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The point is preventing another North Korea style nuclear blackmail state. Iran has negotiated like no one will ever attack it, and that was a correct assumpti

by breppp 8mo ago

The point is preventing another North Korea style nuclear blackmail state. Iran has negotiated like no one will ever attack it, and that was a correct assumption for decades However, due to Iran's overly aggressive use of questionably rational proxies, Hamas has dragged it into a regional conflict where it lost most of its proxies power. After the last war, it also is no longer a threshold state, so the only leverage they had left was ballistic missiles, which were also handled quite reasonably by Israeli air defense. In this situation it is a fair request by the US to sign a nuclear deal that heavily restricts Iran's ability to enrich as well as ICBM, trigger with existing uranium stockpiles removed. As Iran due to ideological reasons refused, and IMO had miscalculated this will be a win-win, as losing will quell the protests, the only thing really left is the metaphorical stick

ivraatiems 8mo ago
> In this situation it is a fair request by the US to sign a nuclear deal that heavily restricts Iran's ability to enrich, and as Iran due to ideological reasons refused, and IMO miscalculated this will be a win-win, as losing will quell the protests, the only thing really left is the metaphorical stick Didn't we have one of those a few years ago? I wonder what happened to it /s Seriously, though: how can Iran both be so powerful we must avoid it becoming a blackmail state, and so weak and feckless it's not a threat to anyone? And didn't we already attack them to stop them from getting nuclear capabilities?
- breppp 8mo ago
  > Didn't we have one of those a few years ago? I wonder what happened to it /s Yes, although it had merit it was far worse than what can be signed now, especially the sunset clause was problematic > Seriously, though: how can Iran both be so powerful we must avoid it becoming a blackmail state, and so weak and feckless it's not a threat to anyone? that's the nature of nuclear weapons, your conventional force can be abysmal (pretty much NK situation vs US) and yet you can create epic destruction > And didn't we already attack them to stop them from getting nuclear capabilities? Yes, the thing here is the long term goal of signing a deal, whose main goal is removing the existing highly enriched uranium from Iran and restricting their ability to redevelop nuclear capabilities. Essentially this is the part where "Diplomacy is the continuation of war by other means" (to highly paraphrase), because the alternative to a deal is maintenance attacks such as these every two years
- deleted 8mo ago
  [deleted]
- lucketone 8mo ago
  [flagged]
- testdelacc1 8mo ago
  The contradiction is that they’re weak at this minute - militarily and economically and politically. But they won’t be this weak in the future. - Military - their regional proxies destroyed, missile and drone stocks low, provably weak air defences. - Economically - the currency is worthless, extreme inflation for seven years and hyper inflation for a few months, the economy is currently producing nothing due to unrest, they have a massive water shortage of their own making. They have no goods worth exporting. Their oil is sanctioned, meaning only China will buy from them and at a steep discount. And oil is extremely cheap at this minute. - Politically - they have no friends willing to bail them out. Russia has no money to spare. China doesn’t care about anyone outside of China. North Korea is even poorer. All sections within Iranian society detest the mullahs running the government. They’re hanging on by killing tens of thousands of protestors. Trump bets that Iran’s leaders are at their weakest since their war with Saddam ended in 1988. Meaning now is the best time to negotiate a deal where they hand over their fissile material and uranium enrichment equipment. In return they could get a heavy water reactor(s) that produces energy but no fissile material. If he lets this opportunity slip Iran could fix all of their many problems in a year or three. Manufacture more missiles and drones. Build up their proxies once more. Maybe the price of oil recovers. Russia’s war ends and they aid Iran best they can. The economy recovers and the Iranian people stop trying to overthrow the government. Maybe a conflict starts elsewhere that draws America’s full attention. Will Trump get that deal? Probably not. That fissile material is the only leverage the mullahs have. If they give it up they’ll be toppled like the other dictators who gave up their weapons programs - Gaddafi and Saddam. But if you don’t ask you don’t get, right?
  - RiverStone 8mo ago
    Very good analysis. I think most of the world doesn’t quite understand how bad the currency crisis is right now in Iran It was one of the primary triggers for the protests. People are very upset about the economy and willing to protest and die for it.
nielsbot 8mo ago
