7 ms·

I'd prefer companies not help the military develop the most powerful weapons possible given we're in the age of WMDs, have already had two devastating world war

I'd prefer companies not help the military develop the most powerful weapons possible given we're in the age of WMDs, have already had two devastating world wars and a nuclear arms race that puts humanity under permanent risk.

lambdaphagy 8mo ago
There is an extremely straightforward argument that WMDs are precisely what prevented the outbreak of direct warfare between major powers in the latter 20th. (Note that WWI by itself wasn’t sufficient to prevent WWII!) You can take issue with that argument if you want but it’s unconvincing not to address it.
- idiotsecant 8mo ago
  That's a little bit like saying the bullet in the gun prevented someone getting shot while playing Russian Roulette. We pulled back that hammer several times, and it's purely happenstance that it didn't go off. MAD has that acronym for a reason.
  - lambdaphagy 8mo ago
    I agree that the risk of an accidental strike was a huge problem with the theory of nuclear deterrence, but the question is: compared to what? In expectation or even in a 1st percentile scenario, was MAD worse than a world where the USSR is a unilateral nuclear power? For that matter, what would it have taken to get a stronger SALT treaty sooner? I think you need to have people thinking through this stuff at a nuts-and-bolts level if you want to avoid getting dominated by a slightly less nice adversary, and so too with AI. Does a unilateral guarantee not to build autonomous killbots actually make anyone safer if China makes no such promise, or does that perversely put us at more risk? I’d love to know that the “no killbots, come what may” strategy is sound, but it’s not clear that that’s a stable equilibrium.
    - tw1984 8mo ago
      > Does a unilateral guarantee not to build autonomous killbots actually make anyone safer if China makes no such promise, or does that perversely put us at more risk? China considers all lethal autonomous weapons "unacceptable", calling all countries to ban it. Countries like the US and India refuse to back such proposals. See China's official stands on this matter below. https://documents.unoda.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Working-Paper-of-the-Peoples-Republic-of-China-on-Lethal-Autonomous-Weapons-Systems%EF%BC%88English%EF%BC%89.pdf https://documents.unoda.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Worki... I totally understand that you got brainwashed by the media, but hey you appearantly have internet access, why can't you just do a little bit research of your own before posting nonsense using imagination as your source of information?
      - esseph 8mo ago
        I don't know where you got this info about China, but it's wrong. AI in a warfare context is the new Manhattan Project. All the world powers are in a race to it. https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/china-trains-ai-controlled-weapons-with-learning-from-hawks-coyotes/ https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/china-trains-ai-controll... https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/machines-in-the-alleyways-chinas-bet-on-autonomous-urban-warfare/ https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/machines-in-the-alleyways-ch... https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ai-weapons-in-chinas-military-innovation/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ai-weapons-in-chinas-mili... https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/how-china-is-using-ai-for-warfare/ https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/how-china-is-using-ai-fo...
      - lambdaphagy 8mo ago
        China does not consider all lethal autonomous weapons system "unacceptable" even for use, let alone to develop, and the document you linked explains this very clearly. Here's what the document actually says, formatted slightly for clarity: ``` Basic characteristics of Unacceptable Autonomous Weapons Systems should include but not limited to the following: - Firstly, lethality, meaning sufficient lethal payload (charge) and means. - Secondly, autonomy, meaning absence of human intervention and control during the entire process of executing a task. - Thirdly, impossibility for termination, meaning that once started, there is no way to terminate the operation. - Fourthly, indiscriminate killing, meaning that the device will execute the mission of killing and maiming regardless of conditions, scenarios and targets. - Fifthly, evolution, meaning that through interaction with the environment, the device can learn autonomously, expand its functions and capabilities in a degree exceeding human expectations. Autonomous weapons systems with all of the five characteristics clearly have anti-human characteristics and significant humanitarian risks, and the international community could consider following the example of the Protocol on Blinding Laser Weapons and work to reach a legal instrument to prohibit such weapons systems. ``` Charitably, you might say that China is worried about a nightmare scenario. Less