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You can't be sure that they are an insider or lucky, just from onchain data.
by genidoi 8mo ago
You can't be sure that they are an insider or lucky, just from onchain data.
- bergen 8mo agoIf they make single market predictions with high accuracy it is very very likely they are
- genidoi 8mo agoNo vigilant insider is making a series of "single market predictions with high accuracy" on the same account. They would make unlinkable bets on fresh accounts.
- BoxFour 8mo ago> No vigilant insider is making a series of "single market predictions with high accuracy" on the same account. There seem to be quite a few non-vigilant insiders. That's the very premise of the post we're discussing. This is unsurprising to anyone who's seen the various ways people get busted for insider trading in equities.
- meetingthrower 8mo agoAlso insider trading is A-OK on prediction markets!