Does Iran not have the same rights of self-defense and sovereignty as the US and Israel? > The point is preventing another North Korea style nuclear blackmail state The US and Israel are currently nuclear blackmail states. The rational move for Iran to prevent itself from being bullied is to have nukes like North Korea. > In this situation it is a fair request by the US Fair if you're the US, sure.
- iknowstuff 8mo ago
  190 countries signed the non proliferation treaty for a very good reason, so no they don’t have the right to it in any sense of the word on the international stage. Especially not when they’re mass murdering protestors and funding islamic extremism left and right
  - blurbleblurble 8mo ago
    Okay so neither then does Israel yet here we are a country with illicit nuclear weapons that murdered scores of thousands of civilians has what standing to do what now?
    - azernik 8mo ago
      Israel never signed the NPT, like India and Pakistan.
      - blurbleblurble 8mo ago
        Oh wow cool even more unhinged than I realized
    - iknowstuff 8mo ago
      Opposition to Iran’s regime does not imply support for Israel’s
  - locallost 8mo ago
    The US is also murdering protesters and funding Christian extremists. So what now?
CapricornNoble 8mo ago
Why do you call the concept a "North Korea style nuclear blackmail state" and not an "Israel style nuclear blackmail state"?
- testdelacc1 8mo ago
  Has Israel even officially confirmed they have nukes? And who have they blackmailed with the nukes?
  - s5300 8mo ago
    [dead]
  - CapricornNoble 8mo ago
    > Has Israel even officially confirmed they have nukes? No. There's a number of reasons for this. #1 is Israel's policy of "strategic ambiguity" and #2 is that it might be illegal to even mention it in Israel. Israel prosecuted a whistleblower nuclear scientist for leaking state secrets, for example. > And who have they blackmailed with the nukes? The US, for one: "Similarly, in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, IDF was again outnumbered by the invading Arab armies. Then Israeli PM Golda Meir authorized a nuclear alert and ordered that nuclear warheads be readied for launch from missiles and aircraft. The Israeli ambassador to the US, Simcha Dinitz, met with Henry Kissinger to inform President Nixon of “Very serious conclusions” if the US did not airlift arms supplies to the IDF. Nixon complied with this demand due to the threat of the use of nuclear forces. This was the first successful use of the Samson option as a threat and tantamount to nuclear blackmail." from: https://thesvi.org/deconstructing-israels-samson-option/ https://thesvi.org/deconstructing-israels-samson-option/ I also recommend: https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/wait-why-is-israel-allowed-to-have-nukes https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/wait-why-is-israel-allow... The Samson Option enables Israel to blackmail the entire Middle East, and do so silently. Turkey or Egypt can't afford for Hezbollah to overrun Israel, because Ankara and Cairo might get nuked, even if they had nothing to do with contributing to Israel's existential crisis. It basically forces the whole neighborhood to keep each other in check out of sheer self-preservation. Credit given where credit due, it's a smart approach on Israel's part.
watwut 8mo ago
I dont see how it is fair from USA to demand others dont have nukes. Ukraine made mistake of trusting ISA and giving them away and now USA basically support Russia in their invasion. Iran is a bad guy state ... but the "fair" atgunent hwre dont apply.
locallost 8mo ago
The biggest blackmail rogue state right now is the US.
- deleted 8mo ago
  [deleted]
socraticnoise 8mo ago
[flagged]
concinds 8mo ago
This comment is so wrong. Trump's strikes won't "prevent" anything, it's domestic posturing to look tough. You cannot bomb your way into regime change. > After the last war, it also is no longer a threshold state That's also wrong. Trump claimed Iran's enrichment capabilities were totally destroyed, but they weren't. > In this situation it is a fair request by the US to sign a nuclear deal America already had a good deal. Trump got rid of it.
Hikikomori 8mo ago
>Iran has negotiated like no one will ever attack it, and that was a correct assumption for decades Iran had a signed agreement, trump cancelled it. Israel literally killed Irans negotiators just a few months ago. What is this nuclear level ignorance.
epsters 8mo ago
> The point is preventing another North Korea style nuclear blackmail state. North Korea aspires be to be a Israel-style nuclear blackmail state.
mmustapic 8mo ago
Iran's nuclear program cannot produce usable nuclear weapons just with enriched uranium, so there's no risk at all for them to blackmail anybody.
jopsen 8mo ago
> The point is preventing another North Korea style nuclear blackmail state. You can bomb the leadership all day long. Without boots on the ground the regime will probably continue. I don't see how this stops Iran from building nukes. Sure they may have a temporary set back. But do you think this will change their minds? Can they even negotiate a resolution with the US. Given that the current administration won't honor its own agreements. Did Trump issue an ultimatum here? And demand something?

