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Isn't this somewhat like how these new crypto prediction markets work? There is no house taking a cut, all of the winnings get paid out.

dakolli 9mo ago
Kalshi and Polymarket take a cut and is making the markets as well. Yes you can create a market and fund it yourself, but almost no one ever does this. People have been trying to make true prediction exchange markets like this 3 decades, its basically impossible without professional market makers. Its largely impossible to fund "organic decentralized" prediction markets because the vast majority of money that goes into them is "dumb money" and there will always be sharp money that takes their cut, and has substantially more funds. Betting markets are zero sum, so the smarter participants is always going to absorb the entire bankroll of the dumber participants over time.. The closest thing to what you describe were BTC dice games, which is kind decentralized, but prediction markets are impossible, some smart guy is always going to be there to make a more accurate fair on a market and eat all the liquidity from the little guys.
- modo_mario 9mo ago
  >so the smarter participants is always going to absorb the entire bankroll of the dumber participants over time.. Isn't that entirely the point? I've heard some arguments about insider trading but even there i've heard it argued that that's part of the point.
- pumpbro 9mo ago
  The real friction isn't just the house cut; it's the latency between centralized books and decentralized liquidity. Sharps aren't just smarter; they're faster. Most "organic" volume gets eaten by bots arb-ing the spread between Poly, Kalshi, and offshore sportsbooks the second a headline hits. I’ve been running a cross-book arb alert tool to track these inefficiencies. If you aren't monitoring the delta across venues, you’re essentially paying a hidden tax to the guys with better API access. Edge is a function of infrastructure, not just conviction.
Throwagainaway 9mo ago
with their 5 minute crypto thing, its almost gambling at this point but there is still the point of dakolli which I myself couldn't have written better. My point is that maybe federated casino where there is no casino but sort of p2p on a completely fair 50/50 dice of sorts similar to how casinos operate would be more beneficial than casinos existing with their 3% cuts and the house3% always winning. At the very least, its possible to do so and similar to Kalshi/Polymarket I feel like its definitely possible. I don't want to EVER touch gambling but I think its addicting and maybe it can atleast help the addicts if they are in a fair game compared to a rigged game towards the house.

dakolli 9mo ago

Kalshi and Polymarket take a cut and is making the markets as well. Yes you can create a market and fund it yourself, but almost no one ever does this. People have been trying to make true prediction exchange markets like this 3 decades, its basically impossible without professional market makers. Its largely impossible to fund "organic decentralized" prediction markets because the vast majority of money that goes into them is "dumb money" and there will always be sharp money that takes their cut, and has substantially more funds. Betting markets are zero sum, so the smarter participants is always going to absorb the entire bankroll of the dumber participants over time.. The closest thing to what you describe were BTC dice games, which is kind decentralized, but prediction markets are impossible, some smart guy is always going to be there to make a more accurate fair on a market and eat all the liquidity from the little guys.

modo_mario 9mo ago
>so the smarter participants is always going to absorb the entire bankroll of the dumber participants over time.. Isn't that entirely the point? I've heard some arguments about insider trading but even there i've heard it argued that that's part of the point.
pumpbro 9mo ago
The real friction isn't just the house cut; it's the latency between centralized books and decentralized liquidity. Sharps aren't just smarter; they're faster. Most "organic" volume gets eaten by bots arb-ing the spread between Poly, Kalshi, and offshore sportsbooks the second a headline hits. I’ve been running a cross-book arb alert tool to track these inefficiencies. If you aren't monitoring the delta across venues, you’re essentially paying a hidden tax to the guys with better API access. Edge is a function of infrastructure, not just conviction.

Throwagainaway 9mo ago

with their 5 minute crypto thing, its almost gambling at this point but there is still the point of dakolli which I myself couldn't have written better. My point is that maybe federated casino where there is no casino but sort of p2p on a completely fair 50/50 dice of sorts similar to how casinos operate would be more beneficial than casinos existing with their 3% cuts and the house3% always winning. At the very least, its possible to do so and similar to Kalshi/Polymarket I feel like its definitely possible. I don't want to EVER touch gambling but I think its addicting and maybe it can atleast help the addicts if they are in a fair game compared to a rigged game towards the house.