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I don't think they can accomplish their goal even with that. I will be very surprised by regime change.

dmix 7mo ago
Iran was likely going to do that themselves by the massive inflation they caused through reckless financial policies such as Venezuelan style price controls. Russia is managed to weather sanctions decently, Iran's economic leadership is far more incompetent despite being a petrol state. Even in Tehran they can't get enough water because of the failure of infrastructure and planning (despite plenty of money being available for certain failed regional military projects). There was a study showing almost every revolution happened not because of ideology but over the price of bread.
- guerrilla 7mo ago
  > There was a study showing almost every revolution happened not because of ideology but over the price of bread. His name was Marx. ;) Yeah. We'll see. Under what conditions will you consider yourself right or wrong? My prediction is after killing a few more heads of state, disabling some more striking capability that they'll back off under pressure from the Arab states. Trump will declare it as a victory regardless of what happens and everyone will forget about it. Iran will eventually rebuild itself as it just did, but this time it will take longer (Trump even said that himself, contradicting himself earlier).
  - andrewflnr 7mo ago
    Even if Trump doesn't care, Israel is very motivated to make regime change happen. They want to be permanently rid of Iran's nuclear threat, its funding of terrorist groups, all of it. Honestly I think Trump or at least his administration is on a similar page, and if not the Israelis can clearly be pretty persuasive. No, my worry is whether it will be a regime change that benefits the Iranian people or some kind of sick puppet state. But of course: > Trump will declare it as a victory regardless of what happens ...This goes without saying. Edit: worth noting the Arab states tend to hate Iran as well, and Iran has already sprinkled some ballistic missiles on them just in this war. They're not going to speak up for Iran unless they think the escalation is getting too dangerous for themselves.
    - guerrilla 7mo ago
      > Even if Trump doesn't care, Israel is very motivated to make regime change happen. It doesn't matter. There are zero cases in history of successful regime change by air only. Iran, of all countries, has an extremely robust succession plan and at a last resort the IRGC itself will take over. > Iran has already sprinkled some ballistic missiles on them just in this war I can see you're not following this too seriously. You didn't give objective criteria for how to judge whether you're right or wrong yet.
      - andrewflnr 7mo ago
        You should follow more seriously which usernames you're talking to. But as far as objective criteria, if a regime change happens I don't expect it to be subtle or debatable. Seeing the IRGC disbanded would be a pretty solid signal, though. Obviously it's not going to be done 100% from the air. The Iranian people will have to play a big role. I just hope they manage to seize initiative from Trump and Netanyahu as far as how their government is run. I do note that we've strayed a bit from the thesis of "Iran is so powerful Israel and the US have to gang up on it". :D
        guerrilla 7mo ago
        > You should follow more seriously which usernames you're talking to. Eh, shit happens.
        andrewflnr 7mo ago
        Sure. Anyway, did you have a factual critique of my statement about Iran throwing ballistic missiles around the Middle East, or did you just find my tone insufficiently serious?

dmix 7mo ago

Iran was likely going to do that themselves by the massive inflation they caused through reckless financial policies such as Venezuelan style price controls. Russia is managed to weather sanctions decently, Iran's economic leadership is far more incompetent despite being a petrol state. Even in Tehran they can't get enough water because of the failure of infrastructure and planning (despite plenty of money being available for certain failed regional military projects). There was a study showing almost every revolution happened not because of ideology but over the price of bread.

guerrilla 7mo ago
> There was a study showing almost every revolution happened not because of ideology but over the price of bread. His name was Marx. ;) Yeah. We'll see. Under what conditions will you consider yourself right or wrong? My prediction is after killing a few more heads of state, disabling some more striking capability that they'll back off under pressure from the Arab states. Trump will declare it as a victory regardless of what happens and everyone will forget about it. Iran will eventually rebuild itself as it just did, but this time it will take longer (Trump even said that himself, contradicting himself earlier).
- andrewflnr 7mo ago
  Even if Trump doesn't care, Israel is very motivated to make regime change happen. They want to be permanently rid of Iran's nuclear threat, its funding of terrorist groups, all of it. Honestly I think Trump or at least his administration is on a similar page, and if not the Israelis can clearly be pretty persuasive. No, my worry is whether it will be a regime change that benefits the Iranian people or some kind of sick puppet state. But of course: > Trump will declare it as a victory regardless of what happens ...This goes without saying. Edit: worth noting the Arab states tend to hate Iran as well, and Iran has already sprinkled some ballistic missiles on them just in this war. They're not going to speak up for Iran unless they think the escalation is getting too dangerous for themselves.
  - guerrilla 7mo ago
    > Even if Trump doesn't care, Israel is very motivated to make regime change happen. It doesn't matter. There are zero cases in history of successful regime change by air only. Iran, of all countries, has an extremely robust succession plan and at a last resort the IRGC itself will take over. > Iran has already sprinkled some ballistic missiles on them just in this war I can see you're not following this too seriously. You didn't give objective criteria for how to judge whether you're right or wrong yet.
    - andrewflnr 7mo ago
      You should follow more seriously which usernames you're talking to. But as far as objective criteria, if a regime change happens I don't expect it to be subtle or debatable. Seeing the IRGC disbanded would be a pretty solid signal, though. Obviously it's not going to be done 100% from the air. The Iranian people will have to play a big role. I just hope they manage to seize initiative from Trump and Netanyahu as far as how their government is run. I do note that we've strayed a bit from the thesis of "Iran is so powerful Israel and the US have to gang up on it". :D
      - guerrilla 7mo ago
        > You should follow more seriously which usernames you're talking to. Eh, shit happens.
        andrewflnr 7mo ago
        Sure. Anyway, did you have a factual critique of my statement about Iran throwing ballistic missiles around the Middle East, or did you just find my tone insufficiently serious?