by breppp 8mo ago

ivraatiems 8mo ago

> In this situation it is a fair request by the US to sign a nuclear deal that heavily restricts Iran's ability to enrich, and as Iran due to ideological reasons refused, and IMO miscalculated this will be a win-win, as losing will quell the protests, the only thing really left is the metaphorical stick Didn't we have one of those a few years ago? I wonder what happened to it /s Seriously, though: how can Iran both be so powerful we must avoid it becoming a blackmail state, and so weak and feckless it's not a threat to anyone? And didn't we already attack them to stop them from getting nuclear capabilities?

breppp 8mo ago
> Didn't we have one of those a few years ago? I wonder what happened to it /s Yes, although it had merit it was far worse than what can be signed now, especially the sunset clause was problematic > Seriously, though: how can Iran both be so powerful we must avoid it becoming a blackmail state, and so weak and feckless it's not a threat to anyone? that's the nature of nuclear weapons, your conventional force can be abysmal (pretty much NK situation vs US) and yet you can create epic destruction > And didn't we already attack them to stop them from getting nuclear capabilities? Yes, the thing here is the long term goal of signing a deal, whose main goal is removing the existing highly enriched uranium from Iran and restricting their ability to redevelop nuclear capabilities. Essentially this is the part where "Diplomacy is the continuation of war by other means" (to highly paraphrase), because the alternative to a deal is maintenance attacks such as these every two years
deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]
lucketone 8mo ago
[flagged]
testdelacc1 8mo ago
The contradiction is that they’re weak at this minute - militarily and economically and politically. But they won’t be this weak in the future. - Military - their regional proxies destroyed, missile and drone stocks low, provably weak air defences. - Economically - the currency is worthless, extreme inflation for seven years and hyper inflation for a few months, the economy is currently producing nothing due to unrest, they have a massive water shortage of their own making. They have no goods worth exporting. Their oil is sanctioned, meaning only China will buy from them and at a steep discount. And oil is extremely cheap at this minute. - Politically - they have no friends willing to bail them out. Russia has no money to spare. China doesn’t care about anyone outside of China. North Korea is even poorer. All sections within Iranian society detest the mullahs running the government. They’re hanging on by killing tens of thousands of protestors. Trump bets that Iran’s leaders are at their weakest since their war with Saddam ended in 1988. Meaning now is the best time to negotiate a deal where they hand over their fissile material and uranium enrichment equipment. In return they could get a heavy water reactor(s) that produces energy but no fissile material. If he lets this opportunity slip Iran could fix all of their many problems in a year or three. Manufacture more missiles and drones. Build up their proxies once more. Maybe the price of oil recovers. Russia’s war ends and they aid Iran best they can. The economy recovers and the Iranian people stop trying to overthrow the government. Maybe a conflict starts elsewhere that draws America’s full attention. Will Trump get that deal? Probably not. That fissile material is the only leverage the mullahs have. If they give it up they’ll be toppled like the other dictators who gave up their weapons programs - Gaddafi and Saddam. But if you don’t ask you don’t get, right?
- RiverStone 8mo ago
  Very good analysis. I think most of the world doesn’t quite understand how bad the currency crisis is right now in Iran It was one of the primary triggers for the protests. People are very upset about the economy and willing to protest and die for it.

nielsbot 8mo ago

Does Iran not have the same rights of self-defense and sovereignty as the US and Israel? > The point is preventing another North Korea style nuclear blackmail state The US and Israel are currently nuclear blackmail states. The rational move for Iran to prevent itself from being bullied is to have nukes like North Korea. > In this situation it is a fair request by the US Fair if you're the US, sure.

