5 ms·

Why tax something that the market will figure out? This is normal and things will sort themself out.

by infecto 8mo ago

dakolli 8mo ago
Because this perfect version of capitalism you think exists, doesn't. We live in a world with markets dominated by cartels of tech companies who don't play by the rules. Every other industry that impacts society in a negative way typically pays some sort of specialized tax to offset that, I don't know why these tech oligarchs shouldn't have too. It's wild how people just want to let them do whatever they want. Everyone says we need to deregulate tech, and certain industries to get ahead of China.. Isn't it funny how their largely government controlled economy (to a degree) is annihilating the west on all fronts economically. We need far more regulation. China will defeat the West solely because it regulates its billionaires, not the other way around like we have it in the West. And I hope so, the world is rooting for you China.
- infecto 8mo ago
  Way to put words in people mouths. Markets are imperfect but I do believe on average they are one of the better tools to solve supply and demand issues. I don’t know who will come out winners but I do agree that China did well taking the playbook from Singapore and navigating their country through incredible amounts of growth. They are still facing depressing housing prices and deflation in other parts of the economy. There are absolutely areas where markets breakdown, thinking problems where impacts are on longer horizons but for simple supply and demand like what we are seeing today, things will sort out in a couple years.
gck1 8mo ago
We see that market is very irrational now and it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech. By the time market figures things out, you may no longer have services, and hardware that you use daily. When such amounts of stupid money are pumped into a single industry, even if all AI companies went out of business tomorrow, it's going to take years for things to go back to normal. FWIW, I'm not advocating taxes, as I think that won't really do anything. I don't know what the solution is either.
- embedding-shape 8mo ago
  > it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech What does this even mean? I know people on the internet sometimes exaggerate, but I cannot even begin to find a more charitable meaning with this, what exactly will be "destroyed" in "tech" because of prices going up for a year or two?
  - gck1 8mo ago
    Here's an easy experiment to conduct: look around the room at your home and count all the devices that have a CPU, RAM, SSD or HDD. Then take a look at your bank statement to see what are the services you pay for monthly that also require the same hardware. Now, imagine that these devices or services can no longer procure RAM, SSD or HDD. There's no more available supply for these components, because this is what's happening. Would you still be able to have these devices if they all broke tomorrow? What about your hypothetical Backblaze subscription? Would you still be able to have an off-site backup?
    - embedding-shape 8mo ago
      > imagine that these devices or services can no longer procure RAM, SSD or HDD Why would I imagine something so far out from what will realistically happen? Again, a lot of doom and gloom over very unrealistic scenarios. Where are you even getting this from, YouTube channels? Of course if there is no RAM or flash-storage at all available, eventually hardware will be unfeasible. But when we've experienced these sort of things before, it eventually restores to "normal" prices, and there absolutely nothing pointing to what we're experiencing now to get even worse, if anything it's already stabilized.
      - iso1631 8mo ago
        You don't have to look too far back in history -- look at the supply squeeze during covid, or even just during the Suez closure by the Evergiven.
rchaud 8mo ago
Markets only "figure things out" in a petri dish economy where: 1) There are no barriers to entry for competitors (e.g. protectionist tariffs, equal access to capital for everyone) 2) There are perfect substitutes available, so transitioning to a competitor is seamless and free (e.g. no requirement to store data in Country X, no vendor lock-in, no security compliance) 3) The industry is not a "natural monopoly" when only a handful of vendors can operate due to capital investment and national/global distribution required (see power utilities, telecoms, petrochemicals) 4) Profitability attracts competitors (won't happen because of #3), but heavy competition prevents abnormal profits from accumulating to a single player (happens because of #1, #2 and #3) When markets don't figure things out, as is the case around the world, you get a tangled mess of market failures, government intervention and lobbying to neuter proposed interventions.
- infecto 8mo ago
  Markets are never perfect but over the course of history they are a pretty good mechanism to solve these type of problems. Not sure why we think taxing hyperscalers differently is the answer. Government usually does worse than the market when it comes to sorting it out. My argument is not that market is perfect but that the alternatives are probably far worse, like a new tax on a specific group of companies.
  - wolvesechoes 8mo ago
    Market only exists due to government.
    - infecto 8mo ago
      Yes, and? That still does not mean we should add arbitrary taxes for a supply/demand issue.
  - rchaud 8mo ago
    The course of history, from borders to leadership choices and technological advances like seafaring has been determined to a much greater extent by organized religion and state-sanctioned warfare than it has by the open and free operation of markets.
cmxch 8mo ago
They didn’t the last two memory crunches. Litigative action figured it out first.
- Auracle 8mo ago
  Price fixing is not a free market, and that’s (probably) not what’s happening this time. It’s simple supply and demand.
63stack 8mo ago
People keep parroting this but I don't see GPU prices sorting themselves out.
- infecto 8mo ago
  “Parroting” is not very constructive language but I will respond. How would you propose solving it? My opinion is that government cannot solve the problem better than the market. That’s not to say the market is ideal or perfect but one of the better tools available. GPU prices might stay high for a number of years. I don’t think that is inherently bad. Constraints breed innovation and help guide market participants into the right direction. I think folks often get hung up on the market thinking it’s a perfect tool or it will realign issues instantly. That’s not true. Demand is high, price catches up and eventually either that thesis behind the demand is correct and eventually supply increases or that thesis is proven wrong and demand collapses below original baseline. Obviously that’s a simplified version of it above but I don’t know what folks like yourself are poking. How is a tax on hyperscalers effective? I suspect most folks repeat this idea because they are in the anti-AI camp. Should we tax EV manufacturers because they may be buying up battery supply? I don’t know if I want the government making those kind of decisions.
  - 63stack 8mo ago
    It (GPU prices getting out of hand) started when, 2012? What's constructive in saying "the market will correct itself" after 14 years of no sign of that happening? I don't know what the solution is since I'm not an economist, but I also don't have to be a pilot to declare someone fucked up when I see a helicopter on a tree. EVs are a very tangible thing that are on the road, compare that with crypto and NFT which is ??????
    - infecto 8mo ago
      Can you use less inflammatory language and be more critical in your thought? Your point, if there is any, is drowned by your lack of command of constructive discussion. Who are you to decide what is tangible and what is not? That’s my whole point. GPU prices are still not crazy on a $ / performance scale, especially if you do a rough chart of it over time. Certainly there are carve outs, the 5090 is still hard to get and charges $1k+ premium over msrp.

