2 ms·

While a bit reductionist, it's pretty much right. Tariffs can work if, and only if, the market believes the tariffs will last long enough to spin up entire indu

While a bit reductionist, it's pretty much right. Tariffs can work if, and only if, the market believes the tariffs will last long enough to spin up entire industries, and then recoup that investment. The problem with Trump's tariffs is that everyone knows they are relatively short term. At most, they'll last until the end of Trump's presidency, and even that's assuming that they don't get struck down by the courts, or Trump flip-flops on them like he does everything else. Without the ability to credibly ensure their ongoing existence, tariffs fail their only real purpose of incentivizing domestic manufacturing, instead acting as a regressive tax on your population.

jvandreae 8mo ago
> At most, they'll last until the end of Trump's presidency Eh, you don't think Vance will keep them going when he wins in 28? I do agree that the uncertainty is an issue.
- OkayPhysicist 8mo ago
  Probably not. The tariffs are a lever for Trump to personally work out self-enriching deals with individual countries. Vance doesn't have the kinds of connections that Trump has to leverage those kinds of deals, he's only really tied to Theil and company who put him in his current seat. I also put Vance's odds of winning real low, unless Trump dies rather soon. Vance was the first VP pick since we started doing political polling that reduced his ticket's approval rating. He's not nearly popular enough to keep up the cult of personality that Trump has built. If he's not President by the next election, I doubt he'd win the primaries.