6 ms·

He also said that gulf states expended 800 patriot missiles (about 1 year of production) which is more than Ukraine got over the whole war

by yread 7mo ago

dmix 7mo ago
Plus apparently the US only ordered 73 THAAD interceptors over the last 4yrs, when there was capacity to make 384 https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/2029405914931863830 https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/2029405914931863830
trhway 7mo ago
US just have too much money as moving to use interceptor drones is very simple when you have the need. Russia and Ukraine both ultimately scaled up volunteer started development and production of that "fastest drone on Youtube" for the interceptor role. Cheap, simple, and works against pretty much any prop-driven drone used there. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1rigqam/operator_pov_footage_of_an_elka_dronekiller/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1rigqam/oper... Russia did start to use those hobby jet engines instead of props on the attack drones, and that made them go 600km/h instead of 200km/h. I'm yet to see the interceptor drone for that - it will also have to use, while smaller, such a hobby jet engine. Again laughably cheap - $3K Alibaba. (there are some other options too, i think we'll see them in time too (if anybody have few mils to burn - ping me :). Anyway, the guys are having wonderful time as their hobby became the eye of the global multibillion hurricane of hot military tech. Even the Blackwater guy - the one who was riding the money tsunami back in the Iraq time - got into it by just recently becoming some C-exec in a pre-IPO Ukranian drone developer)
- phil21 7mo ago
  AA artillery (radar guided, I'm sure even better improvements with modern tech could be made) seems like a pretty easy win here as well? Cheap bullets, downside being populated areas might impose a risk due to low-flying objects and the interception trajectories needed. Something like the Phalanx only not $50k/burst.
  - trhway 7mo ago
    > low-flying objects and the interception trajectories needed that is the key. It is much more easy from all the aspects - logistics, cost, agility, etc... - to patrol, discover and intercept from a higher flying drone. The drone can (and will be) added with AI (already some) and can come closer for the AI to work better, to make sure and can abort the attack if there is a mistake, while AI on classic radar guided AA requires expensive optics to do that at distance. >radar guided FPV, in visual and IR, cost pennies and available in millions of units from Alibaba, while those military radars cost a lot and not many of them are available. The radar guided AA is used and works where needed and there not much other options - like for cruise missiles, 850km/h. You can see videos - the window of opportunity is usually short as cruise missile is also relatively low flying.
  - chasd00 7mo ago
    > Something like the Phalanx only not $50k/burst. i was going to say, CRAM would be effective at a close, slow moving, predictable target. The rounds self-destruct based on a timer if they miss so you're not raining bullets all over the place. It's is also portable and can be parked almost anywhere. I'm not sure if the burst is configurable but slow moving drones are easier to hit than a missile so it seems like the burst duration could be turned down too. You'd have to figure out a way to keep them from shooting down _everything_ though. https://youtu.be/HbhOUUAPvM4?si=LCiZmTdCArD_ZN_q https://youtu.be/HbhOUUAPvM4?si=LCiZmTdCArD_ZN_q
- mrguyorama 7mo ago
  That's really neat hah. The US deployed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon... to "cheaply" kill incoming slow munitions. It requires planes in the air but that's sort of table stakes for an operation involving the US in general. We can make plenty of those rockets. They are cheaper than Shaheds! Though that doesn't count the plane time! $20k per hour per plane at least. As the cat and mouse game continues, Shahed style weapons used against countries with any meaningful defense, like "drone interceptors" or helicopters or old warplanes, the munitions will continue to evolve towards "Just a guided missile at this point", where the situation again transitions back to the economics of cruise missile vs patriot. The Hydra pods can be used against any precision weapon up to subsonic cruise missiles, so their versatility and pricetag only gets more effective, while every effort making the Shahed more survivable only makes it more expensive and harder to build. In an interesting twist, a good air force now ends up doing good work against cruise missiles. If cruise missiles try to go faster, supersonic, to make these Hydra pods ineffective, they end up getting more expensive rather quick, at which point the $4 million patriot missile makes sense. The Patriot isn't even a fiscally efficient anti-missile system. The Israeli Iron Dome can intercept subsonic cruise missiles and costs about $100k an interception. Most "Missile Defense" munitions are expensive because they have to be capable against ballistic missiles, which are much more difficult to intercept. MANPADS are sometimes effective against cruise missiles and they are often cheap and plentiful, though putting them in the right place at the right time is the hard problem there. The Hydra pods are actually better in that case because a modern jet will reposition rather quickly. Then the problem becomes noticing the incoming munitions early enough to get a plane on its tail. All this still depends on industry to build it though. These missiles are cheap in bulk but that still requires the factory exist, and that isn't always cheap or easy or fast. In Ukraine, drones get a secondary benefit of being a very survivable industry, as it uses entirely commodity components and even 3D printed parts so it can easy disperse and scale however you can manage.
  - chasd00 7mo ago
    from the last paragraph of the wiki article you linked > In June 2020, BAE announced they had completed test firings of the APKWS from a ground launcher for the first time so it seems like they've got them launching from the ground. That seems like a real possibility to defend against these kinds of drones. However, I don't think it's a problem of technology or cost right now but of availability.
exceptione 7mo ago
Asymmetric warfare, a concept that costed the USA a few trillions before. A patient observer of the war in Ukraine could have updated some war doctrines. If you are an American tax payer, I would understand it if you were banging your head on the table right now. These flying lawn mowers are perfect for a Denial of Dollar (DoD) attack.
- thewebguyd 7mo ago
  > A patient observer of the war in Ukraine could have updated some war doctrines. A patient observer? Any random idiot of the street that cares to watch the news occasionally could've figured that out. > If you are an American tax payer, I would understand it if you were banging your head on the table right now Oh I am, and my representatives hear from me very, very often. Unfortunately, it falls on deaf ears. Seemingly no one around me cares, and our leaders certainly don't. I feel like I'm going insane and living in some kind of weird bizzaro world.
  - blooalien 7mo ago
    > I feel like I'm going insane and living in some kind of weird bizzaro world. You're (probably) not going insane. Much of humanity's leadership is going insane, and their cult-like worshippers are right there with them. You're just bein' the "odd man out" tryin' to stay sane in a crazy world ruled by crazy people with way too much money and power.
- nine_k 7mo ago
  Shooting Patriots at flying lawn mowers (I suppose you mean Shaheds, Gerberas, and the like) is crazy. Patriots are key to shooting down ballistic missiles. To the best of my knowledge, the explosives-laden lawn mowers flying over Ukraine are mostly destroyed by cannon fire from the ground, cannon / machine-gun fire from aircraft (including converted GA aircraft), and interceptor drones. I expect the US armed forces to be testing oodles of various cheap drones by now. E.g. the US has used Shahed-lookalike drones while attacking Iran recently.
  - 7mo ago
BurningFrog 7mo ago
So you can only sustainably use 2.2 patriot missiles per day?
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- sigwinch 7mo ago
  Less, actually. Lockheed Martin made 620 MSE last year.

