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Hydrogen has been the future as long as I have been paying attention to electric cars. There are many problems with it, including Hydrogen is the smallest molec

Hydrogen has been the future as long as I have been paying attention to electric cars. There are many problems with it, including Hydrogen is the smallest molecule. It leaks through seals, embrittles metals, and has terrible energy density by volume. You either compress it to 700 bar (heavy tanks), liquefy it at -253°C (energy-intensive), or store it in metal hydrides (heavy, slow release). Solid state batteries are much more interesting. They extend EV range to 600-1000 miles and enable 10-minute charging. If they work at scale, they kill hydrogen for cars, trucks, and probably short-haul aviation too.

nerdsniper 8mo ago
Compressed hydrogen and cryogenic liquefaction also present explosive/BLEVE risks. Metal-hydride is probably the only reasonably safe-ish option. Other issues (like hydrogen embrittlement, leaking, slower flow-rate) are all very real challenges, but 'solvable'. Solving all of them at a price that consumers/businesses can stomach is quite debatable. Batteries are just too good nowadays to expect hydrogen to receive the level of R&D and infrastructure investment to become at all competitive.
defrost 8mo ago
The path of most interest to many is Renewables -> bulk hydrogen as storage -> electricity grid. The bulk storage method of interest is dissolved salt caverns: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47160599 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47160599
- yiyu_earth 8mo ago
  [flagged]
  - defrost 8mo ago
    The arena of pragmatic debate here is in the billion tonne / annum heavy haulage mineral resources sector. The few big players are keen to drop fossil fuels for many reasons and have had the capital to invest in meaningful R&D for the past decades which is still ongoing. They also have an advantage of fixed controlled routes and total infrastructure control over extraction, haulage, and shipping sites; power, rail, roads, et al. Recent notes from that edge include: * Fortescue says Rio Tinto wrong about electric trucks, admits hydrogen tech at “very early stage” - https://reneweconomy.com.au/fortescue-says-rio-tinto-wrong-about-electric-trucks-admits-hydrogen-tech-at-very-early-stage/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/fortescue-says-rio-tinto-wrong-a... * BHP and Rio Tinto welcome first Caterpillar battery-electric haul trucks to the Pilbara - https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2025/bhp-and-rio-tinto-welcome-first-caterpillar-battery-electric-haul-trucks-to-the-pilbara https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2025/bhp-and-rio-t... and * Andrew Forrest pivots on hydrogen trucks - https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/fortescue-and-rio-say-batteries-will-beat-hydrogen-for-trucks-20230614-p5dgj4 https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/fortescue-and-rio-say-b... Forrest being one of the more pro-hydrogen billionaires in the mix. FWiW I watch all the approaches with interest and expect to see more Red Queen racing before any trophies go out.
- idiotsecant 8mo ago
  Bulk hydrogen makes a lot less sense than pumping water up a hill. We have thousands and thousands of sites throughout the country that would be great for pumped storage and require absolutely no advanced technology. They are buildable today.
  - defrost 8mo ago
    Location, location, location - there are many sites globally suitable for geological bulk hydrogen storage; the UK has had the Tesside site operational until recently since the early 1970s. They were built 50 years ago. (Slightly before today). Pumped hydrogen at Walpole is a great functional little project that eases the grid edge brown out problem. ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45332157 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45332157 ) Scaling that up to the energy storage potential of the right geological structures of the sizes needed to power cities and run heavy industrial isn't as economically clearcut as you may assume.
    - defrost 8mo ago
      > Pumped hydrogen == Pumped hydroelectric / pumped water <doh>
  - rob74 8mo ago
    I guess that with "throughout the country" you mean the US? There, building gigantic new pumped storage systems might work, e.g. somewhere on a mesa in a desert with few people living nearby (OTOH you need some source of water for pumped storage too, so a desert location is not really ideal), but in more populated locations (i.e. Europe) such a project would face opposition and interminable delays caused by all the NIMBYs living next to it. Besides that: pumped storage is good for regulating short-term fluctuations (between day and night), not so sure about storing surplus renewable energy produced in summer to use it during winter, as the article proposes?
rfv6723 8mo ago
Solid state batteries are overhyped because their production complexity makes them a pricing nightmare for the average consumer. Sodium ion batteries are the practical choice for short distance transport because they are affordable and charge incredibly fast. When it comes to long distance shipping or aviation, the energy density of liquid fuel is simply too hard to beat. Fossil fuels will stay dominant for decades, likely evolving into carbon captured or bio derived alternatives rather than being replaced by batteries.
toomuchtodo 8mo ago
