5 ms·

Their hoped-for completion date is "2031". Anyone want to hazard a guess about what their actual completion date for this plant will be?

by rgmerk 7mo ago

willis936 7mo ago
No, but I'm certain the polymarket gamblers do.
- rgmerk 7mo ago
  I did have the same thought, had a quick look (I'm not a polymarket user) and couldn't find a market relating to this project. Put it this way, if it's in commercial operation by 2031 I'll eat my hat.
  - GorbachevyChase 7mo ago
    If the DOW needs fissile material, then you might be impressed at how fast things are done. The obstacles are mostly discretionary.
  - hunterpayne 7mo ago
    There is one, its hard to find. It only has about 19k of volume, so its very thinly traded.
    - rgmerk 7mo ago
      Can you link to it? I'm curious.
      - hunterpayne 7mo ago
        https://polymarket.com/event/us-grants-license-for-new-nuclear-reactor-in-2026 https://polymarket.com/event/us-grants-license-for-new-nucle...
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
mikeyouse 7mo ago
Presumably it’ll end up like the NuScale one, raise a few billion for design and prototyping and then every 6 months or so increase the target wholesale price by 50% until it makes no sense at all economically to begin primary construction. They’ll reverse IPO along the way and manipulate the stock enough to get insiders paid out while the carcass of a company trundles along.
- rgmerk 7mo ago
  In theory, at least, they have finished their design, had it reviewed by the NRC, and had it approved, so there should be no significant design changes. But that also applies for the current generation of reactors and nobody can build them to schedule or budget in the USA or Europe.
  - topspin 7mo ago
    > so there should be no significant design changes The NRC frequently changes requirements for reactors while they're under construction. The NRC does not waive the right to demand changes merely due to prior design approval. This is a novel (for the US) design, so there will be unanticipated changes as the project progresses. Russia has been operating two sodium cooled fast reactors for decades. The BN-600 and BN-800 are both operating today. The early history of the BN-600 was... interesting, suffering (at least) 14 sodium fires due to leaks. This "Natrium" design is similar; a sodium pool with two sodium loops. They are taking on the additional challenge of storing a massive quantity of molten salt. It's going to take a lot of effort by many steely eyed missile people to make this happen. Trump issued an EO in 2025 that's supposed to make the NRC more circumspect about requiring changes of approved designs. Then there is all the pull Gates has. Wyoming is no hotbed of anti-nuclear activism. So that's all to TerraPower's favor. But TerraPower will need to fully utilize all the tailwind it can find to make this work.
  - mikeyouse 7mo ago
    Yep. NuScale received design certification as well and still ended up with multiple huge revisions. It’s not easy to build any nuclear, much less a FOAK reactor. But when that fails, you can just siphon up taxpayer money via your connections to the ruling cabal. https://www.thedailybeast.com/tiny-trump-linked-firm-in-line-for-25b-nuclear-deal/ https://www.thedailybeast.com/tiny-trump-linked-firm-in-line...
testing22321 7mo ago
China have 28 nukes under construction right now, and have built more in the last 30 years than the rest of the world combined. Even with all that experience and expertise, their questionable environmental policies and questionable worker rights, it still takes them SEVEN years to build a single nuke. The claim that anyone else can do it faster with zero recent experience isn’t only laughable, it’s downright fraud.
- hunterpayne 7mo ago
  The Chinese CAP1400s took 5 years and that's a new design to them. The first NPP was built in 1951 (ish) and took 18 months from blackboard to grid interconnection. Some designs take longer, others are shorter. Some parts of Vogal were rebuilt 3x times due to the federal government changing the design requirements multiple times during construction. Another challenge is that NPPs are built rarely enough that its hard to be a supplier to the nuclear industry so many parts are custom built per project. That doesn't have to be the case. The idea there is a hard limit of 7 years, sorry...that just isn't so.
  - pfdietz 7mo ago
    > 5 years Be careful with these figures. I understand they start the clock later than the west does.
    - Moldoteck 7mo ago
      Do they? Did japan start the clock later too with it's first ABWR?
      - pfdietz 7mo ago
        We weren't talking about Japan.
        Moldoteck 7mo ago
        We were talking about timelines. Chinese timelines are faster than western but slower than Japanese. So maybe you can expand your thought about how China is counting years differently
TheSpiceIsLife 7mo ago
Never. Come April, all the production and construction capacity will be commandeered for the war machine.
bdangubic 7mo ago
flip "2" and "3" in that year