iknowstuff 8mo ago
190 countries signed the non proliferation treaty for a very good reason, so no they don’t have the right to it in any sense of the word on the international stage. Especially not when they’re mass murdering protestors and funding islamic extremism left and right
- blurbleblurble 8mo ago
  Okay so neither then does Israel yet here we are a country with illicit nuclear weapons that murdered scores of thousands of civilians has what standing to do what now?
  - azernik 8mo ago
    Israel never signed the NPT, like India and Pakistan.
    - blurbleblurble 8mo ago
      Oh wow cool even more unhinged than I realized
  - iknowstuff 8mo ago
    Opposition to Iran’s regime does not imply support for Israel’s
- locallost 8mo ago
  The US is also murdering protesters and funding Christian extremists. So what now?

CapricornNoble 8mo ago

Why do you call the concept a "North Korea style nuclear blackmail state" and not an "Israel style nuclear blackmail state"?

testdelacc1 8mo ago
Has Israel even officially confirmed they have nukes? And who have they blackmailed with the nukes?
- s5300 8mo ago
  [dead]
- CapricornNoble 8mo ago
  > Has Israel even officially confirmed they have nukes? No. There's a number of reasons for this. #1 is Israel's policy of "strategic ambiguity" and #2 is that it might be illegal to even mention it in Israel. Israel prosecuted a whistleblower nuclear scientist for leaking state secrets, for example. > And who have they blackmailed with the nukes? The US, for one: "Similarly, in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, IDF was again outnumbered by the invading Arab armies. Then Israeli PM Golda Meir authorized a nuclear alert and ordered that nuclear warheads be readied for launch from missiles and aircraft. The Israeli ambassador to the US, Simcha Dinitz, met with Henry Kissinger to inform President Nixon of “Very serious conclusions” if the US did not airlift arms supplies to the IDF. Nixon complied with this demand due to the threat of the use of nuclear forces. This was the first successful use of the Samson option as a threat and tantamount to nuclear blackmail." from: https://thesvi.org/deconstructing-israels-samson-option/ https://thesvi.org/deconstructing-israels-samson-option/ I also recommend: https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/wait-why-is-israel-allowed-to-have-nukes https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/wait-why-is-israel-allow... The Samson Option enables Israel to blackmail the entire Middle East, and do so silently. Turkey or Egypt can't afford for Hezbollah to overrun Israel, because Ankara and Cairo might get nuked, even if they had nothing to do with contributing to Israel's existential crisis. It basically forces the whole neighborhood to keep each other in check out of sheer self-preservation. Credit given where credit due, it's a smart approach on Israel's part.

watwut 8mo ago

I dont see how it is fair from USA to demand others dont have nukes. Ukraine made mistake of trusting ISA and giving them away and now USA basically support Russia in their invasion. Iran is a bad guy state ... but the "fair" atgunent hwre dont apply.

locallost 8mo ago

The biggest blackmail rogue state right now is the US.

deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]

socraticnoise 8mo ago

[flagged]

concinds 8mo ago

This comment is so wrong. Trump's strikes won't "prevent" anything, it's domestic posturing to look tough. You cannot bomb your way into regime change. > After the last war, it also is no longer a threshold state That's also wrong. Trump claimed Iran's enrichment capabilities were totally destroyed, but they weren't. > In this situation it is a fair request by the US to sign a nuclear deal America already had a good deal. Trump got rid of it.

Hikikomori 8mo ago

>Iran has negotiated like no one will ever attack it, and that was a correct assumption for decades Iran had a signed agreement, trump cancelled it. Israel literally killed Irans negotiators just a few months ago. What is this nuclear level ignorance.

epsters 8mo ago

> The point is preventing another North Korea style nuclear blackmail state. North Korea aspires be to be a Israel-style nuclear blackmail state.

mmustapic 8mo ago

Iran's nuclear program cannot produce usable nuclear weapons just with enriched uranium, so there's no risk at all for them to blackmail anybody.

jopsen 8mo ago

> The point is preventing another North Korea style nuclear blackmail state. You can bomb the leadership all day long. Without boots on the ground the regime will probably continue. I don't see how this stops Iran from building nukes. Sure they may have a temporary set back. But do you think this will change their minds? Can they even negotiate a resolution with the US. Given that the current administration won't honor its own agreements. Did Trump issue an ultimatum here? And demand something?