He also said that gulf states expended 800 patriot missiles (about 1 year of production) which is more than Ukraine got over the whole war

by yread 7mo ago

He also said that gulf states expended 800 patriot missiles (about 1 year of production) which is more than Ukraine got over the whole war

dmix 7mo ago

Plus apparently the US only ordered 73 THAAD interceptors over the last 4yrs, when there was capacity to make 384 https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/2029405914931863830 https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/2029405914931863830

trhway 7mo ago

US just have too much money as moving to use interceptor drones is very simple when you have the need. Russia and Ukraine both ultimately scaled up volunteer started development and production of that "fastest drone on Youtube" for the interceptor role. Cheap, simple, and works against pretty much any prop-driven drone used there. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1rigqam/operator_pov_footage_of_an_elka_dronekiller/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1rigqam/oper... Russia did start to use those hobby jet engines instead of props on the attack drones, and that made them go 600km/h instead of 200km/h. I'm yet to see the interceptor drone for that - it will also have to use, while smaller, such a hobby jet engine. Again laughably cheap - $3K Alibaba. (there are some other options too, i think we'll see them in time too (if anybody have few mils to burn - ping me :). Anyway, the guys are having wonderful time as their hobby became the eye of the global multibillion hurricane of hot military tech. Even the Blackwater guy - the one who was riding the money tsunami back in the Iraq time - got into it by just recently becoming some C-exec in a pre-IPO Ukranian drone developer)

