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We see that market is very irrational now and it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech. By the time market figures things o

by gck1 8mo ago

We see that market is very irrational now and it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech. By the time market figures things out, you may no longer have services, and hardware that you use daily. When such amounts of stupid money are pumped into a single industry, even if all AI companies went out of business tomorrow, it's going to take years for things to go back to normal. FWIW, I'm not advocating taxes, as I think that won't really do anything. I don't know what the solution is either.

embedding-shape 8mo ago
> it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech What does this even mean? I know people on the internet sometimes exaggerate, but I cannot even begin to find a more charitable meaning with this, what exactly will be "destroyed" in "tech" because of prices going up for a year or two?
- gck1 8mo ago
  Here's an easy experiment to conduct: look around the room at your home and count all the devices that have a CPU, RAM, SSD or HDD. Then take a look at your bank statement to see what are the services you pay for monthly that also require the same hardware. Now, imagine that these devices or services can no longer procure RAM, SSD or HDD. There's no more available supply for these components, because this is what's happening. Would you still be able to have these devices if they all broke tomorrow? What about your hypothetical Backblaze subscription? Would you still be able to have an off-site backup?
  - embedding-shape 8mo ago
    > imagine that these devices or services can no longer procure RAM, SSD or HDD Why would I imagine something so far out from what will realistically happen? Again, a lot of doom and gloom over very unrealistic scenarios. Where are you even getting this from, YouTube channels? Of course if there is no RAM or flash-storage at all available, eventually hardware will be unfeasible. But when we've experienced these sort of things before, it eventually restores to "normal" prices, and there absolutely nothing pointing to what we're experiencing now to get even worse, if anything it's already stabilized.
    - iso1631 8mo ago
      You don't have to look too far back in history -- look at the supply squeeze during covid, or even just during the Suez closure by the Evergiven.
      - infecto 8mo ago
        [flagged]
    - ErneX 8mo ago
      Valve had to delay a bunch of new products already. They also had to effectively discontinue the non-OLED Steam Deck due to the increased prices. https://www.theverge.com/games/874196/valve-steam-machine-frame-controller-delay-pricing-memory-crisis https://www.theverge.com/games/874196/valve-steam-machine-fr...
      - embedding-shape 8mo ago
        Yeah, which shows that Valve don't think "these devices or services can no longer procure RAM, SSD or HDD" is actually what'll happen in reality, because then they'd have to cancel the hardware fully. Instead, they're delaying it.
        ErneX 8mo ago
        With a likely price increase. Regarding OP, I don’t think they implied this will last forever, but is definitely concerning.
        embedding-shape 8mo ago
        I jumped into the discussion because of this hyperbole: > to destroy everything we know in tech Valve (temporarily) increasing the pricing of yet-to-launch hardware wasn't where I thought we'd land at with my first comment, I somehow also have the feeling that that wasn't what GP had in mind either,.
    - 8mo ago
  - iso1631 8mo ago
    My laptop's 8 years old, if I can't get memory I'll just have to sweat it a little longer. Same with my NAS drive Same with work -- I've just ordered some replacements for 13 year old servers in one office, but if it was more economical to repair them
Silhouette 8mo ago
What we're seeing is the natural conclusion of VC distortion in a market. There is so much money being pumped into AI speculatively now that it's hurting normal and sustainable businesses in other parts of the economy. The solution might have to be mandatory rationing of some kind to avoid a situation where only a handful of AI giants are able to buy essential components. We can't just throw the rest of the economy under a bus to support the AI bubble for a few more months. I'm working with a business right now that would like to buy some new servers for sensible, boring business reasons. It is having trouble because the prices from their normal suppliers are now extremely high - if the components are even available at all. This business has nothing to do with AI or Big Tech and yet it's at risk of being unable to continue normal operations in much the same way that a business would be affected if the phone networks were all switched off or the water supply to its office was cut. We regulate those industries because their continued reasonable operation is essential to make sure everyone else can continue to operate reasonably as well.
- gck1 8mo ago
  I'm seeing the same thing. I was consulting a group of people in my city that wanted to digitize massive load of old VHS tapes. No AI, no crazy tech, just standard, boring storage+network infrastructure. I'm looking at the procurement sheet that I made for them a year ago. Half of the items are no longer available, while the other half became so expensive that we'd probably build 10 of such labs with these costs a year ago. I'm also looking at my home NAS right now - I pray not even a plastic clip breaks inside, because I'd have to shut it down. While these are still likely the first things that you'd think of being affected, I'm sure the effects are rippling through essentially every industry that utilizes these components in their supply chain. Which is probably - every industry nowadays?
- infecto 8mo ago
  I think that’s a massive stretch. What we are seeing is a new frontier in tech that nobody knows where it will land yet. Hyperscalers see a future where if they don’t build now that they might be left behind. Absolutely VC money is flowing around but I think it’s unclear where the cards fall yet. Not sure what you would regulate here. I hate the tripe that America and China are at war but I do think it’s not a great decision to stop the current work the west is doing as China is pushing full steam ahead.
infecto 8mo ago
Sounds like hyperbole. Yes the world is connected yes we are seeing shortages, yes the market is imperfect and it lags but this is how things get fixed. Prices are sorted out, manufacturers make bets on long term capacity. Some will be losers, some will be winners.
- embedding-shape 8mo ago
  My guess is that many of the current people saying "technology is over and no one will afford their own computer" might have been born after the previous shortages, so it's in reality their first shortage and they have no memories (nor interest reading about) the previous ones, that all eventually washed over, even if at those points there were also people claiming that "No one will have their own SSD in the future, because prices will always be super expensive for consumers from now on". That's my hypothesis I spent a whole of 30 seconds thinking about anyways.
  - gck1 8mo ago
    This is a different kind of shortage though. Previous ones were cyclical and caused by supply/demand mismatches or natural disasters. This one is structural. The manufacturers are actively choosing to prioritize AI because the margins are dramatically higher, and AI market has virtually unlimited money right now. > eventually washed over Eventually is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Several years of constrained supply have real consequences for people and businesses. Hardware manufacturers are saying most of their capacity is already sold out to AI customers through 2026, and possibly even through 2027 and 2028, with the rest of the markets getting what's left over. This is a fundamentally different market dynamic.
    - embedding-shape 8mo ago
      > caused by supply/demand mismatches How is that different from today? The scale might be different, but it's quite literally a "supply/demand mismatch" right now. I don't think what we're seeing today can be described as "structural", at least because it's way too short to make such proclamations today, if it ossifies, then yeah maybe I'd agree with you, it's become structural. > Several years of constrained supply have real consequences for people and businesses Indeed, but lets see if it'll go as far as being "several years", the prices already stopped increasing, and supply still isn't planned to be expanded, if either of those changes you might have a point, but as of today it seems like an exaggeration.
mr_toad 8mo ago
> We see that market is very irrational now and it can stay irrational That meme refers to speculation on stock market prices. Nobody is buying up RAM with the expectation of making speculative gains on it.
rlpb 8mo ago
> ...and it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech. Nah. For decades software engineers have been more expensive than the cost of buying the extra hardware needed for vastly inefficient software. There are orders of magnitude of inefficiency there. So there's a ton of slack in the world's software that can be taken up by software engineers while hardware is scarce, pushing back the date where there will really be a problem probably by decades more. Of course software engineers will see a problem though, because they'll have to learn to to write efficient software again. ie. "Great, but now make it work with less RAM" will be a thing again, instead of "It needs more RAM so order some as it's cheaper than your time to fix the code".

