4 ms·

The RAM shortage is... a shortage. It's temporary by nature. RAM didn't suddenly get 4x more expensive to produce, it's just in high demand right now. Supply wi

by Ajedi32 8mo ago

The RAM shortage is... a shortage. It's temporary by nature. RAM didn't suddenly get 4x more expensive to produce, it's just in high demand right now. Supply will eventually catch up even if it takes a few years.

andriy_koval 8mo ago
> Supply will eventually catch up even if it takes a few years. I am wondering if this so true. What resources and time are needed to increase supply by N times to catch demand.
- Ajedi32 8mo ago
  The resources are certainly there; the high prices are providing them. It's just a matter of time.
- wmf 8mo ago
  Supply will catch up to demand when demand goes down.
- littlestymaar 8mo ago
  Also supply will only increase if producers believe the current level of demand is going to be sustainable in the long term. Which I don't think anyone really believes. The same way nobody wanted to invest in mask supply in the US or Western Europe during covid, because producers knew the demand spike wouldn't last and they'll be left with useless equipment to pay after the crisis passed.
  - Ajedi32 8mo ago
    Correct, but if they're right in that belief then it's still just a matter of time before demand goes down and the shortage is solved. If they're wrong and this is actually a permanent spike in demand, then it'll take the industry a while to realize it but eventually they'll collectively figure it out and increase supply. The ones who figure it out soonest and increase supply fastest will profit the most. The ones who figure it out slowest will lose market share.
  - andriy_koval 8mo ago
    > demand is going to be sustainable in the long term. Which I don't think anyone really believes. I am one who think there is a chance it will sustain. AI is useful tool, Opus unlocks N times productivity gain for devs since Opus 4.5, which is available just for 3 months. This means adaptation is just started, it could expand on all kind of usecases, niches, solving problems, products, etc, which could be N times more demand for compute from what we have now.
zardo 8mo ago
Or they'll just enjoy the high margins and not invest significantly more than they normally would in new production capacity.
- Ajedi32 8mo ago
  And thereby leave a bunch of profits on the table while simultaneously losing market share to competitors who do invest in more capacity?
  - littlestymaar 8mo ago
    Which competitor is going to invest in increasing their capacity when everyone expects the demand to decline sooner rather than later?
    - Ajedi32 8mo ago
      If demand declines then the shortage is still solved regardless. If it doesn't decline, than anyone who took that risk and increased their production capacity will benefit greatly, and those who didn't will lose market share.
      - zardo 8mo ago
        They're in business to make money not to solve the shortage. If they invest in new fabs and the bubble pops they're sitting on idle fabs.
        Ajedi32 8mo ago
        And if they invest in new fabs and the bubble doesn't pop then they make a whole lot of that money they're in business to make. The incentives here are naturally very well aligned with solving the shortage. If doing nothing is likely to solve the shortage, then they'll do nothing. If increasing supply is likely to solve the shortage, then they'll increase supply. If there's a 50/50 chance of both, then some will increase supply and some will do nothing, and the market will reward whichever group was right and punish the other.
mort96 8mo ago
Most of us are not really doing detailed half-decade hardware purchasing plans, for most of us "the next few years" is really the only relevant time frame.
- Aldipower 8mo ago
  I have a 9 year cycle for my main machine. Not sure what's yours?
  - sowbug 8mo ago
    When someone is in the market for a new computer, they rarely look more than months ahead, no matter how long your cycle is.
  - mort96 8mo ago
    Right now I'm on a 2021 MacBook Pro, I'm debating whether to upgrade to the new M5 Pro laptops or to wait until next year; so that's 5-6 years. My desktop gets upgraded over time, so it's not really on a "cycle"; it's more that every few years, I may decide to get a more powerful CPU, or more RAM, or a new GPU, or more storage, or whatever else. Though I recently (as in, during the past year) upgraded from an AM4 CPU to an AM5 CPU, so that meant I replaced more than usual; everything other than the GPU, storage, power supply and peripherals. (I switched from ITX to mATX for an extra PCI slot so the case had to go; though it still lives on in the form of a lab PC of sorts, along with my old i7 6700k) But common among all these replacements is that they're not really planned in detail years before. I may weigh up factors like "I don't really need an upgrade right now" against factors like "the market looks like it'll probably get really shitty later this year", or "I could really really use an upgrade right now" against "but the market is shitty now and we're right before a product launch which will shake things up". But I always react to my current or near-future needs/wants and current or near-future market conditions. So hearing "the RAM market will be good again in 5 years" is completely irrelevant to me. My decisions are entirely based around how the RAM market is right now and how I believe it will look throughout the year or the next.

by Ajedi32 8mo ago

andriy_koval 8mo ago

> Supply will eventually catch up even if it takes a few years. I am wondering if this so true. What resources and time are needed to increase supply by N times to catch demand.