charitably, you might say that the definition of an unacceptable weapon system is so tight that it does not describe anything that anyone would ever build, or would want to build. This posture would allow China to adopt the international posture of seeming to oppose autonomous weapons without actually de facto constraining themselves at all. This, by contrast, is what China considers acceptable: ``` Acceptable Autonomous Weapons Systems could have a high degree of autonomy, but are always under human control. It means they can be used in a secure, credible, reliable and manageable manner, can be suspended by human beings at any time and comply with basic principles of international humanitarian law in military operations, such as distinction, proportionality and precaution. ``` So as long as the system has a killswitch (something that afaik absolutely no one is proposing to dispense with?), it's Acceptable. Meanwhile, it would certainly seem that China's defense research universities are interested in developing this tech: https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/machines-in-the-alleyways-chinas-bet-on-autonomous-urban-warfare https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/machines-in-the-alleyways-ch.... So, I did a bit of research with my internet access-- how do my findings square with your impressions?
- horacemorace 8mo ago
  There’s also an extremely straightforward argument that if the current crop of authoritarian dictatorial players in power now had been then that the outcome of the latter 20th would have been much different.
  - lambdaphagy 8mo ago
    The guy who authorized the Manhattan project: - had four [!] terms, a move so anomalous it was subsequently patched by constitutional amendment - threatened court-packing until SCOTUS backed down and stated rubber-stamping his agenda - ruled entire industries by emergency decree in a way that contemporaries on the left and right compared to Mussolini - interned 120k people without due process, on the basis of ethnicity - turned a national party into a personal patronage system - threatened to override the legislature if it didn’t start passing laws he liked Not even saying any of this is even good or bad, clearly in the official history it was retroactively justified by victory in WWII. But it’s a bit rich to say that the bomb wasn’t developed under authoritarian conditions.
    - lupire 8mo ago
      It is a huge stretch to label a popular and democratically elected amd reelected Presidentnand Congress "authoritarian".
  - sethammons 8mo ago
    If my grandma had wheels she'd be a bicycle
- estearum 8mo ago
  Great, now go ahead and prove that AI also reaches strategic equilibrium. This was pretty much self-evident with nuclear weapons so should probably be self-evident for AI too, if it were true.
- timtas 8mo ago
  Can anyone see how autonomous robot armies are different than nukes in their deterrent potential?
michelsedgh 8mo ago
So would you have preferred the Nazis to develop the most powerful weapons and they win the world war? (which they were trying to do?)
- anonym29 8mo ago
  If Anthropic does give the DoD what they want, does that magically stop China, Iran, Russia, etc from advancing in AI arms development? If Anthropic doesn't give the DoD what they want, does that mean that China, Iran, Russia, etc magically leapfrog not only Anthropic, but the entire US defense industry, and take over the planet?
  - andsoitis 8mo ago
    > If Anthropic does give the DoD what they want, does that magically stop China, Iran, Russia, etc from advancing in AI arms development? No > If Anthropic doesn't give the DoD what they want, does that mean that China, Iran, Russia, etc magically leapfrog not only Anthropic, but the entire US defense industry, and take over the planet? The risks are high, so if you're the US, you want a portfolio of possible winners. The risks are too high to not leverage all the cutting edge AI labs.
    - gbear605 8mo ago
      Anthropic was already giving them that. It’s not like they need domestic mass surveillance or autonomous kill bots to have a portfolio of possible winners. If the goal is to keep the US competitive in AI, this whole process was actively unhelpful. Honestly more helpful for our adversaries than for us.
  - tsimionescu 8mo ago
    Why are you assuming that people in China, Iran, Russia etc are not having these exact same conversations, and perhaps a powerful example from the USA, along with some belief that the USA will not be able to easily get this technology, help inspire them to abstain as well? However horrific the regimes in these countries are, the people behind the technology there are just as likely to be intelligent and moral human beings as the people in the USA and Europe working on these are.
deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]

lambdaphagy 8mo ago

There is an extremely straightforward argument that WMDs are precisely what prevented the outbreak of direct warfare between major powers in the latter 20th. (Note that WWI by itself wasn’t sufficient to prevent WWII!) You can take issue with that argument if you want but it’s unconvincing not to address it.

