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Kalshi and Polymarket take a cut and is making the markets as well. Yes you can create a market and fund it yourself, but almost no one ever does this. People h
by dakolli 8mo ago
Kalshi and Polymarket take a cut and is making the markets as well. Yes you can create a market and fund it yourself, but almost no one ever does this. People have been trying to make true prediction exchange markets like this 3 decades, its basically impossible without professional market makers.
Its largely impossible to fund "organic decentralized" prediction markets because the vast majority of money that goes into them is "dumb money" and there will always be sharp money that takes their cut, and has substantially more funds. Betting markets are zero sum, so the smarter participants is always going to absorb the entire bankroll of the dumber participants over time..
The closest thing to what you describe were BTC dice games, which is kind decentralized, but prediction markets are impossible, some smart guy is always going to be there to make a more accurate fair on a market and eat all the liquidity from the little guys.
- modo_mario 8mo ago>so the smarter participants is always going to absorb the entire bankroll of the dumber participants over time.. Isn't that entirely the point? I've heard some arguments about insider trading but even there i've heard it argued that that's part of the point.
- pumpbro 8mo agoThe real friction isn't just the house cut; it's the latency between centralized books and decentralized liquidity. Sharps aren't just smarter; they're faster. Most "organic" volume gets eaten by bots arb-ing the spread between Poly, Kalshi, and offshore sportsbooks the second a headline hits. I’ve been running a cross-book arb alert tool to track these inefficiencies. If you aren't monitoring the delta across venues, you’re essentially paying a hidden tax to the guys with better API access. Edge is a function of infrastructure, not just conviction.