Electric heavy duty trucks are already here, with existing battery technology. > In 2020, nearly all new trucks in China ran on diesel. By the first half of 2025, battery-powered trucks accounted for 22% of new heavy truck sales, up from 9.2% in the same period in 2024, according to Commercial Vehicle World, a Beijing-based trucking data provider. The British research firm BMI forecasts electric trucks will reach nearly 46% of new sales this year and 60% next year. > The share of electrics in new truck sales, from 8% in 2024 to 28% by August 2025, has more than tripled as prices have fallen. Electric trucks outsold LNG-powered vehicles in China for five consecutive months this year, according to Commercial Vehicle World. > While electric trucks are two to three times more expensive than diesel ones and cost roughly 18% more than LNG trucks, their higher energy efficiency and lower costs can save owners an estimated 10% to 26% over the vehicle’s lifetime, according to research by Chinese scientists. https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2025/chinas-diesel-trucks-are-shifting-to-electric-that-could-change-global-lng-and-diesel-demand/ https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2025/chinas-di... https://electrek.co/2026/01/24/hybrid-and-electric-semi-truck-sales-topped-231000-units-2025-in-china-alone/ https://electrek.co/2026/01/24/hybrid-and-electric-semi-truc... https://www.electrive.com/2026/01/23/year-end-surge-electric-trucks-outsell-diesel-for-the-first-time-in-china/ https://www.electrive.com/2026/01/23/year-end-surge-electric...
tjmc 8mo ago
Looking forward to seeing solid state batteries for aviation, but the scary part is that they get heavier when they discharge as oxygen from the air turns into solid oxide.
- AnthonyMouse 8mo ago
  Isn't that good for aviation? Makes it relatively less expensive to carry reserve energy you don't expect to use, don't have to pay the weight cost during takeoff when weight costs the most energy because you just charged the battery and once you're at cruising speed more weight is just neutral momentum. Probably the least convenient thing would be if you had to land and take off again somewhere without recharging.
  - jMyles 8mo ago
    > Probably the least convenient thing would be if you had to land and take off again somewhere without recharging. ...or... go around?
    - AnthonyMouse 8mo ago
      Except you started with 1500 miles of charge for a 200 mile flight because "fully charged" weighs less. If you're up there waiting for a long time you don't have to fly in a tight circle at a high speed.
      - tjmc 8mo ago
        The issue is maximum take off weight. Presumably the discharged battery weight would be the one you use in the pre-flight MTOW calculations, because the worse case scenario is one where you're landing an almost discharged battery and have to go around.
        jMyles 8mo ago
        Yes, this was exactly my thought; maybe I needed to state it more clearly.
_carbyau_ 8mo ago
> enable 10-minute charging. I have a problem with the current physics of this. A car requires a LOT of energy to run. The electrical requirements "at the pump" are going to be pretty hefty for 10 minute charging. Unless: 1. Reduce capacity requirements. IE Cars evolve smaller and smaller until they are practically aerodynamically efficient go-karts. A trend opposite of current affairs.... 2. Charge for longer timeframes but swap in less than 10 minutes. IE standardise and replace batteries as needed. I suspect that the "10 minute recharge" meme will be obviated by ridiculous ranges allowing us to then charge while sleeping instead.
- vardump 8mo ago
  Very much simplified, a 10 minute charge would mean 6C charging throughout the curve. 100 kWh battery would thus require 600 kW on average. Right now the most powerful MCS chargers deliver 1440 kW. So not impossible, as long as the battery can handle the current. It's obvious that charging technology is not going to be the bottleneck. (A real battery would probably have a charging curve that slows down towards the end, so more than 6C would be required in realistic conditions.)
- xbmcuser 8mo ago
  2-3 min battery replacement is already a thing in China for trucks. The largest manufacture CATL is also pushing for safety and compatibility standards so all trucks can use all truck batteries in future. And for charging they are building charging stations with batteries that are charged slowly but can charge cars fast. The electricity revolution is just picking up pace
  - mikestorrent 8mo ago
    Trucks are a far cry from cars. There's a lot more space and specialized service facilities and maintenance procedures are the norm. Drivers are expected to understand far more about their vehicles.
    - xbmcuser 8mo ago
      I don't understand what you mean Nio the car manufacturer is already doing 100k+ battery swaps a day for passenger cars. I mentioned ev trucks as some mentioned that hydrogen would be easier / cheaper for trucks which I think is wrong as using explosions to move object won't be as cheap or maintenance free as using electricity to move magnets/motors.
svnt 8mo ago
My favorite part is that high pressure hydrogen leaks can auto-ignite in air. http://www.icders.org/ICDERS2007/abstracts/ICDERS2007-0255.pdf http://www.icders.org/ICDERS2007/abstracts/ICDERS2007-0255.p...
adonovan 8mo ago
> Hydrogen is the smallest molecule. It leaks through seals, embrittles metals, ... Second smallest, after monatomic Helium molecules (which have similar problems of storage, embrittlement, and leakage).
idontwantthis 8mo ago
It's always been clear to me that Hydrogen is not the future, because the car companies that made hydrogen cars never tried to build a hydrogen fuel distribution system. The main reason EVs are a thing is that Tesla built the supercharger network. The fact that Honda or Toyota didn't do that for Hydrogen is the reason it has not been a serious fuel alternative. And they probably didn't do that because they always knew the economics would never work out and were never serious about pursuing it.

