5 ms·
No no, an intelligent person looking at a crude steam engine could see what potential it has. This is not hindsight. It is generating large amount of power on
by qsera 8mo ago
No no, an intelligent person looking at a crude steam engine could see what potential it has. This is not hindsight.
It is generating large amount of power on demand.
From that one can imagine what it could do. But more importantly in this context, one could also imagine what it could NEVER do. If someone say "Oh, the mighty steam engine! It lets us print 100x more books than we were doing before. Who knows, may be some day it will even start writing new books!"
And at that point, if you understand anything about the steam engine, or writing, you can call bluff. But if you don't understand what the steam engine is doing, and if you don't actually know what it takes to come up with a story, one could take a look at the engine printing the books, and blunder into the conclusion that it printing an entirely new book is only a question of time.
So in short, it is not "hate", just the acknowledgement about what it is not.
- usrnm 8mo ago> No no, an intelligent person looking at a crude steam engine could see what potential it has. This is not hindsight Steam engines were known since the first century, at the vert least: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeolipile https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeolipile It does take a lot of imagination and creativity to come up with new and better ways to use an already existing idea. We're currently just scratching the surface of what LLMs are going to do for us
- qsera 8mo agoYea, sure. Better search could be used in ways that we can't think of right now..
- usrnm 8mo agoI already use AI tools for more things than just "better search". Like, today. For work.
- qsera 8mo agoYes, part of some kinds of work is actually just a glorified looking-up aka search. For example, even something like "I want python code to do X" could get exact hit in a stack overflow answer using regular internet "search" Just wrote about it here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47178461 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47178461
- danlitt 8mo agoFrom your exact link, > The aeolipile is considered to be the first recorded steam engine or reaction steam turbine, but it is neither a practical source of power nor a direct predecessor of the type of steam engine invented during the Industrial Revolution.
- usrnm 8mo agoWhich is the exact point I was trying to make? It's still a steam engine, the basic idea is there and, yet, nobody saw its huge potential
- qsera 8mo agohttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47179154 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47179154
- direwolf20 8mo agoThe ancient Greeks surely would have realised that an aeolipile could be used as a source of power, if they'd had abundant combustible fuel, a need for rotary motion, and no better source of it. Newcomen engines are mere curiosities today, because we have better sources of power (better engines). In the past, they had better sources of power too (donkeys, wind, water, or human slaves). Newcomen engines, like all technologies, are only viable in certain economic environments. In all others they are curiosities.
- generallyjosh 8mo agoThere are lots of intelligent people looking at AI and imagining its potential Are you just saying that you're more intelligent than them? You can see clearly, where all the steam engine technicians can't?
- qsera 8mo agoWhat are they saying that contradicts with something I said?
- generallyjosh 8mo agoWell, you said: The potential of the current crop of LLM/AIs will stop at being a very powerful tool to search large volumes of text using free-form questions. I do think that pretty clearly contradicts with what a lot of people who make/use LLM models are saying haha
- Windchaser 8mo agoEarly steam engines did not produce large amounts of power on demand, though. They produced small amounts of power, were a hassle to fuel and maintain, and broke often. It was reasonable that the engineers of the 1700s said "well, until someone improves on this, it's not worth using".. .. which is not far off from what people said about ChatGPT in 2022. I don't know how long it'll take for AI to be as broadly impactful as the steam engine was, but.. it's definitely coming. I expect the world to look radically different in 50 years.