by gck1 8mo ago

embedding-shape 8mo ago

> it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech What does this even mean? I know people on the internet sometimes exaggerate, but I cannot even begin to find a more charitable meaning with this, what exactly will be "destroyed" in "tech" because of prices going up for a year or two?

gck1 8mo ago
Here's an easy experiment to conduct: look around the room at your home and count all the devices that have a CPU, RAM, SSD or HDD. Then take a look at your bank statement to see what are the services you pay for monthly that also require the same hardware. Now, imagine that these devices or services can no longer procure RAM, SSD or HDD. There's no more available supply for these components, because this is what's happening. Would you still be able to have these devices if they all broke tomorrow? What about your hypothetical Backblaze subscription? Would you still be able to have an off-site backup?
- embedding-shape 8mo ago
  > imagine that these devices or services can no longer procure RAM, SSD or HDD Why would I imagine something so far out from what will realistically happen? Again, a lot of doom and gloom over very unrealistic scenarios. Where are you even getting this from, YouTube channels? Of course if there is no RAM or flash-storage at all available, eventually hardware will be unfeasible. But when we've experienced these sort of things before, it eventually restores to "normal" prices, and there absolutely nothing pointing to what we're experiencing now to get even worse, if anything it's already stabilized.
  - iso1631 8mo ago
    You don't have to look too far back in history -- look at the supply squeeze during covid, or even just during the Suez closure by the Evergiven.
    - infecto 8mo ago
      [flagged]
  - ErneX 8mo ago
    Valve had to delay a bunch of new products already. They also had to effectively discontinue the non-OLED Steam Deck due to the increased prices. https://www.theverge.com/games/874196/valve-steam-machine-frame-controller-delay-pricing-memory-crisis https://www.theverge.com/games/874196/valve-steam-machine-fr...
    - embedding-shape 8mo ago
      Yeah, which shows that Valve don't think "these devices or services can no longer procure RAM, SSD or HDD" is actually what'll happen in reality, because then they'd have to cancel the hardware fully. Instead, they're delaying it.
      - ErneX 8mo ago
        With a likely price increase. Regarding OP, I don’t think they implied this will last forever, but is definitely concerning.
        embedding-shape 8mo ago
        I jumped into the discussion because of this hyperbole: > to destroy everything we know in tech Valve (temporarily) increasing the pricing of yet-to-launch hardware wasn't where I thought we'd land at with my first comment, I somehow also have the feeling that that wasn't what GP had in mind either,.
  - 8mo ago
- iso1631 8mo ago
  My laptop's 8 years old, if I can't get memory I'll just have to sweat it a little longer. Same with my NAS drive Same with work -- I've just ordered some replacements for 13 year old servers in one office, but if it was more economical to repair them

