3 ms·

I said it before and I say it again: If openly bribing a crony gov to cancel your competitor is now the de-facto standard of making business in the US, I don't

I said it before and I say it again: If openly bribing a crony gov to cancel your competitor is now the de-facto standard of making business in the US, I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. When the rule of law degrades into pay-to-play politics, the inevitable result is a mass exodus of both capital and top-tier talent. And to add to this quoting another commentator on the issue: First the Meritocracy goes, then the Freedom goes.

deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
exceptione 7mo ago
You can download the manual from kremlin.gov, and I am only half-joking here.
bdangubic 7mo ago
That is already started to happen but it cannot happen overnight. Not only is it not easy but finding alternatives is also not easy. Just think of from your own personal perspective, say you have $100m right now invested in US business and wisely you say "I gotta get my shit away from this mess" - where exactly would you park your assets? You will find a way of course but you won't be moving $100m elsewhere overnight
hungryhobbit 7mo ago
Rational investors live in reality. In reality, a great deal of business conducted throughout the world involves graft; companies accept that, and keep doing business. It's not a good thing, AT ALL. There's a huge loss of overall productivity when you have corrupt systems (see Russia), which is why modern governments have worked so hard to lower corruption. But Trump ruining all that isn't going to end business ... it's just going to make everyone pay more for everything.
- watwut 7mo ago
  > which is why modern governments have worked so hard to lower corruption I would argue that they did not. They should have and some were better then others. But, bulk of financial markets, all of predictionmarkets and crypto, startups and sillicon valley, Musk imperium, Thiel, Murdock, all run on corruption. And to large extend, Trump is the endgame of that.
ImPostingOnHN 7mo ago
Investor: "here's a million dollars for a ballroom, it'd be real nice if you cancelled the government's contract with our investment's competitors." Seems like a great ROI. The loser is Average Joe with a 401(k).
- burkaman 7mo ago
  Actually $25 million, and for him specifically (https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/brockman-openai-top-trump-donor-21273419.php https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/brockman-openai-top-trum...). They didn't bother trying to pretend it was a non-political donation, who cares? Nobody can stop them.
georgemcbay 7mo ago
> I said it before and I say it again: If openly bribing a crony gov to cancel your competitor is now the de-facto standard of making business in the US, I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. Arguably large parts of the market in the US have been irrational and largely vibes based for a long time at this point. This action (like many others coming out of the Trump administration) adds to the chaos but I tend to doubt it will be the event that causes Wile E. Coyote to look down.
- idontgetit1988 7mo ago
  >I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. You don't see how? Well, just watch and wait, and you will see that this will have essentially zero effect on US investment. It's petty and sad, but nothing ever happens. Who else is even in the conversation? China? They would never do something like this!
jcims 7mo ago
Been going on for a long time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture
- digdugdirk 7mo ago
  There is a substantial difference between the standard lobbying and greasing the legislative wheels, and what's going on with this current administration. Even if companies were pretending to play by the rules before, at least they had some need to put in the effort to pretend. When a society can see belligerent ostentatious corruption going on as the norm, nothing good can follow.
  - JackSlateur 7mo ago
    At least of the previous couple US election, "people" paid more than a billion dollar each wanna-be president That is investment aka corruption
  - thunky 7mo ago
    > Even if companies were pretending to play by the rules before, at least they had some need to put in the effort to pretend I'm not sure that's better. I'm hopeful that all this open air corruption leads to real reform. But I'm sure I'll be disappointed.
bdelmas 7mo ago
> I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment You are right it won’t be as secured as before but it’s only risk management. As much as investing in a oil company in Brazil is a risk because you could have their government takeover the company to make it part of the government and screw you in the process. It’s still tradable.

deleted 7mo ago

[deleted]

exceptione 7mo ago

You can download the manual from kremlin.gov, and I am only half-joking here.

bdangubic 7mo ago

That is already started to happen but it cannot happen overnight. Not only is it not easy but finding alternatives is also not easy. Just think of from your own personal perspective, say you have $100m right now invested in US business and wisely you say "I gotta get my shit away from this mess" - where exactly would you park your assets? You will find a way of course but you won't be moving $100m elsewhere overnight

hungryhobbit 7mo ago

Rational investors live in reality. In reality, a great deal of business conducted throughout the world involves graft; companies accept that, and keep doing business. It's not a good thing, AT ALL. There's a huge loss of overall productivity when you have corrupt systems (see Russia), which is why modern governments have worked so hard to lower corruption. But Trump ruining all that isn't going to end business ... it's just going to make everyone pay more for everything.

watwut 7mo ago
> which is why modern governments have worked so hard to lower corruption I would argue that they did not. They should have and some were better then others. But, bulk of financial markets, all of predictionmarkets and crypto, startups and sillicon valley, Musk imperium, Thiel, Murdock, all run on corruption. And to large extend, Trump is the endgame of that.

ImPostingOnHN 7mo ago

Investor: "here's a million dollars for a ballroom, it'd be real nice if you cancelled the government's contract with our investment's competitors." Seems like a great ROI. The loser is Average Joe with a 401(k).

burkaman 7mo ago
Actually $25 million, and for him specifically (https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/brockman-openai-top-trump-donor-21273419.php https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/brockman-openai-top-trum...). They didn't bother trying to pretend it was a non-political donation, who cares? Nobody can stop them.

georgemcbay 7mo ago

> I said it before and I say it again: If openly bribing a crony gov to cancel your competitor is now the de-facto standard of making business in the US, I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. Arguably large parts of the market in the US have been irrational and largely vibes based for a long time at this point. This action (like many others coming out of the Trump administration) adds to the chaos but I tend to doubt it will be the event that causes Wile E. Coyote to look down.

idontgetit1988 7mo ago
>I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. You don't see how? Well, just watch and wait, and you will see that this will have essentially zero effect on US investment. It's petty and sad, but nothing ever happens. Who else is even in the conversation? China? They would never do something like this!

jcims 7mo ago

Been going on for a long time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture

digdugdirk 7mo ago
There is a substantial difference between the standard lobbying and greasing the legislative wheels, and what's going on with this current administration. Even if companies were pretending to play by the rules before, at least they had some need to put in the effort to pretend. When a society can see belligerent ostentatious corruption going on as the norm, nothing good can follow.
- JackSlateur 7mo ago
  At least of the previous couple US election, "people" paid more than a billion dollar each wanna-be president That is investment aka corruption
- thunky 7mo ago
  > Even if companies were pretending to play by the rules before, at least they had some need to put in the effort to pretend I'm not sure that's better. I'm hopeful that all this open air corruption leads to real reform. But I'm sure I'll be disappointed.

bdelmas 7mo ago

> I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment You are right it won’t be as secured as before but it’s only risk management. As much as investing in a oil company in Brazil is a risk because you could have their government takeover the company to make it part of the government and screw you in the process. It’s still tradable.