Why tax something that the market will figure out? This is normal and things will sort themself out.

by infecto 8mo ago

Why tax something that the market will figure out? This is normal and things will sort themself out.

Because this perfect version of capitalism you think exists, doesn't. We live in a world with markets dominated by cartels of tech companies who don't play by the rules. Every other industry that impacts society in a negative way typically pays some sort of specialized tax to offset that, I don't know why these tech oligarchs shouldn't have too. It's wild how people just want to let them do whatever they want. Everyone says we need to deregulate tech, and certain industries to get ahead of China.. Isn't it funny how their largely government controlled economy (to a degree) is annihilating the west on all fronts economically. We need far more regulation. China will defeat the West solely because it regulates its billionaires, not the other way around like we have it in the West. And I hope so, the world is rooting for you China.

infecto 8mo ago
Way to put words in people mouths. Markets are imperfect but I do believe on average they are one of the better tools to solve supply and demand issues. I don’t know who will come out winners but I do agree that China did well taking the playbook from Singapore and navigating their country through incredible amounts of growth. They are still facing depressing housing prices and deflation in other parts of the economy. There are absolutely areas where markets breakdown, thinking problems where impacts are on longer horizons but for simple supply and demand like what we are seeing today, things will sort out in a couple years.

gck1 8mo ago

We see that market is very irrational now and it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech. By the time market figures things out, you may no longer have services, and hardware that you use daily. When such amounts of stupid money are pumped into a single industry, even if all AI companies went out of business tomorrow, it's going to take years for things to go back to normal. FWIW, I'm not advocating taxes, as I think that won't really do anything. I don't know what the solution is either.