idiotsecant 8mo ago
That's a little bit like saying the bullet in the gun prevented someone getting shot while playing Russian Roulette. We pulled back that hammer several times, and it's purely happenstance that it didn't go off. MAD has that acronym for a reason.
- lambdaphagy 8mo ago
  I agree that the risk of an accidental strike was a huge problem with the theory of nuclear deterrence, but the question is: compared to what? In expectation or even in a 1st percentile scenario, was MAD worse than a world where the USSR is a unilateral nuclear power? For that matter, what would it have taken to get a stronger SALT treaty sooner? I think you need to have people thinking through this stuff at a nuts-and-bolts level if you want to avoid getting dominated by a slightly less nice adversary, and so too with AI. Does a unilateral guarantee not to build autonomous killbots actually make anyone safer if China makes no such promise, or does that perversely put us at more risk? I’d love to know that the “no killbots, come what may” strategy is sound, but it’s not clear that that’s a stable equilibrium.
  - tw1984 8mo ago
    > Does a unilateral guarantee not to build autonomous killbots actually make anyone safer if China makes no such promise, or does that perversely put us at more risk? China considers all lethal autonomous weapons "unacceptable", calling all countries to ban it. Countries like the US and India refuse to back such proposals. See China's official stands on this matter below. https://documents.unoda.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Working-Paper-of-the-Peoples-Republic-of-China-on-Lethal-Autonomous-Weapons-Systems%EF%BC%88English%EF%BC%89.pdf https://documents.unoda.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Worki... I totally understand that you got brainwashed by the media, but hey you appearantly have internet access, why can't you just do a little bit research of your own before posting nonsense using imagination as your source of information?
    - esseph 8mo ago
      I don't know where you got this info about China, but it's wrong. AI in a warfare context is the new Manhattan Project. All the world powers are in a race to it. https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/china-trains-ai-controlled-weapons-with-learning-from-hawks-coyotes/ https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/china-trains-ai-controll... https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/machines-in-the-alleyways-chinas-bet-on-autonomous-urban-warfare/ https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/machines-in-the-alleyways-ch... https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ai-weapons-in-chinas-military-innovation/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ai-weapons-in-chinas-mili... https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/how-china-is-using-ai-for-warfare/ https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/how-china-is-using-ai-fo...
    - lambdaphagy 8mo ago
      China does not consider all lethal autonomous weapons system "unacceptable" even for use, let alone to develop, and the document you linked explains this very clearly. Here's what the document actually says, formatted slightly for clarity: ``` Basic characteristics of Unacceptable Autonomous Weapons Systems should include but not limited to the following: - Firstly, lethality, meaning sufficient lethal payload (charge) and means. - Secondly, autonomy, meaning absence of human intervention and control during the entire process of executing a task. - Thirdly, impossibility for termination, meaning that once started, there is no way to terminate the operation. - Fourthly, indiscriminate killing, meaning that the device will execute the mission of killing and maiming regardless of conditions, scenarios and targets. - Fifthly, evolution, meaning that through interaction with the environment, the device can learn autonomously, expand its functions and capabilities in a degree exceeding human expectations. Autonomous weapons systems with all of the five characteristics clearly have anti-human characteristics and significant humanitarian risks, and the international community could consider following the example of the Protocol on Blinding Laser Weapons and work to reach a legal instrument to prohibit such weapons systems. ``` Charitably, you might say that China is worried about a nightmare scenario. Less charitably, you might say that the definition of an unacceptable weapon system is so tight that it does not describe anything that anyone would ever build, or would want to build. This posture would allow China to adopt the international posture of seeming to oppose autonomous weapons without actually de facto constraining themselves at all. This, by contrast, is what China considers acceptable: ``` Acceptable Autonomous Weapons Systems could have a high degree of autonomy, but are always under human control. It means they can be used in a secure, credible, reliable and manageable manner, can be suspended by human beings at any time and comply with basic principles of international humanitarian law in military operations, such as distinction, proportionality and precaution. ``` So as long as the system has a killswitch (something that afaik absolutely no one is proposing to dispense with?), it's Acceptable. Meanwhile, it would certainly seem that China's defense research universities are interested in developing this tech: https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/machines-in-the-alleyways-chinas-bet-on-autonomous-urban-warfare https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/machines-in-the-alleyways-ch.... So, I did a bit of research with my internet access-- how do my findings square with your impressions?
horacemorace 8mo ago
There’s also an extremely straightforward argument that if the current crop of authoritarian dictatorial players in power now had been then that the outcome of the latter 20th would have been much different.
- lambdaphagy 8mo ago
  The guy who authorized the Manhattan project: - had four [!] terms, a move so anomalous it was subsequently patched by constitutional amendment - threatened court-packing until SCOTUS backed down and stated rubber-stamping his agenda - ruled entire industries by emergency decree in a way that contemporaries on the left and right compared to Mussolini - interned 120k people without due process, on the basis of ethnicity - turned a national party into a personal patronage system - threatened to override the legislature if it didn’t start passing laws he liked Not even saying any of this is even good or bad, clearly in the official history it was retroactively justified by victory in WWII. But it’s a bit rich to say that the bomb wasn’t developed under authoritarian conditions.
  - lupire 8mo ago
    It is a huge stretch to label a popular and democratically elected amd reelected Presidentnand Congress "authoritarian".
- sethammons 8mo ago
  If my grandma had wheels she'd be a bicycle
estearum 8mo ago
Great, now go ahead and prove that AI also reaches strategic equilibrium. This was pretty much self-evident with nuclear weapons so should probably be self-evident for AI too, if it were true.
timtas 8mo ago
Can anyone see how autonomous robot armies are different than nukes in their deterrent potential?

