3 ms·

> The IDC article says that DRAM prices are not expected to come down again Sure thing. I'd take a look at IDC & similar firms' forecasting history before worr

> The IDC article says that DRAM prices are not expected to come down again Sure thing. I'd take a look at IDC & similar firms' forecasting history before worrying too much about what they say. There is an AI boom right now. There will be a consolidation cycle at some point. When that happens half the players, if not more, will disappear. The huge hardware budgets will go with them. We also can't be certain that the DRAM makers aren't capitalizing on this opportunity because they can. Remember: all of them are convicted monopolists. As in actual prison time convicted. And fined. And lost civil lawsuits. Multiple times. I just can't see AI paying enough of a premium on HBM to justify the DRAM spikes. Frankly I can't see the volume either. Wafer starts on DRAM are dramatically bigger than you are probably imagining. DRAM is in practically everything these days. AI servers is but a drop in the bucket. 10% of the market? Yeah right, if its 4% I'd be shocked. And you are telling me a shift of 4% of wafers to HBM is driving these prices and shortages? I humbly suggest if you look at the numbers something smells funny. Disclaimer: none of us has access to the actual data, a lot of it is inferred by industry players. Some are well connected and usually accurate but that is not evidence. Therefore it is possible this is a genuine market action and nothing nefarious is going on.

zozbot234 8mo ago
HBM is not normal memory. It uses a lot more area per bit and has lower yield too. So a Gb of baseline DRAM and a Gb of HBM are very different measurements, the latter equates to so much more in terms of volume.
- xenadu02 7mo ago
  True which is why I posted the caveat. It is possible that the prices we are seeing are legitimate market dynamics. I just think given past history we should be skeptical of that. It smells like market manipulation to me. Of course given the dynamics of business these days and how financialized these companies are it wouldn't surprise me if this is also just a result of refusal to invest capex in expansion. So long as the other 2-5 players in the market do the same there's no benefit to expanding or lowering prices. We all just sit on our hands and let market forces raise prices (and profit) for us. Whatever the case it seems capitalism has gone off the rails in multiple ways.

zozbot234 8mo ago

HBM is not normal memory. It uses a lot more area per bit and has lower yield too. So a Gb of baseline DRAM and a Gb of HBM are very different measurements, the latter equates to so much more in terms of volume.

xenadu02 7mo ago
True which is why I posted the caveat. It is possible that the prices we are seeing are legitimate market dynamics. I just think given past history we should be skeptical of that. It smells like market manipulation to me. Of course given the dynamics of business these days and how financialized these companies are it wouldn't surprise me if this is also just a result of refusal to invest capex in expansion. So long as the other 2-5 players in the market do the same there's no benefit to expanding or lowering prices. We all just sit on our hands and let market forces raise prices (and profit) for us. Whatever the case it seems capitalism has gone off the rails in multiple ways.