2 ms·
Alignment is impossible here. “Nearly certain” odds for success for a sports team might be 20:1, but that’s a little worse (not much!) than for a launch vehicle
by selridge 8mo ago
Alignment is impossible here. “Nearly certain” odds for success for a sports team might be 20:1, but that’s a little worse (not much!) than for a launch vehicle and not at all good for a web server. No one would say “it is nearly certain that I’ll serve a web request” based on two 9’s, but they would say “it is nearly certain the team will win today” given the same odds. That’s just between humans.
- dTal 8mo agoThis is an excellent observation that probabilistic phrasing is inherently contextual, but I don't know if I'd agree that something being nuanced and context dependent inherently means "alignment is impossible". Certainly it implies that the design of the study was simplistic.