michelsedgh 8mo ago

So would you have preferred the Nazis to develop the most powerful weapons and they win the world war? (which they were trying to do?)

anonym29 8mo ago
If Anthropic does give the DoD what they want, does that magically stop China, Iran, Russia, etc from advancing in AI arms development? If Anthropic doesn't give the DoD what they want, does that mean that China, Iran, Russia, etc magically leapfrog not only Anthropic, but the entire US defense industry, and take over the planet?
- andsoitis 8mo ago
  > If Anthropic does give the DoD what they want, does that magically stop China, Iran, Russia, etc from advancing in AI arms development? No > If Anthropic doesn't give the DoD what they want, does that mean that China, Iran, Russia, etc magically leapfrog not only Anthropic, but the entire US defense industry, and take over the planet? The risks are high, so if you're the US, you want a portfolio of possible winners. The risks are too high to not leverage all the cutting edge AI labs.
  - gbear605 8mo ago
    Anthropic was already giving them that. It’s not like they need domestic mass surveillance or autonomous kill bots to have a portfolio of possible winners. If the goal is to keep the US competitive in AI, this whole process was actively unhelpful. Honestly more helpful for our adversaries than for us.
- tsimionescu 8mo ago
  Why are you assuming that people in China, Iran, Russia etc are not having these exact same conversations, and perhaps a powerful example from the USA, along with some belief that the USA will not be able to easily get this technology, help inspire them to abstain as well? However horrific the regimes in these countries are, the people behind the technology there are just as likely to be intelligent and moral human beings as the people in the USA and Europe working on these are.

deleted 8mo ago

[deleted]