phil21 7mo ago
AA artillery (radar guided, I'm sure even better improvements with modern tech could be made) seems like a pretty easy win here as well? Cheap bullets, downside being populated areas might impose a risk due to low-flying objects and the interception trajectories needed. Something like the Phalanx only not $50k/burst.
- trhway 7mo ago
  > low-flying objects and the interception trajectories needed that is the key. It is much more easy from all the aspects - logistics, cost, agility, etc... - to patrol, discover and intercept from a higher flying drone. The drone can (and will be) added with AI (already some) and can come closer for the AI to work better, to make sure and can abort the attack if there is a mistake, while AI on classic radar guided AA requires expensive optics to do that at distance. >radar guided FPV, in visual and IR, cost pennies and available in millions of units from Alibaba, while those military radars cost a lot and not many of them are available. The radar guided AA is used and works where needed and there not much other options - like for cruise missiles, 850km/h. You can see videos - the window of opportunity is usually short as cruise missile is also relatively low flying.
- chasd00 7mo ago
  > Something like the Phalanx only not $50k/burst. i was going to say, CRAM would be effective at a close, slow moving, predictable target. The rounds self-destruct based on a timer if they miss so you're not raining bullets all over the place. It's is also portable and can be parked almost anywhere. I'm not sure if the burst is configurable but slow moving drones are easier to hit than a missile so it seems like the burst duration could be turned down too. You'd have to figure out a way to keep them from shooting down _everything_ though. https://youtu.be/HbhOUUAPvM4?si=LCiZmTdCArD_ZN_q https://youtu.be/HbhOUUAPvM4?si=LCiZmTdCArD_ZN_q
mrguyorama 7mo ago
That's really neat hah. The US deployed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon... to "cheaply" kill incoming slow munitions. It requires planes in the air but that's sort of table stakes for an operation involving the US in general. We can make plenty of those rockets. They are cheaper than Shaheds! Though that doesn't count the plane time! $20k per hour per plane at least. As the cat and mouse game continues, Shahed style weapons used against countries with any meaningful defense, like "drone interceptors" or helicopters or old warplanes, the munitions will continue to evolve towards "Just a guided missile at this point", where the situation again transitions back to the economics of cruise missile vs patriot. The Hydra pods can be used against any precision weapon up to subsonic cruise missiles, so their versatility and pricetag only gets more effective, while every effort making the Shahed more survivable only makes it more expensive and harder to build. In an interesting twist, a good air force now ends up doing good work against cruise missiles. If cruise missiles try to go faster, supersonic, to make these Hydra pods ineffective, they end up getting more expensive rather quick, at which point the $4 million patriot missile makes sense. The Patriot isn't even a fiscally efficient anti-missile system. The Israeli Iron Dome can intercept subsonic cruise missiles and costs about $100k an interception. Most "Missile Defense" munitions are expensive because they have to be capable against ballistic missiles, which are much more difficult to intercept. MANPADS are sometimes effective against cruise missiles and they are often cheap and plentiful, though putting them in the right place at the right time is the hard problem there. The Hydra pods are actually better in that case because a modern jet will reposition rather quickly. Then the problem becomes noticing the incoming munitions early enough to get a plane on its tail. All this still depends on industry to build it though. These missiles are cheap in bulk but that still requires the factory exist, and that isn't always cheap or easy or fast. In Ukraine, drones get a secondary benefit of being a very survivable industry, as it uses entirely commodity components and even 3D printed parts so it can easy disperse and scale however you can manage.
- chasd00 7mo ago
  from the last paragraph of the wiki article you linked > In June 2020, BAE announced they had completed test firings of the APKWS from a ground launcher for the first time so it seems like they've got them launching from the ground. That seems like a real possibility to defend against these kinds of drones. However, I don't think it's a problem of technology or cost right now but of availability.

exceptione 7mo ago

Asymmetric warfare, a concept that costed the USA a few trillions before. A patient observer of the war in Ukraine could have updated some war doctrines. If you are an American tax payer, I would understand it if you were banging your head on the table right now. These flying lawn mowers are perfect for a Denial of Dollar (DoD) attack.

thewebguyd 7mo ago
> A patient observer of the war in Ukraine could have updated some war doctrines. A patient observer? Any random idiot of the street that cares to watch the news occasionally could've figured that out. > If you are an American tax payer, I would understand it if you were banging your head on the table right now Oh I am, and my representatives hear from me very, very often. Unfortunately, it falls on deaf ears. Seemingly no one around me cares, and our leaders certainly don't. I feel like I'm going insane and living in some kind of weird bizzaro world.
- blooalien 7mo ago
  > I feel like I'm going insane and living in some kind of weird bizzaro world. You're (probably) not going insane. Much of humanity's leadership is going insane, and their cult-like worshippers are right there with them. You're just bein' the "odd man out" tryin' to stay sane in a crazy world ruled by crazy people with way too much money and power.
nine_k 7mo ago
Shooting Patriots at flying lawn mowers (I suppose you mean Shaheds, Gerberas, and the like) is crazy. Patriots are key to shooting down ballistic missiles. To the best of my knowledge, the explosives-laden lawn mowers flying over Ukraine are mostly destroyed by cannon fire from the ground, cannon / machine-gun fire from aircraft (including converted GA aircraft), and interceptor drones. I expect the US armed forces to be testing oodles of various cheap drones by now. E.g. the US has used Shahed-lookalike drones while attacking Iran recently.
- 7mo ago

BurningFrog 7mo ago

So you can only sustainably use 2.2 patriot missiles per day?

deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
sigwinch 7mo ago
Less, actually. Lockheed Martin made 620 MSE last year.