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They bought the fab time for that RAM 2-3 years ago. Apple is renowned for their foresight and preparation. We'll eventually see price increases from Apple's RA

They bought the fab time for that RAM 2-3 years ago. Apple is renowned for their foresight and preparation. We'll eventually see price increases from Apple's RAM upgrade, but we're not there yet.

scottyah 7mo ago
Commodity futures made sense to me at FedEx- they would pay money with a supplier for the option to buy gas/oil at X price at Y date in the future. It costs more than just agreeing to pay for it at that price in the future, but if deliveries went way down (or prices) it'd be less costly to "back out". I wonder if there's a fab time secondary market where Wall Street types are making millions off speculating fab time.
- sally_glance 7mo ago
  Hm I don't think a secondary market would work very well, using fab time productively requires lots of knowledge and collaboration with the provider. Compared to resources like grain or oil where it's basically "just come and pick it up when it's there".
- omcnoe 7mo ago
  There were/are DRAM futures markets based on this hypothesis, historically they never worked very well because DRAM prices (at least for the same size/speed) have moved downwards so consistently over decades. That is until <6 months ago.
- mlrtime 7mo ago
  1) Every airline buys futures for oil, this is (one of) the points of the futures market. 2) If there is a market to hedge/speculate, it will exist. Maybe not 'fab futures' but there is definitely one.
- 1-more 7mo ago
  Fun finance fact: "time on a machine that makes a precious commodity" is the first known futures contract, although in _Debt_ David Graeber posits that futures contracts are the original form of currency. The concrete example I'm thinking of is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thales_of_Miletus#Olive_presses https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thales_of_Miletus#Olive_presse...
stingraycharles 7mo ago
I thought they bought RAM externally, before soldering it on their chips? Regardless, point still stands, they probably ordered this several years ago.

They bought the fab time for that RAM 2-3 years ago. Apple is renowned for their foresight and preparation. We'll eventually see price increases from Apple's RAM upgrade, but we're not there yet.

scottyah 7mo ago

Commodity futures made sense to me at FedEx- they would pay money with a supplier for the option to buy gas/oil at X price at Y date in the future. It costs more than just agreeing to pay for it at that price in the future, but if deliveries went way down (or prices) it'd be less costly to "back out". I wonder if there's a fab time secondary market where Wall Street types are making millions off speculating fab time.

sally_glance 7mo ago
Hm I don't think a secondary market would work very well, using fab time productively requires lots of knowledge and collaboration with the provider. Compared to resources like grain or oil where it's basically "just come and pick it up when it's there".
omcnoe 7mo ago
There were/are DRAM futures markets based on this hypothesis, historically they never worked very well because DRAM prices (at least for the same size/speed) have moved downwards so consistently over decades. That is until <6 months ago.
mlrtime 7mo ago
1) Every airline buys futures for oil, this is (one of) the points of the futures market. 2) If there is a market to hedge/speculate, it will exist. Maybe not 'fab futures' but there is definitely one.
1-more 7mo ago
Fun finance fact: "time on a machine that makes a precious commodity" is the first known futures contract, although in _Debt_ David Graeber posits that futures contracts are the original form of currency. The concrete example I'm thinking of is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thales_of_Miletus#Olive_presses https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thales_of_Miletus#Olive_presse...

stingraycharles 7mo ago

I thought they bought RAM externally, before soldering it on their chips? Regardless, point still stands, they probably ordered this several years ago.