Silhouette 8mo ago

What we're seeing is the natural conclusion of VC distortion in a market. There is so much money being pumped into AI speculatively now that it's hurting normal and sustainable businesses in other parts of the economy. The solution might have to be mandatory rationing of some kind to avoid a situation where only a handful of AI giants are able to buy essential components. We can't just throw the rest of the economy under a bus to support the AI bubble for a few more months. I'm working with a business right now that would like to buy some new servers for sensible, boring business reasons. It is having trouble because the prices from their normal suppliers are now extremely high - if the components are even available at all. This business has nothing to do with AI or Big Tech and yet it's at risk of being unable to continue normal operations in much the same way that a business would be affected if the phone networks were all switched off or the water supply to its office was cut. We regulate those industries because their continued reasonable operation is essential to make sure everyone else can continue to operate reasonably as well.

gck1 8mo ago
I'm seeing the same thing. I was consulting a group of people in my city that wanted to digitize massive load of old VHS tapes. No AI, no crazy tech, just standard, boring storage+network infrastructure. I'm looking at the procurement sheet that I made for them a year ago. Half of the items are no longer available, while the other half became so expensive that we'd probably build 10 of such labs with these costs a year ago. I'm also looking at my home NAS right now - I pray not even a plastic clip breaks inside, because I'd have to shut it down. While these are still likely the first things that you'd think of being affected, I'm sure the effects are rippling through essentially every industry that utilizes these components in their supply chain. Which is probably - every industry nowadays?
infecto 8mo ago
I think that’s a massive stretch. What we are seeing is a new frontier in tech that nobody knows where it will land yet. Hyperscalers see a future where if they don’t build now that they might be left behind. Absolutely VC money is flowing around but I think it’s unclear where the cards fall yet. Not sure what you would regulate here. I hate the tripe that America and China are at war but I do think it’s not a great decision to stop the current work the west is doing as China is pushing full steam ahead.

infecto 8mo ago

Sounds like hyperbole. Yes the world is connected yes we are seeing shortages, yes the market is imperfect and it lags but this is how things get fixed. Prices are sorted out, manufacturers make bets on long term capacity. Some will be losers, some will be winners.

embedding-shape 8mo ago
My guess is that many of the current people saying "technology is over and no one will afford their own computer" might have been born after the previous shortages, so it's in reality their first shortage and they have no memories (nor interest reading about) the previous ones, that all eventually washed over, even if at those points there were also people claiming that "No one will have their own SSD in the future, because prices will always be super expensive for consumers from now on". That's my hypothesis I spent a whole of 30 seconds thinking about anyways.
- gck1 8mo ago
  This is a different kind of shortage though. Previous ones were cyclical and caused by supply/demand mismatches or natural disasters. This one is structural. The manufacturers are actively choosing to prioritize AI because the margins are dramatically higher, and AI market has virtually unlimited money right now. > eventually washed over Eventually is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Several years of constrained supply have real consequences for people and businesses. Hardware manufacturers are saying most of their capacity is already sold out to AI customers through 2026, and possibly even through 2027 and 2028, with the rest of the markets getting what's left over. This is a fundamentally different market dynamic.
  - embedding-shape 8mo ago
    > caused by supply/demand mismatches How is that different from today? The scale might be different, but it's quite literally a "supply/demand mismatch" right now. I don't think what we're seeing today can be described as "structural", at least because it's way too short to make such proclamations today, if it ossifies, then yeah maybe I'd agree with you, it's become structural. > Several years of constrained supply have real consequences for people and businesses Indeed, but lets see if it'll go as far as being "several years", the prices already stopped increasing, and supply still isn't planned to be expanded, if either of those changes you might have a point, but as of today it seems like an exaggeration.

mr_toad 8mo ago

> We see that market is very irrational now and it can stay irrational That meme refers to speculation on stock market prices. Nobody is buying up RAM with the expectation of making speculative gains on it.

rlpb 8mo ago

> ...and it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech. Nah. For decades software engineers have been more expensive than the cost of buying the extra hardware needed for vastly inefficient software. There are orders of magnitude of inefficiency there. So there's a ton of slack in the world's software that can be taken up by software engineers while hardware is scarce, pushing back the date where there will really be a problem probably by decades more. Of course software engineers will see a problem though, because they'll have to learn to to write efficient software again. ie. "Great, but now make it work with less RAM" will be a thing again, instead of "It needs more RAM so order some as it's cheaper than your time to fix the code".