3 ms·

Who thought this? Be careful with your wild use of we here. I'm not part of your we. Opening betting markets has only one ultimate ending where everything is do

Who thought this? Be careful with your wild use of we here. I'm not part of your we. Opening betting markets has only one ultimate ending where everything is done for the betting.

butterbomb 8mo ago
[dead]
avaer 8mo ago
Prediction was certainly the pitch. I don't know how many people genuinely believed it, beyond the level required to extract a profit. It's hard to measure what anyone actually believes in the current social landscape, where nobody tells the truth. Maybe that's the real purpose of prediction markets.
- godelski 8mo ago
  I remember people claiming that it would capture the wisdom of the crowds[0]. Seemed silly as wisdom of the crowds depends on independent decisions. As soon as you reveal other people's guesses you bias the results. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd Edit: Actually, turns out "people claiming" includes Polymarket lol # What is Polymarket ... Our markets reflect accurate, unbiased, and real-time probabilities for the events that matter most to you. Markets seek truth. # How accurate are Polymarket odds? Research shows prediction markets are often more accurate than experts, polls, and pundits. .... Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join. This makes prediction markets the best source of real-time event probabilities. People use Polymarket for the most accurate odds, gaining the ability to make informed decisions about the future. What a load of BS. "Research shows"? Bull! https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364060-what-is-polymarket https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364060-what-is-pol...
sigwinch 8mo ago
Donald Jr, on the Polymarket board, might have tried that.
datsci_est_2015 8mo ago
Love this, thanks for providing a succinct sentiment that matches my feelings on the subject: > one ultimate ending where everything is done for the betting It really does seem that gambling has this sinister power to cannibalize whatever is being gambled upon, twisting it and transforming it into whatever maximizes the ability for market-makers to generate profit, sharps to extract alpha, and addicts to get their hit of dopamine.

Who thought this? Be careful with your wild use of we here. I'm not part of your we. Opening betting markets has only one ultimate ending where everything is done for the betting.

butterbomb 8mo ago

[dead]

avaer 8mo ago

Prediction was certainly the pitch. I don't know how many people genuinely believed it, beyond the level required to extract a profit. It's hard to measure what anyone actually believes in the current social landscape, where nobody tells the truth. Maybe that's the real purpose of prediction markets.

godelski 8mo ago
I remember people claiming that it would capture the wisdom of the crowds[0]. Seemed silly as wisdom of the crowds depends on independent decisions. As soon as you reveal other people's guesses you bias the results. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd Edit: Actually, turns out "people claiming" includes Polymarket lol # What is Polymarket ... Our markets reflect accurate, unbiased, and real-time probabilities for the events that matter most to you. Markets seek truth. # How accurate are Polymarket odds? Research shows prediction markets are often more accurate than experts, polls, and pundits. .... Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join. This makes prediction markets the best source of real-time event probabilities. People use Polymarket for the most accurate odds, gaining the ability to make informed decisions about the future. What a load of BS. "Research shows"? Bull! https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364060-what-is-polymarket https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364060-what-is-pol...

sigwinch 8mo ago

Donald Jr, on the Polymarket board, might have tried that.

datsci_est_2015 8mo ago

Love this, thanks for providing a succinct sentiment that matches my feelings on the subject: > one ultimate ending where everything is done for the betting It really does seem that gambling has this sinister power to cannibalize whatever is being gambled upon, twisting it and transforming it into whatever maximizes the ability for market-makers to generate profit, sharps to extract alpha, and addicts to get their hit of dopamine.