4 ms·

What goods?

AnimalMuppet 8mo ago
Software is a "good", as far as economic statistics go. AI is helping produce more software, right? Including more software that is for sale?[1] Or more online services that are for sale? [1] One of the interesting things here is going to be liability. You can vibecode an app. You can throw together a corporation to sell it. But if it malfunctions and causes damage, your thrown-together corporation won't have the resources to pay for it. Yeah, you can just have the company declare bankruptcy and walk away, leaving the user high and dry. After that happens a few times, the commercial market for vibecoded apps may get kind of thin. In fact, the market for software sold by any kind of startup may also get thin.
- measurablefunc 8mo ago
  So is the premise here that making more software is going to have a deflationary effect on the entire economy of material goods? If so then that's obviously nonsensical.
  - AnimalMuppet 8mo ago
    That's not what I said, no. More software is going to have a deflationary effect on software, which is part of the "goods" economy if it's sold in a box, or even (I think) if it's sold as a download. If it's just online, it's probably considered a service. Either way, more of it, more cheaply produced, decreases the value of each piece.
    - measurablefunc 8mo ago
      I haven't paid for any software in a long time & my monthly subscriptions for data storage & basic AI adds up to less than $100/month. Data storage is already as cheap as it could possibly get so AI is not going to make that any cheaper. More money in the economy is not going to have a deflationary effect, prices for everything will go up, including software services like data backups b/c cost of the service has nothing to do w/ software & the hardware is only going to get more expensive.
- rchaud 8mo ago
  Software stopped being a good when it no longer came in a box with finite inventory, that you had to pay for only once. It's part of the services economy, same as insurance or car rental services, regardless of how the Fed classifies it.
twoodfin 8mo ago
Anything that AI makes more efficient to produce. You can make a lot of money if you can predict the scope of that.
- measurablefunc 8mo ago
  So you don't have any actual examples. Just a general vague feeling about some magical outcome.
  - twoodfin 8mo ago
    If you’re confident that AI won’t raise productivity significantly in a broad range of industries, there are likely some very attractive bets out there in the market to take the other side of.
    - measurablefunc 8mo ago
      Keep your financial advice for yourself instead of handing it out to random strangers on the internet. That way you have more "alpha" but since you already offered you should feel free to just give everyone else in the forum the benefits of your wisdom so they can also see how smart you are for betting that AI is going to make everything much cheaper.
- palmotea 8mo ago
  > Anything that AI makes more efficient to produce. You can make a lot of money if you can predict the scope of that. So slop? And maybe bespoke software? Those aren't the goods that unemployed workers need. AI won't lead to abundance, because of the simple fact it can't produce energy. The things people need will still be resource constrained, and many of those resources are getting redirected away from people to power AI.

What goods?

Software is a "good", as far as economic statistics go. AI is helping produce more software, right? Including more software that is for sale?[1] Or more online services that are for sale? [1] One of the interesting things here is going to be liability. You can vibecode an app. You can throw together a corporation to sell it. But if it malfunctions and causes damage, your thrown-together corporation won't have the resources to pay for it. Yeah, you can just have the company declare bankruptcy and walk away, leaving the user high and dry. After that happens a few times, the commercial market for vibecoded apps may get kind of thin. In fact, the market for software sold by any kind of startup may also get thin.

measurablefunc 8mo ago
So is the premise here that making more software is going to have a deflationary effect on the entire economy of material goods? If so then that's obviously nonsensical.
- AnimalMuppet 8mo ago
  That's not what I said, no. More software is going to have a deflationary effect on software, which is part of the "goods" economy if it's sold in a box, or even (I think) if it's sold as a download. If it's just online, it's probably considered a service. Either way, more of it, more cheaply produced, decreases the value of each piece.
  - measurablefunc 8mo ago
    I haven't paid for any software in a long time & my monthly subscriptions for data storage & basic AI adds up to less than $100/month. Data storage is already as cheap as it could possibly get so AI is not going to make that any cheaper. More money in the economy is not going to have a deflationary effect, prices for everything will go up, including software services like data backups b/c cost of the service has nothing to do w/ software & the hardware is only going to get more expensive.
rchaud 8mo ago
Software stopped being a good when it no longer came in a box with finite inventory, that you had to pay for only once. It's part of the services economy, same as insurance or car rental services, regardless of how the Fed classifies it.

twoodfin 8mo ago

Anything that AI makes more efficient to produce. You can make a lot of money if you can predict the scope of that.

measurablefunc 8mo ago
So you don't have any actual examples. Just a general vague feeling about some magical outcome.
- twoodfin 8mo ago
  If you’re confident that AI won’t raise productivity significantly in a broad range of industries, there are likely some very attractive bets out there in the market to take the other side of.
  - measurablefunc 8mo ago
    Keep your financial advice for yourself instead of handing it out to random strangers on the internet. That way you have more "alpha" but since you already offered you should feel free to just give everyone else in the forum the benefits of your wisdom so they can also see how smart you are for betting that AI is going to make everything much cheaper.
palmotea 8mo ago
> Anything that AI makes more efficient to produce. You can make a lot of money if you can predict the scope of that. So slop? And maybe bespoke software? Those aren't the goods that unemployed workers need. AI won't lead to abundance, because of the simple fact it can't produce energy. The things people need will still be resource constrained, and many of those resources are getting redirected away from people to power AI.