nerdsniper 8mo ago

Compressed hydrogen and cryogenic liquefaction also present explosive/BLEVE risks. Metal-hydride is probably the only reasonably safe-ish option. Other issues (like hydrogen embrittlement, leaking, slower flow-rate) are all very real challenges, but 'solvable'. Solving all of them at a price that consumers/businesses can stomach is quite debatable. Batteries are just too good nowadays to expect hydrogen to receive the level of R&D and infrastructure investment to become at all competitive.

defrost 8mo ago

The path of most interest to many is Renewables -> bulk hydrogen as storage -> electricity grid. The bulk storage method of interest is dissolved salt caverns: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47160599 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47160599

yiyu_earth 8mo ago
[flagged]
- defrost 8mo ago
  The arena of pragmatic debate here is in the billion tonne / annum heavy haulage mineral resources sector. The few big players are keen to drop fossil fuels for many reasons and have had the capital to invest in meaningful R&D for the past decades which is still ongoing. They also have an advantage of fixed controlled routes and total infrastructure control over extraction, haulage, and shipping sites; power, rail, roads, et al. Recent notes from that edge include: * Fortescue says Rio Tinto wrong about electric trucks, admits hydrogen tech at “very early stage” - https://reneweconomy.com.au/fortescue-says-rio-tinto-wrong-about-electric-trucks-admits-hydrogen-tech-at-very-early-stage/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/fortescue-says-rio-tinto-wrong-a... * BHP and Rio Tinto welcome first Caterpillar battery-electric haul trucks to the Pilbara - https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2025/bhp-and-rio-tinto-welcome-first-caterpillar-battery-electric-haul-trucks-to-the-pilbara https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases/2025/bhp-and-rio-t... and * Andrew Forrest pivots on hydrogen trucks - https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/fortescue-and-rio-say-batteries-will-beat-hydrogen-for-trucks-20230614-p5dgj4 https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/fortescue-and-rio-say-b... Forrest being one of the more pro-hydrogen billionaires in the mix. FWiW I watch all the approaches with interest and expect to see more Red Queen racing before any trophies go out.
idiotsecant 8mo ago
Bulk hydrogen makes a lot less sense than pumping water up a hill. We have thousands and thousands of sites throughout the country that would be great for pumped storage and require absolutely no advanced technology. They are buildable today.
- defrost 8mo ago
  Location, location, location - there are many sites globally suitable for geological bulk hydrogen storage; the UK has had the Tesside site operational until recently since the early 1970s. They were built 50 years ago. (Slightly before today). Pumped hydrogen at Walpole is a great functional little project that eases the grid edge brown out problem. ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45332157 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45332157 ) Scaling that up to the energy storage potential of the right geological structures of the sizes needed to power cities and run heavy industrial isn't as economically clearcut as you may assume.
  - defrost 8mo ago
    > Pumped hydrogen == Pumped hydroelectric / pumped water <doh>
- rob74 8mo ago
  I guess that with "throughout the country" you mean the US? There, building gigantic new pumped storage systems might work, e.g. somewhere on a mesa in a desert with few people living nearby (OTOH you need some source of water for pumped storage too, so a desert location is not really ideal), but in more populated locations (i.e. Europe) such a project would face opposition and interminable delays caused by all the NIMBYs living next to it. Besides that: pumped storage is good for regulating short-term fluctuations (between day and night), not so sure about storing surplus renewable energy produced in summer to use it during winter, as the article proposes?

rfv6723 8mo ago

Solid state batteries are overhyped because their production complexity makes them a pricing nightmare for the average consumer. Sodium ion batteries are the practical choice for short distance transport because they are affordable and charge incredibly fast. When it comes to long distance shipping or aviation, the energy density of liquid fuel is simply too hard to beat. Fossil fuels will stay dominant for decades, likely evolving into carbon captured or bio derived alternatives rather than being replaced by batteries.

