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Good article. It seems like a consequence is that publicity outside Iran is only going to be effective to the extent that it mobilizes people inside Iran? (Wi

Good article. It seems like a consequence is that publicity outside Iran is only going to be effective to the extent that it mobilizes people inside Iran? (With the possible exception of getting Trump's attention, but I don't think air strikes are going to do it?) And the government of Iran seems very willing to kill people. I don't see this ending well.

JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
> With the possible exception of getting Trump's attention Or Tel Aviv, Rihyadh, New Delhi or any other one of the hosts of Iran’s adversaries and enemies. > the government of Iran seems very willing to kill people I find it helpful to decompose states as monoliths in these cases. Besides attracting an intervention, the purpose of such a protest would also include motivating state elements to attempt a coup.
- alephnerd 8mo ago
  Riyadh (along with the rest of the Gulf) and New Delhi are quietly lobbying against some sort of American action, as could be seen with India very recently choosing to switch their UN vote on Israeli settlements from abstaining to against. And the KSA+UAE quickly signing mutual defense pacts with Pakistan+India (reduces their risk of being striked during a US-Iran War as well as forcibly prevents Pakistan and India from entering another war after Operation Sindoor). TLV (already know) and Islamabad are lobbying the US in favor of striking the regime, as can be seen with the prominence Asim Munir, Muhammad Aamer, and Asim Malik in acting as a backchannel and unofficial advisers to the US on Iran under the Trump admin as well as Netanyahu's continued lobbying for a stronger response to Iran for decades.
  - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
    > Riyadh (along with the rest of the Gulf) and New Delhi are quietly lobbying against some sort of American action Nobody wants missiles flying over their homelands. At the same time, both goverments have been supportive of America's non-proliferation work in Iran. My broad point is there are plenty of folks who may be open to covertly supporting the protesters beyond America blowing blowing god knows what up.
    - alephnerd 8mo ago
      > Nobody wants missiles flying over their homelands. At the same time, both goverments have been supportive of America's non-proliferation work in Iran. Absolutely > My broad point is there are plenty of folks who may be open to covertly supporting the protesters beyond America blowing blowing god knows what up. Makes sense. And yes that's true! Also, despite all the bots on this page and any other Iran page on HN (pro-protest accounts in Iran please, please, please follow OpSec best practices and remove any personal references of yourself on HN), the reality is a large portion of Iranians do want the regime to end. They most likely do not want the Shah, but they are tired of the incumbent regime as well. And unlike during the Green Movement, Iran is much more isolated.
zozbot234 8mo ago
According to betting exchanges air strikes on Iran are quite unlikely in the very near term, but become more likely than not by this summer or the end of the year. So this doesn't seem to be a matter of near-term attention, more of a prediction that the Iranian government will not manage to shift their stance in a more favorable direction.
- treis 8mo ago
  There's been a massive movement of air assets towards Iran over the last week or so. That doesn't necessarily mean a strike will happen but it's clearly a threat.

JumpCrisscross 8mo ago

> With the possible exception of getting Trump's attention Or Tel Aviv, Rihyadh, New Delhi or any other one of the hosts of Iran’s adversaries and enemies. > the government of Iran seems very willing to kill people I find it helpful to decompose states as monoliths in these cases. Besides attracting an intervention, the purpose of such a protest would also include motivating state elements to attempt a coup.

alephnerd 8mo ago
Riyadh (along with the rest of the Gulf) and New Delhi are quietly lobbying against some sort of American action, as could be seen with India very recently choosing to switch their UN vote on Israeli settlements from abstaining to against. And the KSA+UAE quickly signing mutual defense pacts with Pakistan+India (reduces their risk of being striked during a US-Iran War as well as forcibly prevents Pakistan and India from entering another war after Operation Sindoor). TLV (already know) and Islamabad are lobbying the US in favor of striking the regime, as can be seen with the prominence Asim Munir, Muhammad Aamer, and Asim Malik in acting as a backchannel and unofficial advisers to the US on Iran under the Trump admin as well as Netanyahu's continued lobbying for a stronger response to Iran for decades.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
  > Riyadh (along with the rest of the Gulf) and New Delhi are quietly lobbying against some sort of American action Nobody wants missiles flying over their homelands. At the same time, both goverments have been supportive of America's non-proliferation work in Iran. My broad point is there are plenty of folks who may be open to covertly supporting the protesters beyond America blowing blowing god knows what up.
  - alephnerd 8mo ago
    > Nobody wants missiles flying over their homelands. At the same time, both goverments have been supportive of America's non-proliferation work in Iran. Absolutely > My broad point is there are plenty of folks who may be open to covertly supporting the protesters beyond America blowing blowing god knows what up. Makes sense. And yes that's true! Also, despite all the bots on this page and any other Iran page on HN (pro-protest accounts in Iran please, please, please follow OpSec best practices and remove any personal references of yourself on HN), the reality is a large portion of Iranians do want the regime to end. They most likely do not want the Shah, but they are tired of the incumbent regime as well. And unlike during the Green Movement, Iran is much more isolated.

zozbot234 8mo ago

According to betting exchanges air strikes on Iran are quite unlikely in the very near term, but become more likely than not by this summer or the end of the year. So this doesn't seem to be a matter of near-term attention, more of a prediction that the Iranian government will not manage to shift their stance in a more favorable direction.

treis 8mo ago
There's been a massive movement of air assets towards Iran over the last week or so. That doesn't necessarily mean a strike will happen but it's clearly a threat.