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The massive amount of production-oriented research in solid state and semi solid state batteries indicates to me that this stuff is coming soon in a big way. I'

The massive amount of production-oriented research in solid state and semi solid state batteries indicates to me that this stuff is coming soon in a big way. I've been curious about buying an electric car recently, and if I buy one right now it would only be a used one, don't want to fully invest in something about to be obselete.

fhdkweig 7mo ago
I make the same argument when I buy a computer. If I just wait a little longer, there will be a faster cheaper version of what I can buy today. When buying anything that depreciates, the best strategy is to wait (possibly forever) and only buy when you really need it now.
- yomismoaqui 7mo ago
  Until you wait too much and end in a RAM shortage period due to AI...
  - fhdkweig 7mo ago
    My limited understanding of RAM prices are that they are very cyclical. Very expensive followed by very cheap. You just have to be willing to wait.
    - yomismoaqui 7mo ago
      I hope you are right, but maybe this one is not like the previous ones. Micron leaving consumer market sounds like the real money will be on the AI hardware market. Personally I bought my new laptop a month ago. Let's hope when I have to buy the next one this craziness will be history.
zemvpferreira 7mo ago
“Soon” is likely 5-10 years easily though.
stetrain 7mo ago
The whole industry is always working on improved batteries. But it's a long road from lab-scale to mass production, and often improvements in one area have downsides in another. New generations of cells that improve energy density usually start out more expensive than existing chemistries, so they show up at the high end of the market first and work their way down. If we do get truly improved solid-state batteries available in EVs in the next 5 years, it will likely start at the high end of the market and work its way down over many years to cheaper segments as production capacity ramps up. The base model EVs aren't going to suddenly have their batteries swapped out with ones that are twice as good for the same price.

fhdkweig 7mo ago

I make the same argument when I buy a computer. If I just wait a little longer, there will be a faster cheaper version of what I can buy today. When buying anything that depreciates, the best strategy is to wait (possibly forever) and only buy when you really need it now.

yomismoaqui 7mo ago
Until you wait too much and end in a RAM shortage period due to AI...
- fhdkweig 7mo ago
  My limited understanding of RAM prices are that they are very cyclical. Very expensive followed by very cheap. You just have to be willing to wait.
  - yomismoaqui 7mo ago
    I hope you are right, but maybe this one is not like the previous ones. Micron leaving consumer market sounds like the real money will be on the AI hardware market. Personally I bought my new laptop a month ago. Let's hope when I have to buy the next one this craziness will be history.

zemvpferreira 7mo ago

“Soon” is likely 5-10 years easily though.

stetrain 7mo ago

The whole industry is always working on improved batteries. But it's a long road from lab-scale to mass production, and often improvements in one area have downsides in another. New generations of cells that improve energy density usually start out more expensive than existing chemistries, so they show up at the high end of the market first and work their way down. If we do get truly improved solid-state batteries available in EVs in the next 5 years, it will likely start at the high end of the market and work its way down over many years to cheaper segments as production capacity ramps up. The base model EVs aren't going to suddenly have their batteries swapped out with ones that are twice as good for the same price.