toomuchtodo 8mo ago

Electric heavy duty trucks are already here, with existing battery technology. > In 2020, nearly all new trucks in China ran on diesel. By the first half of 2025, battery-powered trucks accounted for 22% of new heavy truck sales, up from 9.2% in the same period in 2024, according to Commercial Vehicle World, a Beijing-based trucking data provider. The British research firm BMI forecasts electric trucks will reach nearly 46% of new sales this year and 60% next year. > The share of electrics in new truck sales, from 8% in 2024 to 28% by August 2025, has more than tripled as prices have fallen. Electric trucks outsold LNG-powered vehicles in China for five consecutive months this year, according to Commercial Vehicle World. > While electric trucks are two to three times more expensive than diesel ones and cost roughly 18% more than LNG trucks, their higher energy efficiency and lower costs can save owners an estimated 10% to 26% over the vehicle’s lifetime, according to research by Chinese scientists. https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2025/chinas-diesel-trucks-are-shifting-to-electric-that-could-change-global-lng-and-diesel-demand/ https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2025/chinas-di... https://electrek.co/2026/01/24/hybrid-and-electric-semi-truck-sales-topped-231000-units-2025-in-china-alone/ https://electrek.co/2026/01/24/hybrid-and-electric-semi-truc... https://www.electrive.com/2026/01/23/year-end-surge-electric-trucks-outsell-diesel-for-the-first-time-in-china/ https://www.electrive.com/2026/01/23/year-end-surge-electric...

tjmc 8mo ago

Looking forward to seeing solid state batteries for aviation, but the scary part is that they get heavier when they discharge as oxygen from the air turns into solid oxide.

AnthonyMouse 8mo ago
Isn't that good for aviation? Makes it relatively less expensive to carry reserve energy you don't expect to use, don't have to pay the weight cost during takeoff when weight costs the most energy because you just charged the battery and once you're at cruising speed more weight is just neutral momentum. Probably the least convenient thing would be if you had to land and take off again somewhere without recharging.
- jMyles 8mo ago
  > Probably the least convenient thing would be if you had to land and take off again somewhere without recharging. ...or... go around?
  - AnthonyMouse 8mo ago
    Except you started with 1500 miles of charge for a 200 mile flight because "fully charged" weighs less. If you're up there waiting for a long time you don't have to fly in a tight circle at a high speed.
    - tjmc 8mo ago
      The issue is maximum take off weight. Presumably the discharged battery weight would be the one you use in the pre-flight MTOW calculations, because the worse case scenario is one where you're landing an almost discharged battery and have to go around.
      - jMyles 8mo ago
        Yes, this was exactly my thought; maybe I needed to state it more clearly.

_carbyau_ 8mo ago

> enable 10-minute charging. I have a problem with the current physics of this. A car requires a LOT of energy to run. The electrical requirements "at the pump" are going to be pretty hefty for 10 minute charging. Unless: 1. Reduce capacity requirements. IE Cars evolve smaller and smaller until they are practically aerodynamically efficient go-karts. A trend opposite of current affairs.... 2. Charge for longer timeframes but swap in less than 10 minutes. IE standardise and replace batteries as needed. I suspect that the "10 minute recharge" meme will be obviated by ridiculous ranges allowing us to then charge while sleeping instead.

vardump 8mo ago
Very much simplified, a 10 minute charge would mean 6C charging throughout the curve. 100 kWh battery would thus require 600 kW on average. Right now the most powerful MCS chargers deliver 1440 kW. So not impossible, as long as the battery can handle the current. It's obvious that charging technology is not going to be the bottleneck. (A real battery would probably have a charging curve that slows down towards the end, so more than 6C would be required in realistic conditions.)
xbmcuser 8mo ago
2-3 min battery replacement is already a thing in China for trucks. The largest manufacture CATL is also pushing for safety and compatibility standards so all trucks can use all truck batteries in future. And for charging they are building charging stations with batteries that are charged slowly but can charge cars fast. The electricity revolution is just picking up pace
- mikestorrent 8mo ago
  Trucks are a far cry from cars. There's a lot more space and specialized service facilities and maintenance procedures are the norm. Drivers are expected to understand far more about their vehicles.
  - xbmcuser 8mo ago
    I don't understand what you mean Nio the car manufacturer is already doing 100k+ battery swaps a day for passenger cars. I mentioned ev trucks as some mentioned that hydrogen would be easier / cheaper for trucks which I think is wrong as using explosions to move object won't be as cheap or maintenance free as using electricity to move magnets/motors.

svnt 8mo ago

My favorite part is that high pressure hydrogen leaks can auto-ignite in air. http://www.icders.org/ICDERS2007/abstracts/ICDERS2007-0255.pdf http://www.icders.org/ICDERS2007/abstracts/ICDERS2007-0255.p...

adonovan 8mo ago

> Hydrogen is the smallest molecule. It leaks through seals, embrittles metals, ... Second smallest, after monatomic Helium molecules (which have similar problems of storage, embrittlement, and leakage).

idontwantthis 8mo ago

It's always been clear to me that Hydrogen is not the future, because the car companies that made hydrogen cars never tried to build a hydrogen fuel distribution system. The main reason EVs are a thing is that Tesla built the supercharger network. The fact that Honda or Toyota didn't do that for Hydrogen is the reason it has not been a serious fuel alternative. And they probably didn't do that because they always knew the economics would never work out and were never serious about pursuing it.