Their hoped-for completion date is "2031". Anyone want to hazard a guess about what their actual completion date for this plant will be?

by rgmerk 7mo ago

Their hoped-for completion date is "2031". Anyone want to hazard a guess about what their actual completion date for this plant will be?

willis936 7mo ago

No, but I'm certain the polymarket gamblers do.

rgmerk 7mo ago
I did have the same thought, had a quick look (I'm not a polymarket user) and couldn't find a market relating to this project. Put it this way, if it's in commercial operation by 2031 I'll eat my hat.
- GorbachevyChase 7mo ago
  If the DOW needs fissile material, then you might be impressed at how fast things are done. The obstacles are mostly discretionary.
- hunterpayne 7mo ago
  There is one, its hard to find. It only has about 19k of volume, so its very thinly traded.
  - rgmerk 7mo ago
    Can you link to it? I'm curious.
    - hunterpayne 7mo ago
      https://polymarket.com/event/us-grants-license-for-new-nuclear-reactor-in-2026 https://polymarket.com/event/us-grants-license-for-new-nucle...

deleted 7mo ago

[deleted]

mikeyouse 7mo ago

Presumably it’ll end up like the NuScale one, raise a few billion for design and prototyping and then every 6 months or so increase the target wholesale price by 50% until it makes no sense at all economically to begin primary construction. They’ll reverse IPO along the way and manipulate the stock enough to get insiders paid out while the carcass of a company trundles along.

rgmerk 7mo ago
In theory, at least, they have finished their design, had it reviewed by the NRC, and had it approved, so there should be no significant design changes. But that also applies for the current generation of reactors and nobody can build them to schedule or budget in the USA or Europe.
- topspin 7mo ago
  > so there should be no significant design changes The NRC frequently changes requirements for reactors while they're under construction. The NRC does not waive the right to demand changes merely due to prior design approval. This is a novel (for the US) design, so there will be unanticipated changes as the project progresses. Russia has been operating two sodium cooled fast reactors for decades. The BN-600 and BN-800 are both operating today. The early history of the BN-600 was... interesting, suffering (at least) 14 sodium fires due to leaks. This "Natrium" design is similar; a sodium pool with two sodium loops. They are taking on the additional challenge of storing a massive quantity of molten salt. It's going to take a lot of effort by many steely eyed missile people to make this happen. Trump issued an EO in 2025 that's supposed to make the NRC more circumspect about requiring changes of approved designs. Then there is all the pull Gates has. Wyoming is no hotbed of anti-nuclear activism. So that's all to TerraPower's favor. But TerraPower will need to fully utilize all the tailwind it can find to make this work.
- mikeyouse 7mo ago
  Yep. NuScale received design certification as well and still ended up with multiple huge revisions. It’s not easy to build any nuclear, much less a FOAK reactor. But when that fails, you can just siphon up taxpayer money via your connections to the ruling cabal. https://www.thedailybeast.com/tiny-trump-linked-firm-in-line-for-25b-nuclear-deal/ https://www.thedailybeast.com/tiny-trump-linked-firm-in-line...

testing22321 7mo ago

China have 28 nukes under construction right now, and have built more in the last 30 years than the rest of the world combined. Even with all that experience and expertise, their questionable environmental policies and questionable worker rights, it still takes them SEVEN years to build a single nuke. The claim that anyone else can do it faster with zero recent experience isn’t only laughable, it’s downright fraud.

hunterpayne 7mo ago
The Chinese CAP1400s took 5 years and that's a new design to them. The first NPP was built in 1951 (ish) and took 18 months from blackboard to grid interconnection. Some designs take longer, others are shorter. Some parts of Vogal were rebuilt 3x times due to the federal government changing the design requirements multiple times during construction. Another challenge is that NPPs are built rarely enough that its hard to be a supplier to the nuclear industry so many parts are custom built per project. That doesn't have to be the case. The idea there is a hard limit of 7 years, sorry...that just isn't so.
- pfdietz 7mo ago
  > 5 years Be careful with these figures. I understand they start the clock later than the west does.
  - Moldoteck 7mo ago
    Do they? Did japan start the clock later too with it's first ABWR?
    - pfdietz 7mo ago
      We weren't talking about Japan.
      - Moldoteck 7mo ago
        We were talking about timelines. Chinese timelines are faster than western but slower than Japanese. So maybe you can expand your thought about how China is counting years differently

TheSpiceIsLife 7mo ago

Never. Come April, all the production and construction capacity will be commandeered for the war machine.

bdangubic 7mo ago

flip "2" and "3" in that year