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These betting markets create a wild new perverse incentive to power. No need to get gifts from business interests. Just be in the room where it happens and extr

These betting markets create a wild new perverse incentive to power. No need to get gifts from business interests. Just be in the room where it happens and extract piles of cash from betting markets. These markets claimed to be useful tools for discovering truth. I'm not sure what being able to maybe predict a military strike a bit earlier provides to society, but I do know that creating a system for near-unlimited wealth extraction for those with power is a very bad thing.

hsuduebc2 8mo ago
This is such a ridiculous cope that these betting platforms provide any other value than entertainment. But they must sell themselves somehow I guess.
emtel 8mo ago
They don’t allow unlimited “extraction” of wealth. It is inherently limited by the need for people to take the other side of a trade. Importantly, people who either thought they had better information (and were sadly wrong) or people who were simply gambling. It’s not like prediction markets are taking money from orphanages.
iron_albatross 8mo ago
On the other hand, these are markets, right? Your ability to make profit is limited by the available liquidity. I wonder, if enough people get burned by insider trading, will liquidity dry up? At the same time, I suppose you don’t need that much volume to make a decent amount of money. And these platforms keep growing…
- rebuilder 8mo ago
  If you play at a casino, you’re statistically guarantee to lose money, edge cases not withstanding. Do you see casinos closing down because people stop playing?
jatari 8mo ago
No one is forcing anyone to bet on prediction markets. People use polymarket fully aware of the near certainty of insider trading.
- streetfighter64 8mo ago
  A sucker is born every minute, and I personally don't think it's great to create more effective channels for funneling money from suckers to corrupt politicians.

hsuduebc2 8mo ago

This is such a ridiculous cope that these betting platforms provide any other value than entertainment. But they must sell themselves somehow I guess.

emtel 8mo ago

They don’t allow unlimited “extraction” of wealth. It is inherently limited by the need for people to take the other side of a trade. Importantly, people who either thought they had better information (and were sadly wrong) or people who were simply gambling. It’s not like prediction markets are taking money from orphanages.

iron_albatross 8mo ago

On the other hand, these are markets, right? Your ability to make profit is limited by the available liquidity. I wonder, if enough people get burned by insider trading, will liquidity dry up? At the same time, I suppose you don’t need that much volume to make a decent amount of money. And these platforms keep growing…

rebuilder 8mo ago
If you play at a casino, you’re statistically guarantee to lose money, edge cases not withstanding. Do you see casinos closing down because people stop playing?

jatari 8mo ago

No one is forcing anyone to bet on prediction markets. People use polymarket fully aware of the near certainty of insider trading.

streetfighter64 8mo ago
A sucker is born every minute, and I personally don't think it's great to create more effective channels for funneling money from suckers to corrupt politicians.