4 ms·

The domestic industry is still there, only instead of mass-market DRAM it has started making higher-valued varieties of the same stuff. If there's a trade war,

The domestic industry is still there, only instead of mass-market DRAM it has started making higher-valued varieties of the same stuff. If there's a trade war, they can easily reconvert to making the mass-market stuff, just at much higher cost. You can't expect more than that, since they never really were as big or as low-cost as the lowest cost suppliers can be in normal times. That's not "losing" capacity, it's just acknowledging that you can't create capacity out of thin air.

kyralis 9mo ago
> If there's a trade war, they can easily reconvert to making the mass-market stuff, just at much higher cost. "easily" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Depending on the good and what they switch to making, this may neither be easy nor quick.
Espressosaurus 9mo ago
No, the domestic industry stagnates (at best) or disappears (at worst). You can't just spin up a 2nm wafer fab when the latest you've been running is a 300nm process. Compare: US shipbuilding industry to China or SK.
- zozbot234 9mo ago
  We don't want to spin up wafer fabs because, historically, they had a tendency to turn into Superfund sites. That's why the more modern approach is to build the fab in the middle of a frickin' desert.
  - ahartmetz 9mo ago
    Historically, but likely not anymore. You wouldn't be allowed to casually poison the ground in a Western factory anymore and we have the technology to keep the environment mostly clean. I don't even see it being very expensive compared to other fab costs. Have a sealed floor and proper waste / exhaust processing, don't spill in the first place. Things must be extremely well controlled anyway.
youarentrightjr 9mo ago
> If there's a trade war, they can easily reconvert to making the mass-market stuff Factories, tooling, supply chains, and engineering knowledge aren't fungible in the way they would need to be for your statement to be true.
- timschmidt 9mo ago
  Different types of DRAM can literally be made from the same already-etched wafer. The DRAM bits themselves don't change at all. What's different between DDR4, DDR5, and HBM is the IO interface to the chip. Changing this does not require significant retooling or relearning.
  - pdhborges 9mo ago
    Does that mean CXMT is one inch away from also eating into the DDR5 market?
    - econ 9mo ago
      They will eventually eat everything while they laugh at us. Why would you build a rail network if it isn't profitable? Why build anything if it isn't profitable? Why would you even house people if the profit isn't guaranteed to be as big as other sectors? Everyone wanted denarius then escudos then guilders then pounds then dollars and soon yuan. They make stuff over there, you can buy it with yuan. I think India might come after that but Africa is sure to follow. Give it a few hundred years.
    - timschmidt 9mo ago
      They're still at somewhat of a process disadvantage, but they have demonstrated an ability to produce DDR4 on older processes than it's typically been produced on. So it stands to reason that their process disadvantage will not stop them from producing DDR5 at scale. Their DDR5 will just use a little more silicon, and squeeze the jigglyness from a few more electrons, but in this market, who cares if RAM cost 15% more to make and was 15% less efficient to run, if it's available to purchase at all.
  - 9mo ago
zelphirkalt 9mo ago
Higher valued varieties, or just higher priced varieties, that no one wants to buy?
mitthrowaway2 9mo ago
If the domestic industry had the capability of competing with China on mass-market goods at a profit but just chooses not to in order to pursue a higher-profitability niche, why not simply grow and do both at the same time, instead of yielding the mass market to China? In my mind, if it can't do that, then it can't make the volume that China does at the cost that China does, which means it really isn't as capable as Chinese industry. Perhaps at one time it could have, but those muscles have atrophied.
- zozbot234 9mo ago
  Because by pursuing a more profitable niche, you can grow quicker and make more profit. If you really want to do both, you enter the mass market from above, with only slightly higher quality products than what the market leader offers. And you do that after your position in the more profitable niches has long been secured. It's silly to do it any other way. > which means it really isn't as capable as Chinese industry. But this was always true. There was never really a time when Western industry was producing as much and as cheaply as China is today - that's the whole point. It makes more sense to diversify away from that, because non-trivial real-world markets will always reward increased variety.

kyralis 9mo ago

> If there's a trade war, they can easily reconvert to making the mass-market stuff, just at much higher cost. "easily" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Depending on the good and what they switch to making, this may neither be easy nor quick.

Espressosaurus 9mo ago

No, the domestic industry stagnates (at best) or disappears (at worst). You can't just spin up a 2nm wafer fab when the latest you've been running is a 300nm process. Compare: US shipbuilding industry to China or SK.

zozbot234 9mo ago
We don't want to spin up wafer fabs because, historically, they had a tendency to turn into Superfund sites. That's why the more modern approach is to build the fab in the middle of a frickin' desert.
- ahartmetz 9mo ago
  Historically, but likely not anymore. You wouldn't be allowed to casually poison the ground in a Western factory anymore and we have the technology to keep the environment mostly clean. I don't even see it being very expensive compared to other fab costs. Have a sealed floor and proper waste / exhaust processing, don't spill in the first place. Things must be extremely well controlled anyway.

youarentrightjr 9mo ago

> If there's a trade war, they can easily reconvert to making the mass-market stuff Factories, tooling, supply chains, and engineering knowledge aren't fungible in the way they would need to be for your statement to be true.

timschmidt 9mo ago
Different types of DRAM can literally be made from the same already-etched wafer. The DRAM bits themselves don't change at all. What's different between DDR4, DDR5, and HBM is the IO interface to the chip. Changing this does not require significant retooling or relearning.
- pdhborges 9mo ago
  Does that mean CXMT is one inch away from also eating into the DDR5 market?
  - econ 9mo ago
    They will eventually eat everything while they laugh at us. Why would you build a rail network if it isn't profitable? Why build anything if it isn't profitable? Why would you even house people if the profit isn't guaranteed to be as big as other sectors? Everyone wanted denarius then escudos then guilders then pounds then dollars and soon yuan. They make stuff over there, you can buy it with yuan. I think India might come after that but Africa is sure to follow. Give it a few hundred years.
  - timschmidt 9mo ago
    They're still at somewhat of a process disadvantage, but they have demonstrated an ability to produce DDR4 on older processes than it's typically been produced on. So it stands to reason that their process disadvantage will not stop them from producing DDR5 at scale. Their DDR5 will just use a little more silicon, and squeeze the jigglyness from a few more electrons, but in this market, who cares if RAM cost 15% more to make and was 15% less efficient to run, if it's available to purchase at all.
- 9mo ago

zelphirkalt 9mo ago

Higher valued varieties, or just higher priced varieties, that no one wants to buy?

mitthrowaway2 9mo ago

If the domestic industry had the capability of competing with China on mass-market goods at a profit but just chooses not to in order to pursue a higher-profitability niche, why not simply grow and do both at the same time, instead of yielding the mass market to China? In my mind, if it can't do that, then it can't make the volume that China does at the cost that China does, which means it really isn't as capable as Chinese industry. Perhaps at one time it could have, but those muscles have atrophied.

zozbot234 9mo ago
Because by pursuing a more profitable niche, you can grow quicker and make more profit. If you really want to do both, you enter the mass market from above, with only slightly higher quality products than what the market leader offers. And you do that after your position in the more profitable niches has long been secured. It's silly to do it any other way. > which means it really isn't as capable as Chinese industry. But this was always true. There was never really a time when Western industry was producing as much and as cheaply as China is today - that's the whole point. It makes more sense to diversify away from that, because non-trivial real-world markets will always reward increased variety.