embedding-shape 8mo ago
> it can stay irrational for long enough to destroy everything we know in tech What does this even mean? I know people on the internet sometimes exaggerate, but I cannot even begin to find a more charitable meaning with this, what exactly will be "destroyed" in "tech" because of prices going up for a year or two?
- gck1 8mo ago
  Here's an easy experiment to conduct: look around the room at your home and count all the devices that have a CPU, RAM, SSD or HDD. Then take a look at your bank statement to see what are the services you pay for monthly that also require the same hardware. Now, imagine that these devices or services can no longer procure RAM, SSD or HDD. There's no more available supply for these components, because this is what's happening. Would you still be able to have these devices if they all broke tomorrow? What about your hypothetical Backblaze subscription? Would you still be able to have an off-site backup?
  - embedding-shape 8mo ago
    > imagine that these devices or services can no longer procure RAM, SSD or HDD Why would I imagine something so far out from what will realistically happen? Again, a lot of doom and gloom over very unrealistic scenarios. Where are you even getting this from, YouTube channels? Of course if there is no RAM or flash-storage at all available, eventually hardware will be unfeasible. But when we've experienced these sort of things before, it eventually restores to "normal" prices, and there absolutely nothing pointing to what we're experiencing now to get even worse, if anything it's already stabilized.
    - iso1631 8mo ago
      You don't have to look too far back in history -- look at the supply squeeze during covid, or even just during the Suez closure by the Evergiven.

rchaud 8mo ago

Markets only "figure things out" in a petri dish economy where: 1) There are no barriers to entry for competitors (e.g. protectionist tariffs, equal access to capital for everyone) 2) There are perfect substitutes available, so transitioning to a competitor is seamless and free (e.g. no requirement to store data in Country X, no vendor lock-in, no security compliance) 3) The industry is not a "natural monopoly" when only a handful of vendors can operate due to capital investment and national/global distribution required (see power utilities, telecoms, petrochemicals) 4) Profitability attracts competitors (won't happen because of #3), but heavy competition prevents abnormal profits from accumulating to a single player (happens because of #1, #2 and #3) When markets don't figure things out, as is the case around the world, you get a tangled mess of market failures, government intervention and lobbying to neuter proposed interventions.

infecto 8mo ago
Markets are never perfect but over the course of history they are a pretty good mechanism to solve these type of problems. Not sure why we think taxing hyperscalers differently is the answer. Government usually does worse than the market when it comes to sorting it out. My argument is not that market is perfect but that the alternatives are probably far worse, like a new tax on a specific group of companies.
- wolvesechoes 8mo ago
  Market only exists due to government.
  - infecto 8mo ago
    Yes, and? That still does not mean we should add arbitrary taxes for a supply/demand issue.
- rchaud 8mo ago
  The course of history, from borders to leadership choices and technological advances like seafaring has been determined to a much greater extent by organized religion and state-sanctioned warfare than it has by the open and free operation of markets.

cmxch 8mo ago

They didn’t the last two memory crunches. Litigative action figured it out first.

Auracle 8mo ago
Price fixing is not a free market, and that’s (probably) not what’s happening this time. It’s simple supply and demand.

63stack 8mo ago

People keep parroting this but I don't see GPU prices sorting themselves out.

infecto 8mo ago
“Parroting” is not very constructive language but I will respond. How would you propose solving it? My opinion is that government cannot solve the problem better than the market. That’s not to say the market is ideal or perfect but one of the better tools available. GPU prices might stay high for a number of years. I don’t think that is inherently bad. Constraints breed innovation and help guide market participants into the right direction. I think folks often get hung up on the market thinking it’s a perfect tool or it will realign issues instantly. That’s not true. Demand is high, price catches up and eventually either that thesis behind the demand is correct and eventually supply increases or that thesis is proven wrong and demand collapses below original baseline. Obviously that’s a simplified version of it above but I don’t know what folks like yourself are poking. How is a tax on hyperscalers effective? I suspect most folks repeat this idea because they are in the anti-AI camp. Should we tax EV manufacturers because they may be buying up battery supply? I don’t know if I want the government making those kind of decisions.
- 63stack 8mo ago
  It (GPU prices getting out of hand) started when, 2012? What's constructive in saying "the market will correct itself" after 14 years of no sign of that happening? I don't know what the solution is since I'm not an economist, but I also don't have to be a pilot to declare someone fucked up when I see a helicopter on a tree. EVs are a very tangible thing that are on the road, compare that with crypto and NFT which is ??????
  - infecto 8mo ago
    Can you use less inflammatory language and be more critical in your thought? Your point, if there is any, is drowned by your lack of command of constructive discussion. Who are you to decide what is tangible and what is not? That’s my whole point. GPU prices are still not crazy on a $ / performance scale, especially if you do a rough chart of it over time. Certainly there are carve outs, the 5090 is still hard to get and charges $1k+ premium over msrp.