Ajedi32 8mo ago
The resources are certainly there; the high prices are providing them. It's just a matter of time.
wmf 8mo ago
Supply will catch up to demand when demand goes down.
littlestymaar 8mo ago
Also supply will only increase if producers believe the current level of demand is going to be sustainable in the long term. Which I don't think anyone really believes. The same way nobody wanted to invest in mask supply in the US or Western Europe during covid, because producers knew the demand spike wouldn't last and they'll be left with useless equipment to pay after the crisis passed.
- Ajedi32 8mo ago
  Correct, but if they're right in that belief then it's still just a matter of time before demand goes down and the shortage is solved. If they're wrong and this is actually a permanent spike in demand, then it'll take the industry a while to realize it but eventually they'll collectively figure it out and increase supply. The ones who figure it out soonest and increase supply fastest will profit the most. The ones who figure it out slowest will lose market share.
- andriy_koval 8mo ago
  > demand is going to be sustainable in the long term. Which I don't think anyone really believes. I am one who think there is a chance it will sustain. AI is useful tool, Opus unlocks N times productivity gain for devs since Opus 4.5, which is available just for 3 months. This means adaptation is just started, it could expand on all kind of usecases, niches, solving problems, products, etc, which could be N times more demand for compute from what we have now.

zardo 8mo ago

Or they'll just enjoy the high margins and not invest significantly more than they normally would in new production capacity.

Ajedi32 8mo ago
And thereby leave a bunch of profits on the table while simultaneously losing market share to competitors who do invest in more capacity?
- littlestymaar 8mo ago
  Which competitor is going to invest in increasing their capacity when everyone expects the demand to decline sooner rather than later?
  - Ajedi32 8mo ago
    If demand declines then the shortage is still solved regardless. If it doesn't decline, than anyone who took that risk and increased their production capacity will benefit greatly, and those who didn't will lose market share.
    - zardo 8mo ago
      They're in business to make money not to solve the shortage. If they invest in new fabs and the bubble pops they're sitting on idle fabs.
      - Ajedi32 8mo ago
        And if they invest in new fabs and the bubble doesn't pop then they make a whole lot of that money they're in business to make. The incentives here are naturally very well aligned with solving the shortage. If doing nothing is likely to solve the shortage, then they'll do nothing. If increasing supply is likely to solve the shortage, then they'll increase supply. If there's a 50/50 chance of both, then some will increase supply and some will do nothing, and the market will reward whichever group was right and punish the other.

mort96 8mo ago

Most of us are not really doing detailed half-decade hardware purchasing plans, for most of us "the next few years" is really the only relevant time frame.

Aldipower 8mo ago
I have a 9 year cycle for my main machine. Not sure what's yours?
- sowbug 8mo ago
  When someone is in the market for a new computer, they rarely look more than months ahead, no matter how long your cycle is.
- mort96 8mo ago
  Right now I'm on a 2021 MacBook Pro, I'm debating whether to upgrade to the new M5 Pro laptops or to wait until next year; so that's 5-6 years. My desktop gets upgraded over time, so it's not really on a "cycle"; it's more that every few years, I may decide to get a more powerful CPU, or more RAM, or a new GPU, or more storage, or whatever else. Though I recently (as in, during the past year) upgraded from an AM4 CPU to an AM5 CPU, so that meant I replaced more than usual; everything other than the GPU, storage, power supply and peripherals. (I switched from ITX to mATX for an extra PCI slot so the case had to go; though it still lives on in the form of a lab PC of sorts, along with my old i7 6700k) But common among all these replacements is that they're not really planned in detail years before. I may weigh up factors like "I don't really need an upgrade right now" against factors like "the market looks like it'll probably get really shitty later this year", or "I could really really use an upgrade right now" against "but the market is shitty now and we're right before a product launch which will shake things up". But I always react to my current or near-future needs/wants and current or near-future market conditions. So hearing "the RAM market will be good again in 5 years" is completely irrelevant to me. My decisions are entirely based around how the RAM market is right now and how I believe it will look throughout the year or the next.