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Raising $100M doesn’t even mean you have a good idea or an idea people like or an idea you can even make money on.
by fmbb 8mo ago
Raising $100M doesn’t even mean you have a good idea or an idea people like or an idea you can even make money on.
- arijun 8mo agoIt’s probably a better indicator of a good business idea than if you get slapped in the face…
- arghwhat 8mo agoAnd yet, who would you trust more - a CEO that raised 100M on their "vision" or someone who got slapped in the face?
- toomuchtodo 8mo agoA raise is random noise, not signal, based a confidence game within the VC ecosystem. LP capital call->GP gamble based on waves arms around considering VC underperforms as an asset [1] [2] class even when accounting for the grand slam returns. It's 0DTE options gambling dressed up as skill and an art. But, you know [3] [4] [5], lottery still pays out sometimes. TLDR A raise is not robust signal in this regard. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7260137 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7260137 [2] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/peterjameswalker_most-venture-funds-will-underperform-the-activity-7418729501393870848-Bn1Z/ https://www.linkedin.com/posts/peterjameswalker_most-venture... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There%27s_a_sucker_born_every_minute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There%27s_a_sucker_born_every_... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
- LtWorf 8mo agoI mean, juicero got the money instead of the slaps in the face it deserved. And there's thousands of startup like that. I think VCs are terrible at picking and a dice would probably do a better job.