4 ms·

> At Amirkabir University of Technology in Tehran, students dressed in black shouted “Long Live the Shah,” a reference to Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s

by mcny 7mo ago

> At Amirkabir University of Technology in Tehran, students dressed in black shouted “Long Live the Shah,” a reference to Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last monarch, who has emerged as a leader of the recent protests. This is unfortunate and gives the regime a chance to say "see, these people are puppets of the monarchy". I feel like the people who want a monarchy installed are trying to fish in troubled waters.

ukblewis 7mo ago
[flagged]
- thomassmith65 7mo ago
  The points are valid, but why the personal insults? Re: the grandparent comment. "Javid Shah" is one of the main chants of the recent protests. It's not particularly specific. Reza Pahlavi is the main figurehead of the opposition. He's a likely candidate to preside over a transitional government if this new revolution succeeds. The regime's positioning is largely irrelevant now. The people are liable to adopt the opposite position simply because they see the regime as their enemy.
ifwinterco 7mo ago
Not puppets of the monarchy per se but at least some of them may be puppets of foreign actors who are backing the monarchy. Honestly very hard to say, I don’t know what to believe about the Iran situation. I think it’s pretty much impossible to get a good understanding of it from a western country
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > Honestly very hard to say It really isn't. Inflation at a fraction of Iran's prompts governments to change in any democracy.
  - ifwinterco 7mo ago
    What I mean is two things are true at once: 1) Iran's government has not done a good job of running the country and is therefore genuinely unpopular among a significant percentage of the population. 2) Iran's current government has powerful enemies (US, UK and of course a country in the Middle East all really hate the Iranian regime) and those enemies are actively trying to destabilise it. So it's really hard from the perspective of being in a western country to work out how much of the protests are genuinely endogenous to Iran and how much is an intelligence operation, because it's clearly not 0%
    - deleted 7mo ago
      [deleted]
    - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
      > it's really hard from the perspective of being in a western country to work out how much of the protests are genuinely endogenous to Iran and how much is an intelligence operation, because it's clearly not 0% Intelligence assets are generally covert. It's incredibly difficult to engineer a protest–particularly in a repressive regime–out of nothing. Like half of the CIA's history in the Cold War was trying and failing to do this.
      - ifwinterco 7mo ago
        That's what I'm saying though, it's not out of nothing, people have legitimate grievances and at the same time there is probably at least some foreign influence. It's not either/or, it's (probably) a bit of both. But like I said, I'm not there, so I don't know the truth and there's no way for me to find it out. My basic point is just that you can't trust what you read in the papers because the Soviet Union is not the only state to engage in propaganda
        JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
        > It's not either/or, it's (probably) a bit of both It's never purely one or the other. But it's also never predominantly foreign action. Again, it's incredibly difficult to do that, and not for lack of trying.
JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> gives the regime a chance to say "see, these people are puppets of the monarchy" Regime isn't the messaging target. Foreign actors are. And rightly or wrongly, desperate people will choose the icons they have, and the set to choose from is generally those that are helping and those the current regime despises. The first set is scarce. So we're left with the second.

by mcny 7mo ago

ukblewis 7mo ago

[flagged]

thomassmith65 7mo ago
The points are valid, but why the personal insults? Re: the grandparent comment. "Javid Shah" is one of the main chants of the recent protests. It's not particularly specific. Reza Pahlavi is the main figurehead of the opposition. He's a likely candidate to preside over a transitional government if this new revolution succeeds. The regime's positioning is largely irrelevant now. The people are liable to adopt the opposite position simply because they see the regime as their enemy.

ifwinterco 7mo ago

Not puppets of the monarchy per se but at least some of them may be puppets of foreign actors who are backing the monarchy. Honestly very hard to say, I don’t know what to believe about the Iran situation. I think it’s pretty much impossible to get a good understanding of it from a western country

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> Honestly very hard to say It really isn't. Inflation at a fraction of Iran's prompts governments to change in any democracy.
- ifwinterco 7mo ago
  What I mean is two things are true at once: 1) Iran's government has not done a good job of running the country and is therefore genuinely unpopular among a significant percentage of the population. 2) Iran's current government has powerful enemies (US, UK and of course a country in the Middle East all really hate the Iranian regime) and those enemies are actively trying to destabilise it. So it's really hard from the perspective of being in a western country to work out how much of the protests are genuinely endogenous to Iran and how much is an intelligence operation, because it's clearly not 0%
  - deleted 7mo ago
    [deleted]
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    > it's really hard from the perspective of being in a western country to work out how much of the protests are genuinely endogenous to Iran and how much is an intelligence operation, because it's clearly not 0% Intelligence assets are generally covert. It's incredibly difficult to engineer a protest–particularly in a repressive regime–out of nothing. Like half of the CIA's history in the Cold War was trying and failing to do this.
    - ifwinterco 7mo ago
      That's what I'm saying though, it's not out of nothing, people have legitimate grievances and at the same time there is probably at least some foreign influence. It's not either/or, it's (probably) a bit of both. But like I said, I'm not there, so I don't know the truth and there's no way for me to find it out. My basic point is just that you can't trust what you read in the papers because the Soviet Union is not the only state to engage in propaganda
      - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
        > It's not either/or, it's (probably) a bit of both It's never purely one or the other. But it's also never predominantly foreign action. Again, it's incredibly difficult to do that, and not for lack of trying.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago

> gives the regime a chance to say "see, these people are puppets of the monarchy" Regime isn't the messaging target. Foreign actors are. And rightly or wrongly, desperate people will choose the icons they have, and the set to choose from is generally those that are helping and those the current regime despises. The first set is scarce. So we're left with the second.