Sure. To your point, my P(doom) is 0.1, but the reason it's that low is that I expect a lot of people to use sub-threshold AI to do very dangerous things which

Sure. To your point, my P(doom) is 0.1, but the reason it's that low is that I expect a lot of people to use sub-threshold AI to do very dangerous things which render us either (1) unwilling or (2) unable to develop post-threshold AI. The (1) case includes people actually taking this all seriously enough, which as per your final paragraph, I agree with you that people are currently not. Things like Roko's basilisk are a strict subset of that 0.1; there's a lot of other dooms besides that one.