4 ms·
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
by sowbug 8mo ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
- MichaelZuo 7mo agoAre you confusing me with someone else’s comment? This doesn’t address my question on what you believe.
- sowbug 7mo agoRead the beetle example in that article. It's exactly on point. You believe Anthropic is a rare subspecies of beetle (an "unsavory" company) based on a certain pattern on its back (certain NDA-related behavior). I and several others here have noted that lots of companies have that pattern on their backs. Which means that you are basing your conclusion on weak evidence. If you use Bayes Theorem to calculate the actual probability, you'll find that "[trying] to hide the existence of secret non-disparagement agreements" barely moves the needle at all. Does it move the needle? Sure. But much less than you think.
- MichaelZuo 7mo agoEven if it only moved the needle a tiny amount… that’s still a non-zero amount? And therefore a non-zero amount of relevance?
- sowbug 7mo agoYour original point carries an infinitesimal amount of weight. Yes, you win.
- MichaelZuo 7mo agoWin what? You haven’t even advanced a coherent argument yet… hence the original reply.