4 ms·

I've observed that when big waves of (labor) change washes over the working classes, it is met with "tough luck!" and some advice to seek a new profession, ofte

I've observed that when big waves of (labor) change washes over the working classes, it is met with "tough luck!" and some advice to seek a new profession, often starting again at the very bottom. But when this happens to the educated professional class, all hell breaks loose. The system has to change, because it is unthinkable for some professional with a master's degree to become a warehouse sorter. If AI really makes professional workers obsolete in the future, I fully expect the next revolution to be fronted by that class.

jackdoe 7mo ago
> I fully expect the next revolution to be fronted by that class. the keyboard warriors?
- ftmootnomoat 7mo ago
  Unironically yes. They were promised a seat in the ruling class. All they got was crippling debt. That’s how you incubate dissidents.
  - aleph_minus_one 7mo ago
    > They were promised a seat in the ruling class. Where was this promise given? I am not aware of such a promise. :-( Addendum: I am really surprises that you claim such a promise existed, since a seat in the ruling class requires a very different training and different qualifications (even completely ignoring "soft entry barriers" like habits).
- armchairhacker 7mo ago
  In a world with stupid AGI and unmanned drones, the keyboard may be mightier than the sword (or gun etc.)
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
jmyeet 7mo ago
There's a double-whammy here of the Myth of Meritocracy [1] under capitalism and Prosperity Gospel [2] under Protestantism. After the Civil War we compensated slave owners. After the GFC we bailed out the banks. The government giving money to poor people is somehow a moral hazard yet the wealthy not only expect government handouts, they demand them. Many in tech don't seem to realize that after 2 centuries of automation coming for only blue-collar jobs, AI will finally come for theirs. Jobs losses, depressed wages, unpaid extra work and constant layoff churn. The heady heights of the 2010s will seem like a fairy tale. Except this time, unlike a century ago, there is no labor movement. It's been decimated. There is no effective pushback against further wealth concentration to like 100,000 people. The Jeff Bezoes of the world will demand even more government money so they can have $205 billion instead of $200 billion and things will get really bad until eventually we have a Russian or french type revolution. Too many people think it's a big club when it isn't. As George Carlin said, you're not in it [3]. People actively advocate for their own worsening material conditions because they're deluded into thinking they'll be Jeff Bezos one day. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myth_of_meritocracy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myth_of_meritocracy [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperity_theology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperity_theology [3]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nyvxt1svxso https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nyvxt1svxso
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- GerryAdamsSF 7mo ago
  Revolution is no longer possible in the age of AI drones and Tiktok propaganda. The collapse of global society is much more likely than revolution.
- readthenotes1 7mo ago
  "compensated slave owners" Only in the district of Columbia. Such a distortion influenced me not to read the rest of your message
armchairhacker 7mo ago
> I've observed that when big waves of (labor) change washes over the working classes, it is met with "tough luck!" and some advice to seek a new profession, often starting again at the very bottom. Where have you observed this? I really believe that we should increase automation in blue-collar work, e.g. self-checkouts. But I don’t believe those displaced should “start at the bottom”. I believe they should get better (from their perspective) jobs, subsidized payments for whatever “job” they desire, or something in between (subsidized payments for jobs like community service and art, which have some value but don’t pay as much as they should because of desirability). I also believe we should do this for white-collar work, and executive-level. The only exception is jobs that benefit from human-ness, like service and figureheads, and these should be automated to be as easy (comfortable and effective) as possible while keeping the human.
- jgalt212 7mo ago
  > Where have you observed this? NAFTA
  - BobaFloutist 7mo ago
    I keep hearing this, what policy do you think we should have pursued instead of NAFTA? I assume you wouldn't want completely open free markets, so some form of protectionism? Tariffs? Import quotas? Should we have started a trade war with Mexico and Canada? I could see a fair argument that NAFTA should have insisted on labor protections and parity in minimum wages, but it's weird because NAFTA is already somewhat protectionist, albeit including Canada and Mexico under the umbrella. So even if I steelman that your beef is that it didn't go far enough, that doesn't really explain the vitriol.
keybored 7mo ago
Even people like me are getting masters degrees (working on it). I don’t understand how to square this with the inflation that these degrees have got.
algo314 7mo ago
What you're saying is also similar to what Marx says about ideology that ruling sensibilities align with the interest of the bourgeoisie rather than proletariat. Same is true for geo-politics a man killed in a developed nation is somewhat exceptional to man killed in the "other" countries.
betaby 7mo ago
> But when this happens to the educated professional class, all hell breaks loose. If the programmers fall into the "educated professional class", then no, not in Canada. I personally know people with engineering/science degrees who became "warehouse sorters", baristas, metal workers, parcel deliverers, cooks in cafeteria. Some of them eventually found programming jobs again, others are still employed in blue collar/service jobs after 3+ years.
- morkalork 7mo ago
  Canadian programming job market is weird, places are hiring and can't find people, and people are looking and not being hired. IMO nobody wants a junior and everyone wants the mythically perfect candidate. Employers are gonna have to bite the bullet and hire people less qualified and train them up but they refuse.
  - ftmootnomoat 7mo ago
    It's always been that way. They're looking for a senior at the price of a junior. That kind of job listing has always been around, and it makes companies look good to have openings.
BobaFloutist 7mo ago
>it is unthinkable for some professional with a master's degree to become a warehouse sorter. I mean I think you do actually have a salient point, but I also think there's a material difference between telling someone that's maybe been paid not a lot for half a of labor that they need to change industries and someone who's tens of thousands of dollars into debt that the implied social contract encouraging that debt was a house of cards and they need to start from scratch with 0 experience even ever being employed.

