4 ms·

The whole ME is in chaos nowadays. Some of those Arabian countries, such as Bahrain and Jordan, may even see civil unrest and such, which will further destabili

The whole ME is in chaos nowadays. Some of those Arabian countries, such as Bahrain and Jordan, may even see civil unrest and such, which will further destabilize the region. If the Kurdish people decided to take up the deal and go against Iran, and Turkey/Azerbaijan decided to follow suite, then it's going to be really messy.

alephnerd 8mo ago
> Bahrain Bahrain always had unrest issues due to it's laggard economy and communal issues - this was why KSA invaded it back during the Arab Spring. Something similar is always on the table for KSA. > Jordan Shia are nonexistent in Jordan, and Jordan was much more affected by the decade long Syrian Civil War right across the border and some of it's largest urban areas (especially the Irbid-Daraa area). > Kurdish people Kurds are not uniform. The Iraqi and Iranian Kurds tend to be much more socially conservative than their Syrian brethren (Turkish Kurds are somewhere in the middle). Turkiye also supports the KRG and PJAK as they don't support Oclanism and act as a buffer against Iran. > it's going to be really messy No one wants to admit it but that's the whole point. I mentioned this before on HN [0] - no one wants to admit this because it is a bad look, but it aligns with our interests. [0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47092612 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47092612
- markus_zhang 8mo ago
  Thanks. For Jordan I'm mostly thinking about their past history with Palestinian. Yeah I agree Kurds are not uniform. I'm not exactly sure about the differences but there was a piece of news from CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-ira... What do you think the possibility of Kurds getting a piece of land from Iran?
  - alephnerd 8mo ago
    > For Jordan I'm mostly thinking about their past history with Palestinian... Jordanian Palestinians tend to be middle and upper middle class now and cornered the Ex-Im business with Israel and the US (most Arab goods in the US are "Made in Jordan" for a reason, and why "Made in Jordan" textiles have become so common now at Costco and Walmart). Jordan also neighbored a similarly industrial country that collapsed into a decade long civil war (Syria). > What do you think the possibility of Kurds getting a piece of land from Iran Kurds are not uniform. The KRG (Iraqi Kurdistan) is fairly socially conservative as is Iranian Kurdistan. They are also extremely pro-America (the US protected the KRG since 1991), pro-Israel (Iraqi Kurdish Jews of the Barzani and Talabani clans are overrepresented in Israeli politics and defense careerists), and pro-Turkiye (they are a counterweight against Apo's PKK). I think it is likely we will allow a KRG dominated rump state form around Ilam-Kermanshah-Sanandaj-Mahabad. We will likely see a similar thing arise in Iranian Azerbaijan with Turkish+Azeri backing. Iran is already de facto nonexistent in much of Sistan-ve-Balochistan. Iraqi Shia Arab militias will most likely end up backing a rump state in the portions of Khuzestan neighboring southern Iraq and Kuwait.
    - markus_zhang 8mo ago
      > I think it is likely we will allow a KRG dominated rump state form around Ilam-Kermanshah-Sanandaj-Mahabad. Thanks, I think along the same line.
watwut 8mo ago
We will be lucky if this does not start WWIII. What are the Kurds supposed to get in the "deal" to go against Iran? It is pretty much guaranteed they wont get anything except betrayal in the long term, so it must be something "right now".
- alephnerd 8mo ago
  The KRG is different from the YPG/PKK led Syrian Kurds. A significant portion of Israel's leadership are ethnic Kurdish as well with continued blood ties in Iraqi Kurdistan (eg. Ben Gvir).
- markus_zhang 8mo ago
  There is a piece of news from CNN that says CIA arming them to fight Iran: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-ira...
  - watwut 8mo ago
    It does not answer my question - what will the Kurds get. That article makes it super clear what USA and Israel get. It says nothing about what Kurds get. And crucially, it does not says that Kurds agreed yet, it says that CIA is trying to make it happen. And the history is Kurds helping USA just to be abandoned later on. If they settled for some long term promises, they would be stupid. So, lets assume they get something in short term.
    - markus_zhang 8mo ago
      I do not know exactly. But I think they might be able to get their own official country somewhere in between Iraq and Iran.
      - watwut 8mo ago
        The problem is with own official country between Iraq and Iran is that it is long term promise. Will USA and Israel hold on their word a year or two later? Assuming success of course. Can Kurds rely on Trump administration and its succeeding administration to keep the word here? Will they?

