4 ms·

Insider gambling has been common since the invention of gambling I think.

estearum 8mo ago
Most gambling "games" are quite a lot harder to acquire and use insider knowledge on though. People don't play in corrupt markets for very long.
- mountainriver 8mo ago
  Sports betting has been around forever, and it has been gamed forever. Gambling is often an addiction and some cheating doesn’t stop people from doing it
  - estearum 8mo ago
    To corrupt a Polymarket bet, there needs to be only one person with inside knowledge of a planned event's timing, outcome, duration, etc in order to destroy the other side. The vast majority of Polymarket-bettable events have at least a few dozen if not hundreds or thousands of people with prior knowledge. Polymarket is now a known market where they can (conveniently through crypto) participate. It is basically a billboard saying "do you have interesting inside knowledge? Come here and make some money!" To corrupt a sport bet, there needs to be an actual manipulation of events perpetrated by a very small, very closely watched and analyzed group of people (athletes or officials). In my view, it seems immediately obvious that as prediction markets become even more mainstream (and so the billboard effect gets stronger), Polymarket bets will have a significantly higher rate of corruption than sports bets.
    - mountainriver 8mo ago
      We'll see if people stop using it
- yndoendo 8mo ago
  The movie _Casino_ highlights how insider information was and is used to improve the house odds [0]. Information about a players wellbeing and their life goes a long way. Example, they would pay paper boys to talk to coaches to find out non public information. Such as if a player of the team is going through relationship problems. [0] https://www.themoviedb.org/movie/524-casino https://www.themoviedb.org/movie/524-casino
  - Barbing 8mo ago
    Scorsese and De Niro, looking forward to watching.
    - dylan604 8mo ago
      Was the ", again" left off, or is this going to be the first time you've seen the movie when you do watch it? I know new people are born every day, but Casino is one of those movies that I'd have expected any one old enough to be reading this board to have seen already. This is no judgment on anyone for not seeing it. Just a comment on my skewed view of the world I guess
      - queenkjuul 8mo ago
        I didn't see it for the first time until like 2020. Nobody in my family was in to mobster movies and my friends in my 20s never brought it up to watch with me It's a classic though for sure
      - Barbing 8mo ago
        Well I just saw Goodfellas the other day... :D yeah this one I missed, lucky 10k!
  - estearum 8mo ago
    All of which is significantly harder than putting up a gigantic billboard that says "Have insider knowledge on an important event? Place a bet here using crypto!" Every important event in the world has dozens if not hundreds of people "in the know" before it happens. Not everyone has paper boys, chatty coaches, or the time/energy required to connect all those dots. The entire flow insider information is reversed from "go out and look for it" to "invite it in anonymously"
- blazespin 8mo ago
  "People don't play in corrupt markets for very long." ... ahhh, it's not a bug with Polymarket - it's a feature.
  - estearum 8mo ago
    Someone has to take the other side of the bet. As these stories become more common and well-known, it'll degrade the market
    - blazespin 8mo ago
      All I've ever seen is it encouraging people and not discouraging them. The thrill of the easy money, right? Forget it jake, it's Polymarket.
      - estearum 8mo ago
        This stuff is turning me off of prediction markets and I'm actually a huge fan of them conceptually (and have bet on them myself for quite a while). As the billboard glow inviting insiders to trade gets brighter, the markets get less useful, less fun, less interesting, and obviously less rewarding.

Most gambling "games" are quite a lot harder to acquire and use insider knowledge on though. People don't play in corrupt markets for very long.

mountainriver 8mo ago
Sports betting has been around forever, and it has been gamed forever. Gambling is often an addiction and some cheating doesn’t stop people from doing it
- estearum 8mo ago
  To corrupt a Polymarket bet, there needs to be only one person with inside knowledge of a planned event's timing, outcome, duration, etc in order to destroy the other side. The vast majority of Polymarket-bettable events have at least a few dozen if not hundreds or thousands of people with prior knowledge. Polymarket is now a known market where they can (conveniently through crypto) participate. It is basically a billboard saying "do you have interesting inside knowledge? Come here and make some money!" To corrupt a sport bet, there needs to be an actual manipulation of events perpetrated by a very small, very closely watched and analyzed group of people (athletes or officials). In my view, it seems immediately obvious that as prediction markets become even more mainstream (and so the billboard effect gets stronger), Polymarket bets will have a significantly higher rate of corruption than sports bets.
  - mountainriver 8mo ago
    We'll see if people stop using it
yndoendo 8mo ago
The movie _Casino_ highlights how insider information was and is used to improve the house odds [0]. Information about a players wellbeing and their life goes a long way. Example, they would pay paper boys to talk to coaches to find out non public information. Such as if a player of the team is going through relationship problems. [0] https://www.themoviedb.org/movie/524-casino https://www.themoviedb.org/movie/524-casino
- Barbing 8mo ago
  Scorsese and De Niro, looking forward to watching.
  - dylan604 8mo ago
    Was the ", again" left off, or is this going to be the first time you've seen the movie when you do watch it? I know new people are born every day, but Casino is one of those movies that I'd have expected any one old enough to be reading this board to have seen already. This is no judgment on anyone for not seeing it. Just a comment on my skewed view of the world I guess
    - queenkjuul 8mo ago
      I didn't see it for the first time until like 2020. Nobody in my family was in to mobster movies and my friends in my 20s never brought it up to watch with me It's a classic though for sure
    - Barbing 8mo ago
      Well I just saw Goodfellas the other day... :D yeah this one I missed, lucky 10k!
- estearum 8mo ago
  All of which is significantly harder than putting up a gigantic billboard that says "Have insider knowledge on an important event? Place a bet here using crypto!" Every important event in the world has dozens if not hundreds of people "in the know" before it happens. Not everyone has paper boys, chatty coaches, or the time/energy required to connect all those dots. The entire flow insider information is reversed from "go out and look for it" to "invite it in anonymously"
blazespin 8mo ago
"People don't play in corrupt markets for very long." ... ahhh, it's not a bug with Polymarket - it's a feature.
- estearum 8mo ago
  Someone has to take the other side of the bet. As these stories become more common and well-known, it'll degrade the market
  - blazespin 8mo ago
    All I've ever seen is it encouraging people and not discouraging them. The thrill of the easy money, right? Forget it jake, it's Polymarket.
    - estearum 8mo ago
      This stuff is turning me off of prediction markets and I'm actually a huge fan of them conceptually (and have bet on them myself for quite a while). As the billboard glow inviting insiders to trade gets brighter, the markets get less useful, less fun, less interesting, and obviously less rewarding.