jackdoe 7mo ago

> I fully expect the next revolution to be fronted by that class. the keyboard warriors?

ftmootnomoat 7mo ago
Unironically yes. They were promised a seat in the ruling class. All they got was crippling debt. That’s how you incubate dissidents.
- aleph_minus_one 7mo ago
  > They were promised a seat in the ruling class. Where was this promise given? I am not aware of such a promise. :-( Addendum: I am really surprises that you claim such a promise existed, since a seat in the ruling class requires a very different training and different qualifications (even completely ignoring "soft entry barriers" like habits).
armchairhacker 7mo ago
In a world with stupid AGI and unmanned drones, the keyboard may be mightier than the sword (or gun etc.)

deleted 7mo ago

[deleted]

jmyeet 7mo ago

There's a double-whammy here of the Myth of Meritocracy [1] under capitalism and Prosperity Gospel [2] under Protestantism. After the Civil War we compensated slave owners. After the GFC we bailed out the banks. The government giving money to poor people is somehow a moral hazard yet the wealthy not only expect government handouts, they demand them. Many in tech don't seem to realize that after 2 centuries of automation coming for only blue-collar jobs, AI will finally come for theirs. Jobs losses, depressed wages, unpaid extra work and constant layoff churn. The heady heights of the 2010s will seem like a fairy tale. Except this time, unlike a century ago, there is no labor movement. It's been decimated. There is no effective pushback against further wealth concentration to like 100,000 people. The Jeff Bezoes of the world will demand even more government money so they can have $205 billion instead of $200 billion and things will get really bad until eventually we have a Russian or french type revolution. Too many people think it's a big club when it isn't. As George Carlin said, you're not in it [3]. People actively advocate for their own worsening material conditions because they're deluded into thinking they'll be Jeff Bezos one day. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myth_of_meritocracy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myth_of_meritocracy [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperity_theology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperity_theology [3]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nyvxt1svxso https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nyvxt1svxso

deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
GerryAdamsSF 7mo ago
Revolution is no longer possible in the age of AI drones and Tiktok propaganda. The collapse of global society is much more likely than revolution.
readthenotes1 7mo ago
"compensated slave owners" Only in the district of Columbia. Such a distortion influenced me not to read the rest of your message

armchairhacker 7mo ago

> I've observed that when big waves of (labor) change washes over the working classes, it is met with "tough luck!" and some advice to seek a new profession, often starting again at the very bottom. Where have you observed this? I really believe that we should increase automation in blue-collar work, e.g. self-checkouts. But I don’t believe those displaced should “start at the bottom”. I believe they should get better (from their perspective) jobs, subsidized payments for whatever “job” they desire, or something in between (subsidized payments for jobs like community service and art, which have some value but don’t pay as much as they should because of desirability). I also believe we should do this for white-collar work, and executive-level. The only exception is jobs that benefit from human-ness, like service and figureheads, and these should be automated to be as easy (comfortable and effective) as possible while keeping the human.

jgalt212 7mo ago
> Where have you observed this? NAFTA
- BobaFloutist 7mo ago
  I keep hearing this, what policy do you think we should have pursued instead of NAFTA? I assume you wouldn't want completely open free markets, so some form of protectionism? Tariffs? Import quotas? Should we have started a trade war with Mexico and Canada? I could see a fair argument that NAFTA should have insisted on labor protections and parity in minimum wages, but it's weird because NAFTA is already somewhat protectionist, albeit including Canada and Mexico under the umbrella. So even if I steelman that your beef is that it didn't go far enough, that doesn't really explain the vitriol.

keybored 7mo ago

Even people like me are getting masters degrees (working on it). I don’t understand how to square this with the inflation that these degrees have got.

algo314 7mo ago

What you're saying is also similar to what Marx says about ideology that ruling sensibilities align with the interest of the bourgeoisie rather than proletariat. Same is true for geo-politics a man killed in a developed nation is somewhat exceptional to man killed in the "other" countries.

betaby 7mo ago

> But when this happens to the educated professional class, all hell breaks loose. If the programmers fall into the "educated professional class", then no, not in Canada. I personally know people with engineering/science degrees who became "warehouse sorters", baristas, metal workers, parcel deliverers, cooks in cafeteria. Some of them eventually found programming jobs again, others are still employed in blue collar/service jobs after 3+ years.

morkalork 7mo ago
Canadian programming job market is weird, places are hiring and can't find people, and people are looking and not being hired. IMO nobody wants a junior and everyone wants the mythically perfect candidate. Employers are gonna have to bite the bullet and hire people less qualified and train them up but they refuse.
- ftmootnomoat 7mo ago
  It's always been that way. They're looking for a senior at the price of a junior. That kind of job listing has always been around, and it makes companies look good to have openings.

BobaFloutist 7mo ago

>it is unthinkable for some professional with a master's degree to become a warehouse sorter. I mean I think you do actually have a salient point, but I also think there's a material difference between telling someone that's maybe been paid not a lot for half a of labor that they need to change industries and someone who's tens of thousands of dollars into debt that the implied social contract encouraging that debt was a house of cards and they need to start from scratch with 0 experience even ever being employed.