Others might say: what else is at risk?

irishcoffee 8mo ago
St Patrick’s day folds into March madness folds into nba/nhl playoffs folds into Memorial Day folds into Independence Day, Vegas is about to get slammed.

FireBeyond 8mo ago

Perhaps so. But also, the other thing is that this administration has been stalling on releasing monthly numbers on employment for several months now, either releasing them very late or even not at all. If you believe the administration, it's been because BLS "has the wrong numbers" or that they need "interpretation" or "adjustment"... ... or it's because they've been garbage for a while now and trending in this direction because, shocking, I realize, maybe Trump isn't the economic mastermind he likes to cosplay as inside his head.