4 ms·

Who the fuck is "we" as a cursory search has every economist saying "tarriffs are dumb"

by voxl 7mo ago

drob518 7mo ago
We the fuck is we. Consumers, that is. "Tariffs are dumb" sounds more like a temper tantrum than a meaningful comment from an actual economist.
- voxl 7mo ago
  "We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers." https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is-paying-for-the-2025-u-s-tariffs/ https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is... "we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth" https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7255316/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7255316/ "Overall, the evidence implies that tariff increases depress economic activity and trade once their indirect and general-equilibrium effects are taken into account." https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w34852/w34852.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w34852/w348... Hey, but the vibes of the consumer, right? Except the vibes of the consumer is at an all time low ( https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/02/04/a-year-into-trumps-second-term-americans-views-of-the-economy-remain-negative/ https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/02/04/a-year-into-...) With a notable exception being republicans, i.e., the death cult who screamed "No New Wars!" and "Kamala will start WW3" and are not sucking off daddy Trump's Iran war.
- OkayPhysicist 7mo ago
  While a bit reductionist, it's pretty much right. Tariffs can work if, and only if, the market believes the tariffs will last long enough to spin up entire industries, and then recoup that investment. The problem with Trump's tariffs is that everyone knows they are relatively short term. At most, they'll last until the end of Trump's presidency, and even that's assuming that they don't get struck down by the courts, or Trump flip-flops on them like he does everything else. Without the ability to credibly ensure their ongoing existence, tariffs fail their only real purpose of incentivizing domestic manufacturing, instead acting as a regressive tax on your population.
  - jvandreae 7mo ago
    > At most, they'll last until the end of Trump's presidency Eh, you don't think Vance will keep them going when he wins in 28? I do agree that the uncertainty is an issue.
    - OkayPhysicist 7mo ago
      Probably not. The tariffs are a lever for Trump to personally work out self-enriching deals with individual countries. Vance doesn't have the kinds of connections that Trump has to leverage those kinds of deals, he's only really tied to Theil and company who put him in his current seat. I also put Vance's odds of winning real low, unless Trump dies rather soon. Vance was the first VP pick since we started doing political polling that reduced his ticket's approval rating. He's not nearly popular enough to keep up the cult of personality that Trump has built. If he's not President by the next election, I doubt he'd win the primaries.

Who the fuck is "we" as a cursory search has every economist saying "tarriffs are dumb"

by voxl 7mo ago

Who the fuck is "we" as a cursory search has every economist saying "tarriffs are dumb"

We the fuck is we. Consumers, that is. "Tariffs are dumb" sounds more like a temper tantrum than a meaningful comment from an actual economist.

voxl 7mo ago
"We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers." https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is-paying-for-the-2025-u-s-tariffs/ https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is... "we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth" https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7255316/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7255316/ "Overall, the evidence implies that tariff increases depress economic activity and trade once their indirect and general-equilibrium effects are taken into account." https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w34852/w34852.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w34852/w348... Hey, but the vibes of the consumer, right? Except the vibes of the consumer is at an all time low ( https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/02/04/a-year-into-trumps-second-term-americans-views-of-the-economy-remain-negative/ https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/02/04/a-year-into-...) With a notable exception being republicans, i.e., the death cult who screamed "No New Wars!" and "Kamala will start WW3" and are not sucking off daddy Trump's Iran war.
OkayPhysicist 7mo ago
While a bit reductionist, it's pretty much right. Tariffs can work if, and only if, the market believes the tariffs will last long enough to spin up entire industries, and then recoup that investment. The problem with Trump's tariffs is that everyone knows they are relatively short term. At most, they'll last until the end of Trump's presidency, and even that's assuming that they don't get struck down by the courts, or Trump flip-flops on them like he does everything else. Without the ability to credibly ensure their ongoing existence, tariffs fail their only real purpose of incentivizing domestic manufacturing, instead acting as a regressive tax on your population.
- jvandreae 7mo ago
  > At most, they'll last until the end of Trump's presidency Eh, you don't think Vance will keep them going when he wins in 28? I do agree that the uncertainty is an issue.
  - OkayPhysicist 7mo ago
    Probably not. The tariffs are a lever for Trump to personally work out self-enriching deals with individual countries. Vance doesn't have the kinds of connections that Trump has to leverage those kinds of deals, he's only really tied to Theil and company who put him in his current seat. I also put Vance's odds of winning real low, unless Trump dies rather soon. Vance was the first VP pick since we started doing political polling that reduced his ticket's approval rating. He's not nearly popular enough to keep up the cult of personality that Trump has built. If he's not President by the next election, I doubt he'd win the primaries.