alephnerd 8mo ago

> Bahrain Bahrain always had unrest issues due to it's laggard economy and communal issues - this was why KSA invaded it back during the Arab Spring. Something similar is always on the table for KSA. > Jordan Shia are nonexistent in Jordan, and Jordan was much more affected by the decade long Syrian Civil War right across the border and some of it's largest urban areas (especially the Irbid-Daraa area). > Kurdish people Kurds are not uniform. The Iraqi and Iranian Kurds tend to be much more socially conservative than their Syrian brethren (Turkish Kurds are somewhere in the middle). Turkiye also supports the KRG and PJAK as they don't support Oclanism and act as a buffer against Iran. > it's going to be really messy No one wants to admit it but that's the whole point. I mentioned this before on HN [0] - no one wants to admit this because it is a bad look, but it aligns with our interests. [0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47092612 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47092612

markus_zhang 8mo ago
Thanks. For Jordan I'm mostly thinking about their past history with Palestinian. Yeah I agree Kurds are not uniform. I'm not exactly sure about the differences but there was a piece of news from CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-ira... What do you think the possibility of Kurds getting a piece of land from Iran?
- alephnerd 8mo ago
  > For Jordan I'm mostly thinking about their past history with Palestinian... Jordanian Palestinians tend to be middle and upper middle class now and cornered the Ex-Im business with Israel and the US (most Arab goods in the US are "Made in Jordan" for a reason, and why "Made in Jordan" textiles have become so common now at Costco and Walmart). Jordan also neighbored a similarly industrial country that collapsed into a decade long civil war (Syria). > What do you think the possibility of Kurds getting a piece of land from Iran Kurds are not uniform. The KRG (Iraqi Kurdistan) is fairly socially conservative as is Iranian Kurdistan. They are also extremely pro-America (the US protected the KRG since 1991), pro-Israel (Iraqi Kurdish Jews of the Barzani and Talabani clans are overrepresented in Israeli politics and defense careerists), and pro-Turkiye (they are a counterweight against Apo's PKK). I think it is likely we will allow a KRG dominated rump state form around Ilam-Kermanshah-Sanandaj-Mahabad. We will likely see a similar thing arise in Iranian Azerbaijan with Turkish+Azeri backing. Iran is already de facto nonexistent in much of Sistan-ve-Balochistan. Iraqi Shia Arab militias will most likely end up backing a rump state in the portions of Khuzestan neighboring southern Iraq and Kuwait.
  - markus_zhang 8mo ago
    > I think it is likely we will allow a KRG dominated rump state form around Ilam-Kermanshah-Sanandaj-Mahabad. Thanks, I think along the same line.

watwut 8mo ago

We will be lucky if this does not start WWIII. What are the Kurds supposed to get in the "deal" to go against Iran? It is pretty much guaranteed they wont get anything except betrayal in the long term, so it must be something "right now".

alephnerd 8mo ago
The KRG is different from the YPG/PKK led Syrian Kurds. A significant portion of Israel's leadership are ethnic Kurdish as well with continued blood ties in Iraqi Kurdistan (eg. Ben Gvir).
markus_zhang 8mo ago
There is a piece of news from CNN that says CIA arming them to fight Iran: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-ira...
- watwut 8mo ago
  It does not answer my question - what will the Kurds get. That article makes it super clear what USA and Israel get. It says nothing about what Kurds get. And crucially, it does not says that Kurds agreed yet, it says that CIA is trying to make it happen. And the history is Kurds helping USA just to be abandoned later on. If they settled for some long term promises, they would be stupid. So, lets assume they get something in short term.
  - markus_zhang 8mo ago
    I do not know exactly. But I think they might be able to get their own official country somewhere in between Iraq and Iran.
    - watwut 8mo ago
      The problem is with own official country between Iraq and Iran is that it is long term promise. Will USA and Israel hold on their word a year or two later? Assuming success of course. Can Kurds rely on Trump administration and its succeeding administration to keep the word here? Will they?