3 ms·

All I'm saying is the hype around these things is always 10x what the reality ends up being, every single time. Autonomous cars, bitcoin, VR, metaverse, it's al

by lm28469 8mo ago

All I'm saying is the hype around these things is always 10x what the reality ends up being, every single time. Autonomous cars, bitcoin, VR, metaverse, it's always the same story, a loooooot of hype, a bit of actual delivery, and move on to the next sca...project Where does the 7% number come from actually? no one knows... where are the hundred millions of unemployed people? no one knows, where is the productivity increase? no one knows. It moves fast and their shoveling a lot of shit down our throats, that I agree with, I'm just not seeing any of the magic or "AGI in two weeks my dudes" type of things.

agentifysh 8mo ago
Not all hype is the same. Internet was hyped. Automobile ("faster horses please"). Telephone ("we have messengers on horses already"). Radio & Television ("nobody is gonna sit in front of a box all day!"). Computers ("nobody wants these clunky loud things in tehir home"). Smartphones ("no keyboard its useless).
- lm28469 8mo ago
  None of these industries had weirdos asking for $7 trillion to cure every disease and solve every problem known to man, they all grew organically over decades before finding their uses without being actively forced into every aspect of your life 2 years after the mvp was released.
  - agentifysh 8mo ago
    In all of those cases capital chased a future reality, railroad, electricity, internet all had massive speculation. the dot com bubble came and went but internet stayed. $7 trillion looks cartoonish due to inflation, you'd have to normalize it with other economic numbers. Large companies are funding capex with bonds that still within healthy margins per employee head. > to cure every disease and solve every problem known to man not sure why you view this so negatively, that would be absolutely worth every penny. Granted there is a lot of noise too but dismissing everything because of the volume is premature. Technological shifts rarely produce catastrophic labor supply/demand shocks that last, it changes how we work and the market adjusts. You are conflating the hype layer typical with all major technological breakthroughs and the subsequent capability that gets baked into humanity as a result.
nomel 8mo ago
What does AGI have to do with it? Look up the top employer for your state [1] (or top few). If you go with the definition that AGI allows novel ideas/innovation, you'll see AGI is not needed for most jobs. Don't fall for the hype or anti-hype. [1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/largest-employer-by-state https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/largest-emp...

by lm28469 8mo ago

agentifysh 8mo ago

Not all hype is the same. Internet was hyped. Automobile ("faster horses please"). Telephone ("we have messengers on horses already"). Radio & Television ("nobody is gonna sit in front of a box all day!"). Computers ("nobody wants these clunky loud things in tehir home"). Smartphones ("no keyboard its useless).

lm28469 8mo ago
None of these industries had weirdos asking for $7 trillion to cure every disease and solve every problem known to man, they all grew organically over decades before finding their uses without being actively forced into every aspect of your life 2 years after the mvp was released.
- agentifysh 8mo ago
  In all of those cases capital chased a future reality, railroad, electricity, internet all had massive speculation. the dot com bubble came and went but internet stayed. $7 trillion looks cartoonish due to inflation, you'd have to normalize it with other economic numbers. Large companies are funding capex with bonds that still within healthy margins per employee head. > to cure every disease and solve every problem known to man not sure why you view this so negatively, that would be absolutely worth every penny. Granted there is a lot of noise too but dismissing everything because of the volume is premature. Technological shifts rarely produce catastrophic labor supply/demand shocks that last, it changes how we work and the market adjusts. You are conflating the hype layer typical with all major technological breakthroughs and the subsequent capability that gets baked into humanity as a result.

nomel 8mo ago

What does AGI have to do with it? Look up the top employer for your state [1] (or top few). If you go with the definition that AGI allows novel ideas/innovation, you'll see AGI is not needed for most jobs. Don't fall for the hype or anti-hype. [1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/largest-employer-by-state https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/largest-emp...