4 ms·
Are you really equating daily weather predictions with meteorological science? That's like saying "they don't know what the next 3 coin flips are going to be bu
by baueric 9mo ago
Are you really equating daily weather predictions with meteorological science? That's like saying "they don't know what the next 3 coin flips are going to be but they know half of the next 10,000 will be tails"
- blell 9mo agoUnfortunately weather predictions aren’t as simple as a coin flip. But I’m sure meteorologists would manage to fuck up coin flips too.
- baueric 9mo agoand humans haven't figured out anything more complex than a coin flip...
- trimethylpurine 9mo agoThat's not exactly true, it seems. Forecasts become less accurate the further out you go, unlike coin flips. Weather forecasts are generally accurate about 90% of the time for a five-day forecast and around 80% for a seven-day forecast. Forecasts beyond ten days are only correct about half the time.
- baueric 9mo agoyou're conflating statistics and trends with discrete predictions
- trimethylpurine 9mo agoWell, I'm not. The previous poster is. I'm more simply pointing out, without using terminology, that we shouldn't.
- triceratops 9mo agoWhy do you pack a light jacket if you go to Tasmania for a week in June, regardless of the forecast?
- InitialLastName 9mo agoWhy might you wear a life jacket on a boat, even though you're 99.9% likely not to have the boat flip over?
- triceratops 9mo agoThere's a difference between being slightly uncomfortable for a week and dying.
- hippo22 9mo agoYou can’t predict a coin flip because it is random. However, we have an accurate understanding of the random process producing coin flips and therefore, we can make accurate predictions about large quantities of flips. Weather may or may not be random. It could be entirely deterministic for all we know. However, we lack the ability to fully model all the factors that contribute to weather and therefore our predictions are inaccurate. Now let’s consider long term climate predications. Do you think these predictions are more like coin flips, where we have an extremely accurate model of the process, or more like weather, where unknown unknowns have outsized impact on accuracy? That’s not to say climate change isn’t real, but your analogy doesn’t make sense.
- baueric 9mo agoAll responses are so focused on exact predictions. We have high certainty that 50% of flips will be tails over long enough timespan. We don't know what any single flip will be. Climate science works the same way. But climate is not a coin, let's say it's a multisided die and it appears the sides are changing sizes as we compare data year over year.
- hippo22 9mo agoI think you’re missing my point: we’re only able to predict large numbers of coin flips because we have an accurate model. We don’t have an accurate model for weather, so we can’t predict it well. I don’t see a reason to assume our model for climate is accurate, either.
- felixgallo 9mo agoOur models of weather are so accurate that literally trillions of dollars per year bank on them in the agriculture sector, the shipping sector, and everywhere else. Similarly, our models of climate change have been refined and refined, and now are essentially irrefutable.
- Recurecur 9mo ago